In March 2022, the demand of China’s three major airlines decreased month on month. In March 2022, the ask of Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines decreased by 63.3%, 62.4% and 56.0% respectively compared with the same period of the previous year, 44.6%, 50.9% and 41.4% respectively compared with the previous month, and 75.3%, 71.4% and 63.0% respectively compared with the same period of 2019; The passenger volume decreased by 70.2%, 70.9% and 63.6% year-on-year, 48.7%, 55.2% and 44.5% month on month, 76.1%, 76.4% and 66.5% respectively compared with the same period in 2019; The occupancy rate was 59.1%, 59.4% and 64.1% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.4, 13.5 and 10.8 PCT respectively, and a month-on-month decrease of 5.3, 4.7 and 4.1 PCT respectively. In terms of structure, the demand of Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines for Chinese routes fell month on month. In March 2022, the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased by 48.7%, 55.4% and 44.9% respectively compared with the previous month; Based on the same period in 2019, 2022
in Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 3 months, the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased month on month In March Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 22, ask decreased by 48.9% year-on-year, of which ask of Chinese routes decreased by 48.9% year-on-year and 43.5% month on month; The passenger volume decreased by 60.6% year-on-year, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased by 60.6% year-on-year and 48.0% month on month. Based on the same period in 2019, ask decreased by 46.0% in March Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 22, including 36.0% for Chinese routes; In March 22, the passenger volume decreased by 57.6%, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased by 51.5%.
in Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) 3 months, the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased month on month Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) 22 March ask decreased by 48.1% year-on-year, of which ask of Chinese routes decreased by 48.0% year-on-year and 48.8% month on month; The passenger volume decreased by 60.9% year-on-year, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased by 60.9% year-on-year and 55.5% month on month. Based on the same period in 2019, ask decreased by 41.9% in March Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) 22, of which ask of Chinese routes decreased by 9.5%; In March 22, the passenger volume decreased by 55.0%, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased by 37.2%.
The passenger throughput of Chinese routes at first tier airports decreased month on month. In March 2022, the passenger throughput of capital airport, Pudong Airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Bao’an airport decreased by 88.6%, 87.3%, 64.5% and 88.4% respectively compared with the same period of 19 years. Among them, the passenger throughput of Chinese routes decreased by 84.8%, 77.1%, 53.0% and 87.2% respectively compared with the same period of 19 years, and decreased by 39.2%, 70.4%, 33.1% and 73.2% respectively compared with the previous month.
Since March, there have been repeated outbreaks in many places in China, and China’s aviation demand has been significantly negatively impacted. According to the statistics of the National Health Commission, as of 24:00 on April 15, there were 25956 confirmed cases, 12 suspected cases and 274676 asymptomatic infections (771 imported from abroad) in 31 provinces and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps. Statistics of flying standard data: affected by the epidemic situation in various parts of China, especially in cities where important hub airports such as Shanghai and Shenzhen are located, the number of flights continued to decline rapidly. In March 2022, the number of passenger flights operated by Air China division was 161405, down 44.99% month on month and 58.6% year-on-year in 2021.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, and the demand for air passenger transport has been negatively impacted. We believe that the growth logic and location advantages of first-line airport companies and airlines have not changed substantially due to the epidemic situation; With the continuous advancement of covid-19 vaccine / treatment technology, the demand for air passenger transport will gradually recover. The revaluation of relevant companies is a deterministic event, and the short-term fluctuation of share price does not change the upward trend of airport sector. We maintain the industry’s “add on” rating, and recommend 601 Air China Limited(601111) 35.
Risk analysis: the duration of covid-19 epidemic exceeded market expectations; The sharp decline of macro economy leads to the decline of industry demand; Sino US trade frictions continue to ferment, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly; Crude oil prices rose sharply.
