In March, the market growth of new energy vehicles was clear and the industry was booming. In mid March, the production and sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the market were 465000 and 484000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 114.8% and 114.1%, a month on month increase of 25.4% and 43.9%. The overall production and sales growth trend was clear. From the perspective of brands and models, the Byd Company Limited(002594) Dynasty achieved glory again and achieved consecutive titles, and Wuling Hongguang Mini ranked first in sales. The new forces of car making continued to perform strongly, and Nezha, the second echelon, rose strongly and launched an assault on the front-line camp of the new forces. High quality models continue to be launched, and the prosperity of the new energy market will be further improved. It is estimated that the sales volume of electric vehicles is expected to reach 11 million in 2025, the CAGR will reach 35.1% in four years, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 39%.
The loading volume of power battery continues to rise, and the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate leads by three yuan. In March, the output of power batteries continued to rise, totaling 39.2gwh, up 247.3% year-on-year and 23.3% month on month. The cumulative output in the first quarter of this year was 100.6wgh. In March, the loading volume of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries totaled 21.4gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 138.0% and a month on month increase of 40.5%. The month on month growth continued to maintain a substantial growth year-on-year. On the whole, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) accounts for half of the country, and the industry concentration is further intensified. From the perspective of technical route, the total loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery in February was 13.2gwh, a year-on-year increase of 238.8%, a month on month increase of 69.4%, and the market share reached 61.55%, further increasing by 4.66 percentage points compared with 56.89% in February this year. At present, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ranks first in the world in terms of loading capacity, and China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises have risen to achieve anti overtaking. The global high-quality supply continues to expand, and the total capacity planning will reach a new high in the future. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the downstream is full of momentum, and the loading volume of power batteries continues to increase. The new production capacity is climbing, the output of all links of power battery is full, and the outlook of battery industry chain remains high.
The charging infrastructure continues to be matched, and the power exchange layout accelerates the evolution of the power battery market. From the perspective of charging infrastructure, the number of public charging piles in China reached 1232000 in March, an increase of 19000 compared with February this year, and the increment ratio of pile vehicles from January to march was 1:2.6. In terms of charging capacity, the total national charging power in March was about 1.08 billion kwh, a decrease of 100 million kwh compared with February, 46.2% year-on-year and 8.7% month on month. On the whole, at present, the construction area of charging piles in China is relatively centralized, the concentration of charging power is high, and the charging demand of frequent blowing of policy warm air is expanded, driving the rapid promotion of power exchange facilities. The proportion of public charging infrastructure built in the top 10 regions in China is as high as 72%, and the total charging capacity in the top 10 regions is as high as 733 million kwh, accounting for a total of 67.9%. Among the top 10 regions, Guangdong Province ranks first in the ownership of public charging piles and charging power, and Beijing ranks first in the total number of replacement power stations. The number of power exchange stations of major power exchange operators is still increasing, and the coverage is gradually expanding. All manufacturers actively arrange charging and replacement services, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) actively promote the application of power replacement heavy card, Weilai continues to arrange the field of power replacement, promote the evolution of electric vehicle industry and speed up the process of industrial electrification.
Investment suggestions: 1) the long-term competition pattern is better and there are marginal changes in the short term. Key recommendations: A. battery: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ; b. Diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ; c. Thermal management: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ; d. High voltage DC: Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) ; e. Thin film capacitance: Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , it is recommended to pay attention to Xi’An Sinofuse Electric Co.Ltd(301031) etc. 2) 4680 technology iteration, driving the upgrading of the industrial chain. 4680 can achieve 210wh / kg at present. If high nickel 91 series and silicon carbon negative electrode are used in the subsequent system, the energy density of the system may be close to 270wh / kg, which can greatly solve the problem of heat management of high nickel series. Key points: A. large cylindrical shell: Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) ; b. High nickel positive electrode: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) , Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ; c. Layout lifsi: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) . 3) Look at the high boom industrial chain with tight supply and demand in 2-3 years. Focus on: A. diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.Ltd(002108) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ; b. Copper foil: Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Far East Smarter Energy Co.Ltd(600869) ; c. Negative pole: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , beiteri, Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) upstream raw materials rose more than expected. 2) The terminal demand is lower than expected. 3) The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations. 4) Chip supply recovery was lower than expected.
