Key investment points
[Shanghai: vigorously, orderly and effectively promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises] on the evening of April 16, Shanghai Municipal Commission of economy and information technology issued guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises resumption of work and production, effectively, orderly and effectively promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises, guide enterprises to “one enterprise, one policy” and ensure the safety and stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain. The first batch of enterprises to resume production include enterprises in key industries such as automobile manufacturing. Among them, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) stated that China’s largest auto enterprise is making careful preparations for production under the conditions of epidemic prevention.
[important information and announcement of lithium battery] on April 15, Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) its enterprise announced that its newly developed new spherical lithium iron phosphate product “iron lithium 1” will greatly improve the performance of lithium iron phosphate battery cathode material in low temperature environment (- the retention rate of discharge capacity at 20 degrees will be increased from 55% to 85%), At the same time, the charging rate is significantly improved (the fast charging time for a range of 500 km is shortened from 40 minutes to 15 minutes). On April 14, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) subordinate company puqin times signed a tripartite agreement with Pt anekatambang (antam) and Pt industri baterai Indonesia (IBI) to jointly build a power battery industry chain project including nickel mining and smelting, battery materials, battery manufacturing and battery recycling, with a total investment of nearly US $6 billion.
[important information and announcement on photovoltaic and wind power] on April 13, the people’s Government of Guangdong Province issued the “14th five year plan” for energy development in Guangdong Province, which proposed that the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased by about 20GW during the 14th Five Year Plan period; The newly added installed capacity of offshore wind power is about 17gw; The installed capacity of new onshore wind power is about 3gw. On April 14, Hunan development and Reform Commission issued the notice on matters related to the development and construction of wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects in the province during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is planned that the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the province will reach more than 25gw by 2025. According to the cumulative installed capacity of 12.5gw of scenery in Hunan Province in 2021 announced by the national energy administration, the new scale of scenery in Hunan Province will be 12.5gw in the next four years.
[the epidemic raged, many car companies stopped production, the demand was light, and the price of cobalt and lithium fell] [cobalt] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 15, the mainstream price of electrolytic cobalt in China was 549573000 yuan / ton, and the average price decreased by 0500 yuan / ton compared with last week. Cobalt sulfate was reported at 115500117500 yuan / ton, with the average price falling by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last week. Co3O4 was reported at 4325438500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 5500 yuan / ton lower than last week. On the demand side, affected by the widespread spread of the epidemic in April, a number of automobile enterprises have stopped production one after another, and the demand for precursors has been further affected. At present, the cobalt salt inventory of precursor plants is generally sufficient, the procurement demand is very weak, and the arrival of intermediate products in Hong Kong this month continues to ease. At present, the inventory of finished products in smelters is overstocked, and the cobalt salt price is expected to decline further in the next two weeks. [lithium] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 15, the quotation of metal lithium was 3.114-3.275 million yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The mainstream price of battery grade lithium carbonate was reported at 488000500000 yuan / ton, with the average price falling by 7500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particle) is 487000495000 yuan / ton, with the average price falling by 0500 yuan / ton compared with last week. In terms of lithium carbonate, the impact of the epidemic on the demand side is still deepening, the market panic and selling sentiment is still on, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to show a downward trend in the future. In terms of lithium hydroxide, affected by the decline of lithium carbonate and weak demand, the upstream and downstream game continues, but there are also downside risks. In the future, the expected price may start a downward trend with lithium carbonate. [ternary materials] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 15, the price of ternary materials (type 523) was 366500373400 yuan / ton, and the average price decreased by 10000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The quotation of ternary precursor (type 523) is 154 Wasu Media Holding Co.Ltd(000156) 500 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The price of Yuan materials fell slightly on Wednesday. The cost side lithium salt fell, the precursor remained stable, and the manufacturing cost fell. At this stage, many car enterprises and head batteries have been affected by the epidemic, and the follow-up orders of some enterprises have been significantly reduced. In the future, lithium salt is expected to maintain a downward trend, and the price of ternary materials may decline slightly due to the cost side and weak future demand. [lithium iron phosphate cathode] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 15, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 1 Qingdao Victall Railway Co.Ltd(605001) 65000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The price of lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 1485152500 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as last week. The price of lithium iron phosphate remains unchanged this week. On the raw material side, the recent trend of iron phosphate stabilized and lithium salt decreased. At present, the lithium salt raw materials used by iron lithium enterprises are mostly from large lithium salt factories, with less price reduction, which supports the current iron lithium price. On the supply side, most enterprises implemented their orders, and their construction started to decline compared with the previous month. On the demand side, the epidemic situation repeated to the downstream, and the demand reduction of some terminal enterprises was serious and the trend was weak. Prices are expected to stabilize in the future. It’s highly recommended to focus on: ‘s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 35.
[upstream prices continue to rise and component prices are under pressure] according to pvinfolink data, on April 13, the mainstream quotation of [silicon material] polycrystalline silicon compact was 247000 yuan / ton, with the average price rising by 0.8% compared with last week. Although the new capacity of silicon material link has been put into operation successively, considering the maintenance plan of each silicon material enterprise, the growth rate of the actual output of silicon material is still limited as of April, the climbing progress of each new capacity is uneven, and the supply-demand relationship between silicon material supply and crystal drawing material demand is still difficult to improve in the short term. In addition, affected by the epidemic situation and control in China, the situation of logistics traffic efficiency and transportation capacity of long-distance transportation is still very serious, resulting in tight material supply in production links. [silicon chip] the mainstream price of 182mm single crystal silicon chip is 6.830 yuan / PC, with the average price rising by 1.9% compared with last week. The mainstream quotation of 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 9.000 yuan / PC, with the average price rising by 0.6% compared with last week. The price of monocrystalline silicon wafer has risen as a whole, and the downstream acceptance still needs time to observe and ferment. [cell] the mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal perc cell is 1.155 yuan / W, with the average price rising by 0.9% compared with last week. The mainstream quotation of 210mm single crystal perc battery is 1.160 yuan / W, with the average price rising by 0.9% compared with last week. The overall price of battery chips is affected by the price of silicon chips. [components] the mainstream quotation of 365375 / 440450w single crystal single glass perc components is 1.870 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal single glass perc module is 1.890 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as that of last week. China’s epidemic continues to spread, the short-term logistics impact is severe, and the terminal delivery is still blocked due to poor logistics, coupled with the shortage of inverters. The component manufacturers are worried about the subsequent material interruption. The component manufacturers are still actively purchasing raw materials. Now some manufacturers of glass and junction box are in shortage, and the cost of auxiliary materials is also rising. The above factors make the price of auxiliary materials rise. There is still a plan to increase the price of adhesive film in late April. [photovoltaic glass] the mainstream price of 3.2mm coating is reported as 27.5 yuan / m2, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The mainstream quotation of 2.0mm coating is 21.2 yuan / m2, and the average price is the same as last week. Key recommendations focus on the following: ‘ Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) \ , Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) .
Risk tip: the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices affects the industry demand, and other unexpected explosion risks.
