The price of thermal coal is expected to fluctuate as a whole. As of April 15, according to the data of coal resources network, the market price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port closed at 1135 yuan / ton, down 135 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, but there were signs of a rebound on Friday. In terms of supply, at present, the supply of main producing areas is stable, but affected by the epidemic and transportation, the shipment of coal mines is general, and some coal mines have accumulated reserves. The recent rebound in port prices is mainly due to the cost and the emotional impact caused by the Daqin Line accident. At present, the downstream has entered the off-season, superimposed with the shutdown caused by the epidemic, and the overall demand is weak. On the whole, the price trend is expected to be dominated by shock. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the epidemic dynamics and the impact of relevant policies.
Coking coal prices are expected to run strongly. According to the coal resources network, due to the aggravation of the epidemic situation in some areas of Shanxi, there are still great obstacles to road transportation, some coal mines are difficult to ship, and the storage of coking coal in the plant has accumulated. Considering that the recent notice issued by the emergency management department of Shanxi Province requires that it is strictly prohibited to organize production in excess of capacity and intensity, and under the reserve task of coal mines in Shandong and Shaanxi, the supply of coking coal market is limited. Downstream, coke steel enterprises still have a rigid demand for raw coal. However, the recent epidemic in Shanxi has intensified, and transportation has been hindered again. Some coke steel enterprises whose arrival conditions are less than expected have production reduction expectations. On the whole, the coking coal price is expected to be stable, medium and strong in the short term.
Coke price is expected to be stable and strong. According to the coal resources network, the epidemic situation improved slightly in the first half of this week, and the transportation in Shanxi improved. However, in the second half of this week, with the increase of the number of confirmed cases, the control became stricter again. The transportation led to the difficulty of raw coal to the warehouse of coking enterprises, but the finished coke continued to accumulate in the warehouse, resulting in the forced reduction of production of coking enterprises. In the downstream, during the orderly resumption of production of the downstream steel plant, the inventory in the plant decreased rapidly, and some even appeared the phenomenon of furnace stewing. On the whole, due to the impact of the epidemic, it is slightly difficult to alleviate the logistics and transportation, the operating rate of coke enterprises in the region has decreased, and the coke output has decreased significantly. However, the downstream steel mills have strong demand for coke, mostly actively purchase, and the coke supply is tight. It is expected that the coke market may operate stably, moderately and strongly in the short term.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are expected to face value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) The coking coal sector is expected to benefit from the demand growth driven by real estate and infrastructure investment. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
Risk tips: 1) risk of economic slowdown. 2) Risk of a sharp fall in coal prices. 3) Policy change risk
