Life insurance stabilized in March: the increased lifetime life may turn the tide, and the new auto insurance policies move forward steadily
Sales of new life insurance orders may improve as scheduled: as stated in our march strategy report, we expect that new life insurance orders are expected to begin to improve in the near future. With the high value rate of new business (40% - 50%, higher than the average level of listed life insurance enterprises), the increased lifetime life may turn the tide, making Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) the sales of new life insurance orders in March positive year-on-year. Looking forward to the second quarter, with the intensification of the shock in the stock market, the attraction of insurance products with fixed income and guaranteed principal is expected to continue. We continue to be optimistic about the sales of new orders, and the positive growth rate is expected to continue.
Ping An's new business premium for personal business in the first quarter was - 16% year-on-year, mainly due to the high base in the first quarter of last year and the sharp increase in sales due to the switching of the definition of serious diseases. The year-on-year growth rate of new business premium in January and February of last year was 31% and 24% respectively. However, in the first quarter of this year, the new single premium increased by 0.45% year-on-year compared with the first quarter of 2020. Under the background of the continuous decline of manpower for three years, the new business premium of Ping An in the first quarter of 2022 decreased by 18%, 12% and 41% respectively from 19 to 21. The new business premium of Ping An in the first quarter of 2022 can exceed the same period of the first quarter of 2020, showing a very beautiful performance. The human quality does have a significant improvement trend, and the future growth rate is worth looking forward to.
The advantage of increasing the amount of life insurance is that the amount of insurance can be increased, and then through the operations such as withdrawal of the amount of insurance and addition of insurance, the flexibility is much higher than that of traditional life insurance products. At first, the increased lifetime life insurance sold very well in Hong Kong, and then was introduced to the mainland, becoming the main battlefield for small and medium-sized life insurance enterprises to match brokerage companies. Until the last two years, large life insurance enterprises have launched such products. At the same time, the cbcirc issued a notice in October 2021, raising the sales threshold of life insurance products and rectifying Internet sales. In this context, the increased lifetime life is expected to relay the serious illness insurance and turn the tide. On April 8, Ping An released the "Shengshi Jinyue" to increase the life-long life, make efforts to provide for the aged at home, further give play to the comprehensive strength of "insurance +" and the short-term prosperity is improving.
Auto insurance is moving forward steadily: China Property Insurance maintains its comparative advantage and maintains a high outlook
In March, the original premium of China property insurance increased by 10% year-on-year, Ping An Property Insurance + 9%, CPIC property insurance + 11%, and the scale advantage increased steadily. Compared with the strong growth in January and February, the growth rate of auto insurance premium decreased. The growth rate of the whole industry in March was only 3.2%, and that of China property insurance was 4.6%, which still has a strong comparative advantage. Meanwhile, the new car market was weak in the first quarter, and the average vehicle premium drove the growth. Considering the impact of inflation, we expect that the average vehicle premium will continue to rise, the scale of the auto insurance market will continue to grow, and the auto insurance will maintain a high outlook throughout the year. At the same time, the catastrophe risk fell year-on-year, and the profit of non auto insurance may usher in an inflection point. On the whole, China Property Insurance maintained a high outlook.
Investment advice: Life Insurance β， Property insurance α， Maintain the "over allocation" rating of the sector. Under the steady growth policy, the asset side of life insurance benefits, while the liability side improves, and the industry boom is upward. At the same time, the average vehicle premium is expected to continue to increase, rather than the turning point of vehicle insurance profit, and China Property Insurance maintains a high outlook. We maintain the "over allocation" rating for the insurance industry, the first of which is α China Property Insurance and β Strong attribute Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) .
Risk tips: macro, epidemic and other systemic risks, sharp decline in new life insurance orders, decline in auto insurance premiums, etc.
