The number of infrastructure projects in the East and the west is expected to continue to exceed expectations. 1) On April 15, the national development and Reform Commission held a press conference to introduce the situation of actively expanding effective investment. In terms of new IT infrastructure, according to the report of the national development and Reform Commission, among the 10 national data center clusters in China since this year, 25 new projects have been started, and the scale of data centers has reached 540000 standard racks, exceeding 10% of the existing stock scale; The investment in all sectors exceeded 190 billion yuan, of which the investment in the western region increased six times over the same period last year. Looking forward to the “14th five year plan” period, the national development and Reform Commission said that the investment in big data center will increase by more than 20% every year, and the cumulative investment in all aspects will exceed 3 trillion yuan. We expect that the overall investment volume of “counting from the east to the west” is large and fast, and the progress is expected to continue to exceed expectations. 2) Since this year, the digital economy has become an important strategy for China’s development. As the bottom base, it infrastructure has the highest development importance, and the related projects of “counting from the east to the west” have also been fully launched. In the future, the national development and Reform Commission said it would further strengthen the overall planning, accelerate the improvement of the influence and cohesion of the eight computing power hubs, and effectively drive the upstream and downstream of the big data center industry.
The penetration of cloud computing in China is unstoppable, and the upstream demand is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. In the first half of 2020, the industrial investment cycle superimposed the impact of the covid-19 epidemic, the offline traffic continued to migrate online, the demand for cloud office and cloud video broke out, and the overall cloud computing industry chain grew at a high speed. From the second half of 2020 to the first half of 2021, the global economic growth is sluggish, and the cloud upstream investment has also entered the digestion cycle, which has affected the cloud computing demand on the 2B or 2G end, and the cloud upstream has entered the verification period. Since the second half of 2021, the penetration of cloud computing in China is unstoppable, and the upstream demand is expected to rebound: 1) according to IDC statistics, the overall cloud computing market in China, including cloud services, cloud related services and cloud infrastructure construction, reached US $32.9 billion in 2019, and the market scale is expected to reach more than US $100 billion in 2024. 2) On the one hand, the non internet industry has developed rapidly, and the purchase of operators’ servers may increase significantly. According to the disclosure of caizhao.com, China Mobile’s centralized procurement of PC servers reached 204700 units from 2021 to 2022, a year-on-year increase of about 48% China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) 20212022: the centralized procurement of servers reached 200000 units, with a year-on-year increase of about 255%. It is worth mentioning that the proportion of operators’ Xinchuang servers is expected to continue to increase, and the proportion of G Series in China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) procurement has reached 27%. 3) On the other hand, for Internet manufacturers, Alibaba cloud’s revenue growth fluctuated slightly due to accidental factors, but q4apex’s year-on-year growth rate has significantly increased to 128%, verifying the penetration trend of cloud computing. Subsequently, China’s Internet governance is also expected to gradually enter a stable period, and the demand of the server industry is expected to be released steadily.
There are frequent recovery signals in the upper reaches of the global cloud, and the landscape of new IT infrastructure is expected to be gradually repaired. 1) The cloud revenue of major overseas manufacturers continued to increase rapidly in 2021q4, the year-on-year growth rate of AWS revenue still reached about 40%, and the year-on-year growth rate of Google cloud and azure was about 45%, which verified the rapid growth trend of global cloud computing. 2) In terms of capital expenditure, cloud manufacturers are expected to generally improve in 2022. Amazon said that infrastructure capital expenditure will continue to rise; Google expects capital expenditure to increase significantly, and servers may become the biggest driver of technology infrastructure; Meta estimates that the level of capital expenditure will be between us $29-34 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 53-79% in 2021. 3) From the perspective of upstream manufacturers, the growth rate of Intel DCG continues to pick up, reaching 20% in 2021q4, and sapphire rapids processor is expected to promote the upgrading of servers; The year-on-year growth rate of aspeed’s monthly revenue continued to improve, with an increase of about 66% in March 2022. 4) With the superposition of many forward-looking signals around the world, the prosperity of the new IT infrastructure industry is expected to continue to improve.
Investment object
It infrastructure: Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) , Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology Co.Ltd(300212) , Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) etc
Application of data elements and data security: Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , etc
Industrial Digitization: Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co.Ltd(002153) , Guangzhou Sie Consulting Co.Ltd(300687) , Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) , etc
Huawei Xinchuang: Beijing Vastdata Technology Co.Ltd(603138) , Digital China Group Co.Ltd(000034) etc
Risk tip: policy promotion is less than expected, fiscal expenditure is less than expected, and the economic downturn is more than expected.
