The supply of photovoltaic glass is continuously released, and we continue to pay attention to the rhythm of capacity release
Last week, the price of 2mm photovoltaic coated glass was 21.15 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month; The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass was 27.5 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month. Manufacturers’ inventory days were 18.58 days, down 4.06% from last week. Silicon materials continued to rise, the price remained high, the operation of component manufacturers was basically stable, terminal power stations successively accepted new prices, and the trading volume increased.
In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls in the future and driven by policies, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve in 22 / 23 years. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 50210 tons, an increase of 5.02% month on month. The production capacity in 22 years still needs to be continuously observed. In 2030, the new installed capacity of EU photovoltaic is 420gw. We believe that the foreign demand under the Russian Ukrainian war is still expected to exceed expectations. With the release of silicon production capacity in the second half of the year, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise periodically, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price of leading companies in the future.
Float glass inventory is high and unit profit is at the bottom of short-term
The average price of float glass in China this week rose slightly by 0.04% month on week. On the whole, the new orders are still insufficient, and the processing plants just need to replenish. The manufacturer’s inventory was 59.58 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.45 million weight boxes over last week. The production capacity in the week was 172025t / D, unchanged month on month. Cost side: during the week, the price of heavy alkali rose slightly again, the fuel price changed little, and the overall cost increased slightly. In the short term, it is expected that the comprehensive profit margin of the industry will hover at the bottom. We believe that with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the fall of reserve requirements, it is conducive to the restoration of real estate confidence, the demand side of float glass is still expected to pick up, and the demand for q2-q3 is expected to reach a small peak.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
1) photovoltaic glass: the demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the production capacity side has high growth. It is recommended to recommend leading companies with PE less than 20 times in 23 years [Xinyi solar energy], [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (both covered jointly with Dianxin);
2) float glass: the share price of float glass leader has been greatly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of its float business under the equilibrium state and the additional growth brought by the new business, we believe that the current float glass leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ], [Xinyi Glass] (both have a certain capacity of building energy-saving glass);
3) new glass materials: UTG original film breaks through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. Continue to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (jointly covered with the electronic group). Under the domestic substitution logic of medicinal glass, recommend the head enterprise of CBSI medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (jointly covered with the Pharmaceutical Group).
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed the downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and other products beyond expectations; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
