Matters:
Each aviation company disclosed the operation data in March 2022. Due to the fermentation and spillover of the epidemic in Shanghai and the superposition of safety accidents, the passenger flow of civil aviation fell sharply again.
The transportation and investment, traffic volume and passenger seat rate of all airlines decreased significantly month on month and year on year. Among them, the passenger flow of the three airlines decreased by an average of nearly 70% year on year, the passenger seat rate remained at the level of slightly more than 60%, the passenger flow decreased by 60% in spring and autumn, and the passenger seat rate was about 70%. By April, the epidemic situation in Shanghai was still running at a high level, many cities across the country had improved their epidemic prevention level, and the passenger flow of civil aviation continued to be depressed. It is expected that the epidemic situation in Shanghai will subside as soon as possible and promote the gradual recovery of demand.
At the policy level, the “dynamic clearing” is unswerving, and the occasional epidemic may still have an impact on the operation of civil aviation. However, in the long term, after the low growth of transport capacity for two consecutive years, the 2021 annual report of the three major airlines is still relatively conservative in the planning for the introduction of transport capacity in the next few years. For example, excluding the b737max order, the total increase of passenger fleet of the three major airlines is only 3.4%. If the operating pressure continues during the year, The actual fleet expansion rate is probably lower. The continuous low growth of supply will create preconditions for the reversal of supply and demand. If the policy changes one day, the demand for civil aviation is expected to recover rapidly.
We continue to be optimistic about the reversal of civil aviation supply and demand after the impact of the epidemic subsides. Stimulated by the resonance of continuous introduction of low transport capacity, fare reform and historical high seating rate, civil aviation performance is expected to reach a record high. We continue to recommend sector industry investment opportunities and recommend Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Comments:
Each airline company disclosed the operation data in March 2022
Each aviation company disclosed the operation data in March 2022. Due to the fermentation and spillover of the epidemic in Shanghai and the superposition of safety accidents, the passenger flow of civil aviation fell sharply again. The transportation and investment, traffic volume and passenger seat rate of all airlines decreased significantly month on month and year on year. Among them, the passenger flow of the three airlines decreased by an average of nearly 70% year on year, the passenger seat rate remained at the level of slightly more than 60%, the passenger flow decreased by 60% in spring and autumn, and the passenger seat rate was about 70%. By April, the epidemic situation in Shanghai was still running at a high level, many cities across the country had improved their epidemic prevention level, and the passenger flow of civil aviation continued to be depressed. It is expected that the epidemic situation in Shanghai will subside as soon as possible and promote the gradual recovery of demand.
In terms of China line, the investment of the three major shipping lines decreased by nearly 60% year-on-year. Compared with 2019, the decline was close to or more than 50%, and the traffic volume decreased by about 70%. Among them, China Southern Airlines performed slightly better, RPK decreased by 63.4% year-on-year, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines decreased by 70.7% and 70.1% respectively. Among private airlines, Chunqiu and Jixiang ask decreased by 48.0% and 48.9% respectively, and RPK decreased by 59.6% and 59.9% respectively. The seating rate of the three major airlines slightly exceeded 60%, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, a decrease of about 20% compared with that before the epidemic. The seating rates of spring and autumn and auspicious airlines were 60.9% and 60.6% respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5% and 17.6% respectively, and a decrease of 25.4% and 22.7% respectively compared with the same period in 2019.
As the “five ones” policy has not been significantly loosened, the national door has not been fully opened yet, the international line operation and traffic volume of each shipping company is still at a low ebb, and the international line operation and traffic volume of each shipping company has not improved significantly compared with 2019.
The introduction of conservative transport capacity creates preconditions for the reversal of supply and demand. For example, the demand is expected to recover rapidly due to policy changes
At the policy level, the “dynamic clearing” is unswerving, and the occasional epidemic may still have an impact on the operation of civil aviation. However, in the long term, after the low growth of transport capacity for two consecutive years, the 2021 annual report of the three major airlines is still relatively conservative in the planning for the introduction of transport capacity in the next few years. For example, excluding the b737max order, the total increase of passenger fleet of the three major airlines is only 3.4%. If the operating pressure continues during the year, The actual fleet expansion rate is probably lower. The continuous low growth of supply will create preconditions for the reversal of supply and demand. Although we cannot expect the time point of full opening-up for the time being, if the policy changes one day, the demand for civil aviation is expected to recover rapidly
Investment suggestions:
We continue to be optimistic about the reversal of civil aviation supply and demand after the impact of the epidemic subsides. Stimulated by the resonance of continuous introduction of low transport capacity, fare reform and historical high seating rate, civil aviation performance is expected to reach a record high. We continue to recommend sector industry investment opportunities and recommend Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Risk tips:
Macroeconomic downturn, repeated epidemics, sharp fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates, and safety accidents
