Industry perspective
Supply: disturbance repair of stock projects, Indonesia nickel contributed the largest increment, with a total supply increment of 560000 tons.
From the perspective of stock: in 21 years, many global nickel production projects were disturbed by accidents and reduced production, and marginal repair will contribute to some increment. It is estimated that the corresponding product increment of nickel sulfide ore in the world will be 4 / 20000 tons in 22 / 23 years; The increment of FeNi in laterite nickel ore stock by wet fire method is 6 / 20000 tons; The NPI production of laterite nickel ore in China is subject to the supply ceiling of nickel ore, and the production is expected to be reduced by 1 / 20000 tons in 22 / 23 years respectively.
Increment angle: Indonesia laterite nickel ore fire method and wet method have large increment. 1) Wet process: the contribution increment of 22 / 23 years is 80000 / 140000 tons, mainly from Liqin obi and Huayou Huayue project. 2) Fire Law: the 21 year epidemic has delayed the release of supply. It is estimated that the increment of Indonesia pyrometallurgical ferronickel & high matte project in 22 / 23 will be 390000 tons, mainly from Qingshan IWIP Park and Delong phase II and III.
Demand: large base of stainless steel + high growth rate of battery jointly push up the demand, with a total demand increment of 270000 tons.
Stainless steel: at present, stainless steel accounts for more than 70% of the demand for nickel. There are significant differences in the amount of nickel used by different stainless steel varieties. The increase of stainless steel output + structural optimization drive the demand for nickel. It is estimated that the growth rate of global stainless steel production in 22 / 23 will be 5%, and considering the dual logic assumption of stainless steel supply end and demand end, 80% of the increment comes from high nickel 300 series and 20% from nickel free 400 series. It is estimated that the demand for nickel in the field of stainless steel will increase by 130000 / 140000 tons in 22-23 years.
Battery: the explosive growth in the production and sales of new energy vehicles has driven the demand for nickel. The consumption of ternary positive nickel has increased from 0.39kg/kwh of ncm333 to 0.72kg/kwh of ncm811. The increase of power battery installed capacity and the trend of ternary high nickel have brought about the increase of nickel demand. Based on the assumption of 49% / 40% growth rate of global new energy vehicle sales in 22 / 23, it is estimated that the demand increment of nickel in battery field in 22 / 23 is 120000 tons, and the partial deviation of actual production and sales has little impact on the overall pattern of supply-demand balance.
Supply and demand balance: the global nickel surplus rate in 22 years and the excess range in 23 years exceeded 22 years.
The total global nickel supply / demand in 22 years was 3.24/3.07 million tons respectively, with an estimated surplus of 160000 tons. The main risk on the supply side is that the new project is put into operation less than expected due to the intensification of the epidemic in Indonesia. The slower than expected rate of ferronickel to high matte will also lead to the structural shortage of electrolytic nickel. With the continuous landing of Indonesia’s nickel production capacity, the 22 year nickel probability will move from tight balance to excess. At present, the inventory is at the low level in recent ten years, and the demand for replenishment will partially alleviate the overall surplus situation of the industry.
23 years of nickel surplus with certainty. Based on the publicly disclosed new investment project of intermediate products in Indonesia, it is estimated that the increase of nickel supply in Indonesia in 23 years is Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons, resulting in an excess nickel supply of 500000 tons in 23 years. The actual output of intermediate products may be lower than expected due to the bottleneck of the output of laterite nickel ore in Indonesia. Therefore, the certainty of nickel surplus in 23 years is strong, and the range is more than 22 years, but the specific supply is still uncertain.
Investment suggestion & investment object
In the past 22 years, with nickel moving from shortage to surplus, there was downward pressure on nickel price. It is suggested to pay attention to two types of targets: first, enterprises with stock capacity under the current high nickel price and continuous volume increase caused by the landing of new projects; Second, enterprises with significant cost advantages in process route. Focus on the layout Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (marginal increment of 22-24 nickel production + significant cost advantage of wet hpal), Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) (current full production of stock Youshan project + contribution increment of new Shengmai project).
Risk tips
The risk of aggravating the epidemic in Indonesia; Indonesia nickel related policy adjustment risk; Risk of limited supply of Russian nickel; Risk of accidents.
