Focus this week: Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) , Kunshan Dongwei Technology Co.Ltd(688700) , Warom Technology Incorporated Company(603855)
Core view of this week: recent macro environment fluctuations have a great impact on the stock price of the equipment industry. We believe that the short-term impact has not been eliminated, and the overall judgment continues to fluctuate. At present, the price rise of upstream resource products and the steady growth of the government are still two relatively determined main lines, and the relevant equipment sectors such as coal machinery, oil service, nuclear power and hydrogen energy are expected to benefit.
Theme of this week: analysis of localization process of machine tool industry
China’s medium and low-end machine tools have been localized and are moving towards high-end. As an “industrial machine tool”, machine tools are closely related to the level of national manufacturing industry. After years of development, China’s machine tool industry has begun to take shape with the continuous improvement of the overall strength of China’s industry. At present, China has become a large manufacturing country in the machine tool industry, and its consumption and output value rank first in the world. According to statistics, in 2019, the output value of China’s machine tool industry was 19.42 billion US dollars, accounting for 23.1% of the global market; China’s consumption is US $22.3 billion, accounting for 27.2% of the global demand market. The localization rate of Chinese enterprises in medium and low-end machine tools reached 65% and 82% respectively. However, among high-end machine tools, China’s localization rate is less than 10%, which still depends on overseas imports, which is a new goal of domestic substitution.
The government’s industrial policy support has been continuously increased to promote the domestic substitution of machine tools. In recent years, the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other departments have successively issued policies to support and standardize the development of the machine tool industry, especially the development guidelines for advanced fields such as CNC machine tools. The contents of the policy mainly involve the guidelines for the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, the specifications of CNC machine tool equipment, the localization rate of CNC machine tools, the industrial cluster of CNC machine tools, etc., which is conducive to promoting the sustainable development of China’s machine tools and is of great significance to the improvement of the localization rate of machine tools. Since 2018, as the United States launched trade frictions against China and imposed a global trade embargo on high-end manufacturing equipment, especially high-end CNC machine tools, it is imperative to replace domestic high-end machine tools.
The self-made rate of core parts still needs to be improved, and some leading enterprises have made progress. At present, the top two main problems in China’s CNC machine tool industry are “poor accuracy and stability” and “frequent faults”, so it can be applied in the middle and low-end market, but it is insufficient in the high-end market. The self-made rate of core parts is low, or it is the core problem affecting the development of localization. Although the localization rate of core parts of CNC machine tools in China needs to be improved urgently, some enterprises still adhere to the R & D investment of core technology and make breakthroughs in some core parts of machine tools, such as high-end machine tool CNC system, servo driver, motor, motorized spindle, tool magazine and other parts. With the gradual promotion of core parts, Chinese machine tool manufacturers are expected to accelerate domestic substitution.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to China’s high-end CNC machine tool head enterprises, such as Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , etc.
Risk tips: the risk of intensified industry competition, the risk of raw material price fluctuation, macroeconomic risk, etc.
