Core conclusion
The export arbitrage window of chlor alkali is opening. On April 13, the price of PVC in the European spot market rose 150 to 2000 euros. At the same time, the price of PVC from FOB to Europe is about 2000 dollars, and China is now 1414 dollars. Due to the rising energy costs, the price difference outside China has been widening. The difference between the FOB price exported to Europe and the Chinese market has reached US $648, compared with us $60 in the same period in 2019. On the one hand, it is the arbitrage space brought by the energy price difference, on the other hand, it is the downward trend of transportation costs. According to wind, the latest European line CCFI index is 5067, a decrease of about 13.4% compared with 5854 in February, the highest point of this year. We judge that the Q2 shipping index is expected to continue to decline under the background of weak supply and demand in China, and the export arbitrage window of high-energy consuming chemicals represented by chlor alkali is opening. It is suggested to pay attention to: Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) , Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Xinjiang Tianye Co.Ltd(600075) .
From the medium-term perspective, the four lines we recommend remain unchanged, including transaction stagflation (agrochemical) + stabilizing the economy + electricity price arbitrage + capacity transfer.
1) agrochemical lines. Epidemic prevention and control will not reduce, but will boost the demand for food (just demand + hoarding) and stimulate upward inflation. Considering Ukraine's recent claim that the area of spring ploughing has decreased by 50% and that spring ploughing in Northeast China has been affected by the epidemic prevention and control to a certain extent, we remain worried about the global food supply, and continue to recommend the strong cycle of chemical fertilizer. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) .
2) stabilize the economy and unswervingly adhere to the policy of eliminating the epidemic situation. The pressure on China's economic growth has increased, because the demand for epidemic prevention and control may be replaced by subsequent stronger policy stimulus. The real estate chain deserves attention, and the chemical industry suggests attention: soda ash ( Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) hubei Shuanghuan), chlor alkali ( Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), titanium dioxide ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ) .
3) electricity price arbitrage: oil and gas prices have risen sharply, and overseas electricity prices have continued to rise to 2-3 yuan / kWh. In contrast, the electricity price of enterprises in eastern China is 6-8 gross / kWh, while the self generating cost of low-cost coal in Western China is only 1-2 gross / kWh. We pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of electricity price difference of high power consumption products per unit output value. From low consumption of industrial ammonia and calcium carbide to high output value of industrial ammonia and calcium carbide. It is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises with self owned coal, self owned power plants and high power consumption chemicals in the west, Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Xinjiang Tianye Co.Ltd(600075) , etc.
4) capacity transfer: Based on our confidence in China's epidemic prevention and control, we believe that China's industrial chain will recover as soon as possible. Under this short-term assumption, we expect the European energy crisis to bring opportunities for China's capacity transfer. If the production of European chemical plants is reduced or stopped due to energy and raw materials, China is expected to realize capacity transfer by virtue of the advantages of the industrial chain. If China's industrial chain, as an exporter of global price deflation, cannot be restored as soon as possible, the risk of global stagflation will be further exacerbated.
Risk warning: safety accidents affect the commencement; Rapid iteration of technical route; Changes in environmental protection policies.
