Key changes in the industry this week (04110415): ① the people’s Bank of China decided to reduce the reserve requirement by 0.25 percentage points on April 25. ② At the meeting of the national development and Reform Commission, it was mentioned that “actively expand effective investment”. ③ Mr. Yin Zibo was elected as Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) chairman and Mr. Jia Tongchun as vice chairman. ④ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) issue 2021 annual report Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) issue the first quarterly report Shandong Longquan Pipeline Engineering Co.Ltd(002671) , China West Construction Group Co.Ltd(002302) , Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) released the first quarter performance forecast. ⑤ Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) suspended trading, proposed to issue A-Shares for share exchange to absorb and consolidate CSCEC information, and sold cement and other assets to Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) at the same time. ⑥ The competent department of Fujian Province notified that the peak shifting production of Fujian Cement Inc(600802) industry in 2022 should be suspended. ⑦ From April 30 to May 4 in Huaibei City, Anhui Province, the first suite can receive a maximum reward of 60000 yuan; Kunming issued 25 opinions on promoting the stable development of the real estate market. ⑧ From April 1 to 12, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 233000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 21.5% and a year-on-year ratio of – 55.6%.
Core view: both the infrastructure chain and the real estate chain are growing steadily, focusing on actively expanding effective investment
(1) the goal of steady growth is firm. It is expected that after the completion of epidemic prevention, infrastructure will continue to hedge against downward pressure. From the perspective of infrastructure chain, construction, cement and pipeline sectors are more relevant. This week, the national development and Reform Commission on expanding effective investment mentioned at the meeting that “we will continue to increase financial support for major transportation infrastructure projects”, encourage participation in REITs pilot projects, and “102 major projects are progressing smoothly, and livelihood projects such as the transformation of old urban communities should be implemented as soon as possible”. At the end of March, the national regular meeting mentioned that “maintaining the stable operation of the economy in the first quarter and the first half of the year is very important to achieve the annual goal; placing steady growth in a more prominent position”. At the same time, a number of new water conservancy projects with mature conditions were started this year, with an investment of 800 billion yuan in water conservancy projects throughout the year. Recently, we have paid attention to the announcement of major project investment arrangements by provinces and cities. To a certain extent, the epidemic occupies the control energy of local governments. We are optimistic about the implementation of early year planning and recovery after the epidemic. Focus on [ Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) ] [ Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) ] [ Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) ] [ Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ] [ China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) ].
(2) continue to be optimistic about the real estate chain, and more cities join the “because of the city” to relax. We are optimistic about the target with the characteristics of both start-up and growth. ① After 3-4 months, it is expected to accelerate the change of marginal consumption and basic performance of cement; ② Cost side pressure has been fully recognized, and price increases have been hedged in waterproof, coating, cement and other industries; ③ In 2021, the growth rate of real estate sales, commencement and construction is high before and low after, and the Q1 base is high. The dynamic PE of consumer building materials elasticity leader in 2022 is generally 10-15x, and the core leader is 20-25x. We suggest to pay attention to: ① valuation and repair space; ② Profit expectation and repair space. The core leader’s mark [ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 372 ].
(3) the short-term sales volume of cement decreases, the cost increases and the inventory increases, but it is used at the starting end of the real estate chain / infrastructure chain. It is expected that the fundamentals of Q2 will improve, focusing on [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ] [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ] [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ]. This week, the growth rate of cement storage capacity slowed down from the month on month ratio, + 0.06 percentage points to 67.2%, year-on-year + 19 percentage points.
(4) continue to pay attention to the performance of the first quarter report. It is expected that the glass fiber and retail building materials sectors are relatively prominent, [ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ] [ Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ] [ Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) ] show both volume and price increases, and benefit from overseas. Optimistic about just need support + real estate boom repair, superposition of hardcover slowdown, better cash flow and profit margin of retail and distribution mode, core recommendation [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profit and concentric circle acceleration; Focus on the [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] launched by the C-end and integrated company, and [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] with outstanding retail brand strength.
(5) the new order price of photovoltaic glass in April is mainly driven by cost (natural gas + freight).
Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
