The central bank’s RRR reduction showed its determination to “stabilize growth” to the market, and real estate expectations continued to improve
On Monday (April 11), the central bank announced the financial data for March 2022: social finance increased by 4.65 trillion in March, an increase of 1.28 trillion year-on-year, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion, and the stock of social finance scale increased by 10.6% year-on-year at the end of March. In terms of breakdown structure, social finance increased year-on-year in March, with credit and government bonds as the main driving force, and the issuance of government special bonds was significantly ahead of schedule, indicating that the “moderately ahead of schedule investment” called by the government has been implemented, mainly in the fields of infrastructure and manufacturing. New RMB loans increased by 3951 trillion year-on-year. Although the total amount increased, the enterprise sector contributed the main increment, and the resident sector still decreased by 3940 trillion year-on-year. Although the new loans of the residential sector, including short-term loans and medium and long-term loans, have turned positive, they still increase less year-on-year, which directly shows that the residents’ daily consumption and house purchase demand are still weak. Although the real estate policy has been gradually relaxed in many places recently, the strength is slightly insufficient. At the same time, the recent epidemic situation in some areas is serious, which restricts the recovery of demand to a certain extent, and it will take time for the real estate to change from “policy bottom” to “fundamental bottom”. On Friday (April 15), the central bank announced that it would reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 25bp on April 25. At the same time, it allowed urban commercial banks without inter provincial operation and rural commercial banks with deposit reserve ratio higher than 5% to reduce the reserve requirement by 25bp. The “comprehensive reserve requirement reduction + targeted reserve requirement reduction” has increased the financial support to the real economy and demonstrated the government’s determination to “stabilize growth”. More counter cyclical and cross cyclical regulatory policies are expected to be introduced in succession to help credit expansion, Real estate regulation may be further relaxed. Consumer building materials with greater flexibility under the expected improvement of real estate benefit from: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , China Liansu. The direction of the infrastructure industry chain is clear, the demand is uncertain, and the beneficiary objects are: Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) . In the context of “double carbon”, the low-carbon transformation of energy is the main line of certainty, and carbon fiber, photovoltaic glass and glass fiber will continue to benefit from the growth of demand. Beneficiary: carbon fiber Faucet: Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Zhongfu Shenying; Photovoltaic glass Faucet: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ; Glass fiber Faucet: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) .
Market review this week
This week (April 11-april 15, 2022), the building materials index fell by 5.11%, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.99%, and the building materials index lost 4.12 percentage points to the CSI 300 index. In the past three months, the CSI 300 index fell by 12.14%, the building materials index fell by 8.42%, and the building materials sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.72 percentage points. Over the past year, the CSI 300 index fell 17.66%, the building materials index fell 15.16%, and the building materials sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.5 percentage points.
Plate data tracking
Cement: as of April 15, the national p.o42 5. The average price of bulk cement was 468.67 yuan / ton, up slightly by 0.06% month on month; The national clinker storage capacity ratio was 64.01%, with a month on month increase of 1.76%; The price difference between cement and coal was 321.12 yuan / ton, up 5.88% month on month.
Glass: as of April 15, the average spot price of float glass nationwide was 204865 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.95 yuan / ton, or 0.44%; The average price of photovoltaic glass was 171.77 yuan / weight box, up 2.11% month on month; Float glass inventory was 59.58 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.45 million weight boxes, or 4.29%; The price difference of float glass soda ash petroleum coke was 15.88 yuan / weight box, down 18.13% month on month; The price difference of float glass soda ash heavy oil is 29.25 yuan / weight box, which is basically the same month on month; The price difference of float glass soda ash natural gas was 39.41 yuan / weight box, down 1.85% month on month; The price difference of photovoltaic glass soda ash natural gas was 108.51 yuan / weight box, up 3.22% month on month.
Glass fiber: as of April 15, the mainstream ex factory price of alkali free 2400 winding direct yarn was Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited(600064) 50 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The mainstream price of 2400tex jet ply yarn was 950010000 yuan / ton, down slightly month on month; The mainstream price of 2400tex SMC composite yarn was 84008800 yuan / ton, down month on month. Electronic yarn prices are now mainstream transactions ranging from 85009000 yuan / ton, down 12.5% month on month.
Carbon fiber: as of April 15, the average price of small tow carbon fiber in China was 225 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The average price of large tow carbon fiber in China was 145 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The national carbon fiber inventory was 11 tons, a month on month decrease of 8.33%; The operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises was 65.01%, with a month on month decrease of 0.75%; The gross profit of carbon fiber was 5746667 yuan / ton, an increase of 400 yuan / ton, or 0.7%.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; Supply and demand mismatch risk; Downside risks of economic growth; China’s monetary and real estate policies are becoming stricter; China’s credit is lower than expected
