Core conclusion
Recycled plastics and EVA prices rise:
Recycled plastics: in 2022, the price of r-PET still keeps soaring. According to the statistics of S & P global, the price of recycled transparent PET sheet in Asia was US $985 / MT on April 15, up (+ 2.1%) from last week. At present, many enterprises around the world have successively laid out r-PET production lines, but it is still difficult to alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand in the short term. The continuous overweight of EU plastic restrictions has exacerbated the inversion of recycled materials to the price of raw materials.
EVA: EVA quoted 24300 yuan / ton this week, with the price of + 1.25% month on month. The price of raw material vinyl acetate is strong, and the cost support remains. In terms of supply and demand, recently affected by the epidemic, the manufacturer's shipment has a small impact, and the market supply is still low. On the demand side, there is strong support for photovoltaic demand.
Special recommendation of this week: the high growth of photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to drive the continuous increase of soda ash demand
Photovoltaic glass is expected to drive the continuous improvement of soda ash demand, and the tight balance of soda ash supply is expected to be maintained. In 2021, the global PV installed capacity will reach 170gw, and the new PV installed capacity in China will be nearly 55gw. According to CPIA data, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, China's average annual new photovoltaic installed capacity may exceed 75gw. The increase of photovoltaic installed capacity and the continuous improvement of the permeability of superimposed double glass modules will greatly stimulate the demand for photovoltaic glass, and then drive the rapid growth of soda ash demand. According to Baichuan, the current photovoltaic glass inventory has dropped from the high point at the beginning of the year to about 63000 tons, and the average price of 3.2mm has further rebounded to 28 yuan / m2. In the past 22 years, the daily melting capacity of China's newly ignited photovoltaic glass was about 7200 tons / day, and the cold repair capacity was about 650 tons / day. The total newly added daily melting capacity was about 6550 tons / day, corresponding to the annual increment of photovoltaic glass of about 2.36 million tons. Based on the unit consumption of 0.2 tons of soda ash for photovoltaic glass, the demand for soda ash increased by about 470000 tons during the year. China will increase the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass by about 20400 tons / day and 12400 tons / day in 23 and 24 years respectively, corresponding to the demand for soda ash by about 147000 tons and 89000 tons respectively. The demand for soda ash by photovoltaic glass in the future is expected to continue to grow. In the main downstream demand structure of soda ash in China, the demand for photovoltaic glass (mainly used for photovoltaic modules) accounts for about 8%, and the other downstream includes: flat glass (mainly used for real estate construction and automobile) accounts for 47%, daily glass (mainly used for packaging materials) accounts for 17%, and the downstream of real estate is expected to meet the demand for repair within the year. In terms of supply, after the withdrawal of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) 1.2 million tons of ammonia alkali capacity, no new capacity will be put into operation in 2022. At present, the operating rate of the industry has been maintained at more than 80%, and the supply will remain relatively rigid during the year. The current industrial inventory has dropped from 1.6 million tons at the beginning of the year to about 1.1 million tons. We believe that the tight balance of soda ash supply is expected to be maintained and the price may continue to rise.
It is suggested to pay attention to: Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) ( Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) . SZ), Shuanghuan Technology ( Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) . SZ), Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) ( Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) . SH), Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) ( Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) . SZ) and Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) ( Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) . SH).
Risk warning: the implementation of relevant policies is less than expected, and the iteration of relevant technologies is less than expected.
