Industrial metals: internationally, according to the U.S. Department of labor, the PPI of the United States in March hit a new high since 2010, and high inflation continued. The Federal Reserve will further implement the interest rate hike plan, putting pressure on industrial metals. China actively deploys policies and measures to promote consumption, timely uses monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction to reduce comprehensive financing costs and promote the recovery and development of consumption, and emphasizes encouraging and supporting the consumption of bulk commodities related to industrial metal industries such as automobiles and household appliances, which may increase the demand for industrial metals, stimulate industrial metal consumption, promote the resumption and development of enterprises, and break the pattern of weak supply and demand. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) , etc.
Copper: the interest rate hike is still expected, and the price fluctuates at a high level
This week, the global copper price continued to fluctuate at a high level. LME copper closed at US $10332 / ton, down about 0.12% during the week; Shanghai copper closed at 74180 yuan / ton, up about 0.57% during the week. LME copper inventory recorded 110700 tons, an increase of about 6.65% during the week. Low inventory is still the focus of copper price support. The copper market has basically maintained a weak supply and demand. Affected by the epidemic and the maintenance of smelters, the supply of refined copper is tight. On the demand side, due to the high copper price and poor procurement of raw materials, most downstream enterprises set production by sales and the overall consumption is weak. However, with the implementation of China’s decision-making and deployment to promote consumption and the implementation of the RRR reduction policy, the confidence in the peak consumption season after the epidemic is still strong, and the copper price may run stronger.
Aluminum: with the support of macro-control policies, China’s consumer confidence is still growing
Global aluminum prices fell this week and remained high and volatile on the whole. LME aluminum closed at US $3299 / ton, down about 2.16% during the week; Shanghai aluminum closed at 21440 yuan / ton, down 1.76% during the week. Basically, with the increase of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the first quarter, the output of electrolytic aluminum in April is expected to be optimistic, but the epidemic interferes with transportation, the transportation cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increases greatly, and the spot circulation is limited. On the demand side, the construction of underground tourism in Shandong, Wuxi and other places resumed during the week. In addition, with the force of the national steady growth policy, the market consumption confidence is still, and the trading in the spot market can be expected to turn better in the future.
Tin: the epidemic restrained consumption, and tin prices fell slightly
LME tin closed at US $43400 / ton, down about 0.30% during the week; SHFE tin closed at 333560 yuan / ton, down about 2.12% during the week. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots in SMM China’s mainstream areas this week was 3710 tons, up 523 tons or 16.41% from last week. The accumulation of inventory mainly occurred in Guangdong. On the supply side, according to SMM research, at present, the production of mainstream smelters in China is normal, and the operating rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces remains stable, with a slight increase compared with last week. On the demand side, the downstream solder enterprises maintained a stable production state as a whole, but the low logistics efficiency caused by the epidemic and the rise of freight have become the main factors affecting production. The overall high tin price has also restrained the downstream demand and pushed the tin price down slightly. However, in the long run, there are few new projects in tin mines and strong terminal consumption such as photovoltaic. The overall shortage of tin market will continue. It is expected that tin prices will continue to maintain a high level.
Zinc: the European energy crisis is difficult to alleviate, and the price of zinc continues to rise
LME zinc closed at US $4429.5/ton, up about 3.06% in the week; SHFE zinc closed at 28295 yuan / ton, up about 4.31% during the week. This week, the problem of energy shortage in Europe is still severe and difficult to alleviate in the short term. The increase in refined zinc cost caused by the rise of electricity price forced some smelters to reduce production and stop production, and the overseas zinc supply remained tight. LME zinc inventory closed at 115600 tons this week, down 8.02% from 10075 tons last week. Continuous rapid stock removal deepened market concerns and promoted the continuous rise of Lun zinc price. In China, on the supply side, affected by the epidemic, the transportation of raw materials is blocked, the production willingness of smelters is insufficient, and there are many shutdown and maintenance. And this week, the Shanghai Lun ratio hit a record low of 6.17, which led to the refusal of Chinese refineries to mine imported ore, exacerbating the shortage situation at the mine end. The demand side is still in a weak state due to the poor transportation caused by the epidemic and the weak performance of downstream industries such as real estate and automobile. However, the weak price comparison and insufficient overseas supply have brought export opportunities. At present, the price transmission channels are smooth, the new internal and external price ratio is expected to be repaired, and the zinc price is expected to continue to rise.
Energy metals: affected by the epidemic, the demand for energy metals is expected to be weak this week, with prices showing a slight downward trend. However, the terminal new energy vehicle industry continues to be in the stage of rapid development, and the production and sales of vehicle enterprises continue to improve. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in mid March 2022, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 465000 and 484000 respectively, an increase of 1.1 times year-on-year.
Overall, the year-on-year data still maintained a strong growth trend, and the month on month data also showed a seasonal recovery. This continuous positive trend also helps to drive the recovery of demand for energy metals. It is expected that in the future, with the improvement of the epidemic and the gradual return of the market to stability, the price of energy metals will continue to remain high. It is suggested to be followed by the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Lithium: lithium prices fell slightly this week, and profits accelerated to the mine end
The price of battery grade lithium carbonate closed at 494000 yuan / ton this week, down 7500 yuan / ton from last week, down 1.5% month on month; The price of lithium hydroxide was still 491000 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton from last week, down 0.1% month on month. This week, the price of spodumene closed at 3225 yuan / ton, up 4.9% from last week, and the profit of lithium industry chain accelerated to the mine end. On the demand side, the demand for the four cathode materials fell this month due to the reduction of orders. The head battery factory is controlled by the epidemic, and there is a great downside risk in the production plan. The orders of high nickel manufacturers in April have been affected, the orders of some manufacturers in may have been clearly reduced, and the demand for lithium hydroxide has also decreased. Supply increases and demand decreases, driven by market sentiment, and future prices may decline slightly in the short term. However, with the resumption of work and production in the downstream, the fundamentals will strengthen, and the lithium price may remain high.
Cobalt: the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the cobalt price fell slightly
This week, the price of SMM electrolytic cobalt was 549573000 yuan / ton, slightly lower than that of last week. The price of SMM cobalt intermediate products is US $33.8-34.2/lb, with an average price increase of 3000 yuan / ton compared with last week. Affected by the closure of Durban port in South Africa, the raw material side remained strong. Affected by the epidemic in many places on the demand side, the downstream procurement demand was weak. There were sporadic market inquiries, and the profits of cobalt smelters accelerated to decline. It is expected that cobalt prices may remain high under the support of costs when demand picks up.
Nickel: both supply and demand are weak, and the nickel price fluctuates at a high level
This week, LME nickel closed at US $33145 / ton and SHFE nickel closed at RMB 223880 / ton. LME nickel fell by 2.49% year-on-year and SHFE nickel increased by 2.62% year-on-year.
In terms of inventory, LME inventory this week was about 72600 tons, a decrease of about 1.5% over last week. On the whole, the market is still in the recovery stage after the short market, showing a weak situation of both supply and demand. The nickel price remained high under low inventory, pending the acceleration of large-scale nickel intermediate products in the second half of the year to break the deadlock.
Precious metals: the US CPI and PPI in March exceeded expectations, and high inflation supported the rise of gold prices
COMEX gold closed at $1977.1 an ounce this week, up 1.37% from last week.
COMEX silver futures closed at $25.86 an ounce, up 3.81% from last week. According to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, the annual growth rate of CPI in the United States rose to 8.5% in March, a 40 year high, higher than the expected 8.4%; In March, PPI increased by 11.2% year-on-year, higher than the expected 10.6%, and increased by 1.4% month on month, higher than the expected 1.1%. Inflation data was stronger than expected, supporting the continued rise of precious metal prices. As of April 9, the number of initial jobless claims in the week was 186000, higher than the expected 171000, but still at a low level, supporting the Fed’s tightening expectations. However, in the short term, due to the deadlock in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the high inflation level, the gold price is expected to remain high and volatile.
Rare earth: the price of rare earth is corrected in the short term and basically good in the long term
This week, rare earth prices remained stable after the reduction. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide continued to be reduced to 810 Shenwu Energy Saving Co.Ltd(000820) 000 yuan / ton, down 90000 yuan / ton compared with last week; The mainstream transaction price of praseodymium and neodymium metal market was reduced to 9901020000 yuan / ton, down 100000 yuan / ton compared with last week. Affected by the epidemic, the logistics and transportation are blocked and Myanmar mines are imported, the production of upstream enterprises is affected to a certain extent, and the supply of medium and heavy rare earths is still tight. On the demand side, the current market price is unstable, the enthusiasm for inquiry and purchase is not high, the magnetic material enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood, the demand side is weak, and a small amount of goods just need to be taken. On the whole, the supply side is tight, the demand is gradually improving, and the market turnover is gradually rising. After the market is stable, the price will be supported. The rapid and stable development of downstream wind power, new energy vehicles and other industries is good news for the rare earth market. On the whole, the fundamentals of rare earths are still good for a long time. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) etc.
Risk tips:
Metal prices fluctuated sharply, the demand for new energy fell sharply, and the macroeconomic performance was lower than expected
