In 2021, the output of renewable energy such as hydropower is insufficient, and the thermal power load increases. In 2021, China's economy recovered rapidly, the demand for electricity increased significantly, and the power consumption of the whole society increased by 10.3% year-on-year. However, affected by factors such as insufficient output of renewable energy such as hydropower, thermal power generation increased by 9.1% year-on-year. In terms of renewable energy, in 2021, the inflow of hydropower was relatively dry, the power generation decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, and the proportion of power generation decreased by 1.8pct to 16.0%; The installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic is relatively small, and the total power generation in 2021 is 11.7%.
When the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society is 5% in 2022, the demand for power coal is expected to be weak as a whole
1) it is estimated that the newly installed capacity of thermal power may be 57.65 million kW in 2022. According to the guidance on energy work in 2022 issued by the National Energy Administration in March 2022, China's power installation target at the end of 2022 is 2.6 billion kw, an increase of 223 million KW year-on-year. According to the forecast of China Power Council, by the end of 2022, the installed capacity of hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic and nuclear power will reach 4.1/3.8/4.0/56 million KW, and the installed capacity of thermal power will reach 1.354 billion kw, an increase of 57.65 million KW year-on-year.
2) when the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society is 5%, the growth rate of thermal power generation is expected to be 1.1% ~ 2.6%. According to our calculation, when the utilization hours of hydropower are the low level of incoming water, the three-year average value from 2019 to 2021 and the high level of incoming water, i.e. 3622 / 3715 / 3827 hours, and the growth rate of power consumption of the whole society in 2022 is 3% ~ 10%, the year-on-year growth rate of thermal power generation is - 1.8% ~ 10.1%. Under the neutral assumption, in 2022, when the growth rate of power consumption of the whole society is 5%, the growth rate of thermal power generation is expected to be 1.1% ~ 2.6%; Under the pessimistic assumption, when the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society is 3%, the growth rate of thermal power generation is - 1.8% - 0.3%. Under neutral and pessimistic assumptions, the low-speed growth or negative growth of thermal power generation indicates that the demand for power coal may be weak as a whole in 2022.
Investment suggestion: for the industry, in 2022, when the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society is 5% and 3%, the growth rate of thermal power generation is 1.1% ~ 2.6% and - 1.8% ~ 0.3% respectively. The demand for electric coal may be weak as a whole. Maintain the industry "recommended" rating. In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to recommend Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , and it is suggested to pay attention to the thermal power targets that are expected to improve profits Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , China Resources Power, China power, Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; Longyuan Power, Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , CGN new energy.
Risk warning: the demand for electricity is declining; The installed capacity is less than expected; The incoming water is more dry than expected; Focus on the improvement of the company's performance as expected; Risk of policy change; The calculation is subjective and for reference only.
