Core view
Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle this week, the sectors of white household appliances, furniture, kitchen appliances and small household appliances showed relatively strong performance. The CSI 300 index fell 0.99% this week. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, white household appliances, furniture, kitchen appliances and small household appliances rose 2.81%, 1.38%, 1.36% and 0.49% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 3.80pct, 2.37pct, 2.36pct and 1.48pct respectively. The black household appliances, lighting electricians and service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sectors fell 3.60%, 2.98% and 2.30% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 2.61pct, 1.99pct and 1.31pct respectively.
Domestic sales: in March, the online retail sales of dishwashers and integrated stoves maintained a positive year-on-year growth. (1) Upstream raw material prices: this week, the price of chemical raw materials for soft furniture fell, the price of copper rose, the price of aluminum fell, the price of stainless steel remained unchanged, and the price trend of plastic raw materials was differentiated. (2) China’s real estate demand: from January to February 2022, the year-on-year decline in the sales area of new houses narrowed, and the completed area turned to a year-on-year negative growth; In March 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to grow negatively year-on-year. According to the real estate data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2022, the national residential sales area decreased by 13.8% and the completed area decreased by 9.6% year-on-year; In terms of second-hand housing transactions, in March 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in China’s top 10 cities was 41900 units, a year-on-year decrease of 47%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistical data of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses nationwide was about 38000 in February 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%. (3) Retail tracking: from January to February 2022, the retail sales of furniture decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the retail sales of household appliances increased by 12.7% year-on-year. In terms of sub categories, according to the monitoring data of ovicloud, the online retail sales of dishwashers and integrated stoves increased by 10.6% and 12.2% year-on-year respectively in March 2022, and the online sales of cigarette stoves, kitchen appliances, cleaning appliances and sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) decreased by 7.3%, 29.5%, 18.7% and 22.9% year-on-year respectively.
Export: in March 2022, the export volume of furniture turned to a positive year-on-year growth, and the export volume of household appliances continued to grow negatively year-on-year. (1) Overseas real estate demand: in February 2022, the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 2% year-on-year, with continuous negative growth; In February 2022, the number of new construction projects increased by 22% year-on-year, with a positive year-on-year increase. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in March 2022, the export volume of furniture turned to positive year-on-year growth (7%), and the export volume of household appliances continued to negative year-on-year growth (- 9%). According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of electric kettle, toaster and other categories in January 2022 was significantly higher than that in December 2021, but the year-on-year growth rate of exports of electric frying pan, microwave oven and other categories decreased. In February 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of microwave ovens increased compared with January, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports of other categories fell to varying degrees.
Investment proposal and investment object
It is suggested to select the real estate post cycle leader that builds a solid foundation in emerging channels, category integration, etc. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized household leaders Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ( Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ( Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) ( Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) , overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ( Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , not rated), software furniture leaders Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ( Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , not rated); Benefiting from the high growth in emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, which have benefited from the high growth in emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances. It is suggested to focus on China’s sweeping the floor Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) \ \ Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) ( Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) , overweight).
Risk tips
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
