Summary of this issue:
Zhou viewpoint: 1) home furnishing: Recently, under the background of continuous improvement of multi local real estate policies, the valuation of home furnishing sector has been repaired. At the current time point, we believe that as the situation of epidemic prevention and control is still severe and complex, the driving of policy improvement on the demand of the industry may be delayed. We should pay attention to the progress of the follow-up epidemic and the orders of enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (22 years pe25x), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (22 years PE 19x), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (22 years PE 14x), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (22 years PE 16x), Minhua holding (22 years pe10x). 2) Papermaking: Although the recent epidemic in China has disturbed the demand of the industry, the international wood pulp has remained high due to strikes, supply chain mismatch and other problems, and the cost side has formed a strong support for the paper price. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (22 years PE 10x) and Shanying paper (22 years pe6x). 3) Packaging and printing & new tobacco: the new tobacco ushered in the national standard of e-cigarette last week, the transition period was postponed to September 30, and a number of policies such as the five detailed rules were intensively released, with detailed supervision and further raising the industry threshold. It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) (22 years pe14x) with rapid promotion of large packaging layout and bottom valuation. 4) .
The light industry manufacturing sector performed slightly worse than the market last week (April 11-april 15, 2022). Last week, the light industry manufacturing industry index fell 2.6%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.0%. The overall performance was inferior to the market. In the light industry manufacturing segment, the packaging and printing industry index was – 5.1%, the entertainment industry index was – 1.0%, the household goods industry index was – 1.0%, and the paper industry index was – 3.3%.
Household: the price of raw materials fell last week and the sea freight picked up. In the past week as of April 16, 2022, in terms of chemical raw materials, the market prices of TDI, MDI and polyether were – 4.0%, – 1.0% and – 3.2% respectively compared with last week. In terms of hardware raw materials, copper prices were + 0.4% month on month (MOM) last week. The high level of sea freight dropped. Last week, CCFI: the sea freight ring of the US west route was + 2.9% compared with last week.
Papermaking: the futures prices of national waste and pulp rose slightly this week, while the prices of other kinds of paper remained stable. The past week as of April 16, 2022: the price of double adhesive tape, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 7000 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6700 yuan / ton (unchanged); Price of white cardboard, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6710 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) 6820 yuan / ton (unchanged); Coated paper price, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6800 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6500 yuan / ton (unchanged). Dongguan Jiulong Dilong Dongguan Jiulong corrugated paper 4440 yuan / ton (unchanged), kraft carton paper 4780 yuan / ton (unchanged). In terms of cost, as of April 16, 2022, the purchase price of Tianjin Jiulong waste yellow paperboard was 2240 yuan / ton (up 50 yuan / ton), the price of Brazilian goldfish broad-leaved pulp was 780 dollars / ton (unchanged), the price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp was 990 dollars / ton (unchanged), and the pulp futures price was 7044 yuan / ton, up + 2.00% from last week.
Packing: the price of tinsector and aluminum decreased slightly. As of April 16, 2022, last week, tinsector Tianjin Furen spcc0 The price of 18 900 tinsector coil is 8410 yuan / ton (down 140 yuan / ton), and the price of A00 aluminum is 21262 yuan / ton (down 835 yuan / ton).
Risk factors: the risk of decline in real estate sales and the risk of sharp rise in raw material costs.
