Main points:
Nonferrous Metals underperformed the market this week, down 2.93%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to close at 321124; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.60% to close at 1164857; The CSI 300 rose 0.99% to close at 418875.
Base metal
The base metal futures market was mixed this week. Futures market: LME copper, lead and zinc increased by 0.18%, 6.36% and 3.25% over the same period last week; LME aluminum, tin and nickel fell by 2.97%, 0.34% and 2.14% compared with the same period last week. China’s spot market: copper, zinc and nickel increased by 1.05%, 2.07% and 4.95%; Aluminum, lead and tin decreased by 1.72%, 2.26% and 0.37% respectively.
Copper: copper prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply disturbance of overseas copper mines in Peru and Chile remained. During the week, the supply of copper mines in Peru continued to shrink. At the same time, Chile raised copper prices, and the overall supply of overseas raw materials tightened. In China, it is difficult for overseas ships to enter the port. At the same time, the impact of the Chinese epidemic continues, the logistics and transportation are blocked, and some copper processing enterprises reduce production and stop work. In terms of inventory, as of Friday, SHFE copper inventory was about 88700 tons, down 8.18% from the same period last week. Short term supply side concerns combined with overseas high inflation gave some support to copper prices. Aluminum: aluminum prices continued to rise this week. Natural gas continues to soar in Europe and the United States, and the energy cost of smelting enterprises is still high. At the same time, the United States will increase sanctions and impose an additional 1% import tariff on Rusal, leaving the tense situation of overseas supply unchanged. In the Chinese market, the resumption of production in Yunnan, Guangxi and other places is smooth, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is released in an orderly manner, while the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is still declining due to epidemic factors. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the marginal change of aluminum inventory. As of Friday, SHFE aluminum inventory was 299900 tons, down 2.46% from the same period last week. Zinc: the realization of zinc price is strong this week. Recently, affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine and high energy prices, the shutdown of overseas zinc smelters led to lower output expectations, the global refined zinc inventory remained at a level, and the zinc price continued to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co.Ltd(600497) .
New energy metals
The price of new energy metals was stable this week. Cobalt: the price of cobalt continued to decline this week. As of Friday, the spot price of cobalt in the Yangtze River was 559000 yuan / ton, down 0.89% from last week. The price of cobalt sulfate was 118000 yuan / ton, maintaining the price of last week; The price of Co3O4 was 432500 yuan / ton, down 1.14% from last week. Overseas, cobalt transportation and supply were blocked due to the impact of floods in South Africa. Many Chinese enterprises have just stopped production and need to purchase from the terminal market in Shanghai. Lithium: the price of lithium products differentiated this week. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 460000 yuan / ton, down 3.16% from last week; The price of lithium hydroxide was 508900 yuan / ton, up 3.04% from last week. Lithium prices fell this week, but the short-term supply increment is limited, supporting lithium prices to remain high. In terms of demand, affected by the recent epidemic in China, downstream manufacturers have reduced production and stopped work. At present, Shanghai is actively promoting manufacturers to resume production, and the impact of the epidemic on demand is limited. It is suggested to focus on Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , targets of cobalt industry integration layout; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of lithium in Salt Lake: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Related objects of lepidolite: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) ; Related subject matter of spodumene: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
Precious metals
Precious metal prices rose this week. Gold: as of Thursday, Comex gold price was US $197710/oz, up 2.19% from last week; Spot gold in London was 196325 US dollars / ounce, up 1.60% from last week. Silver: Comex silver price was US $25.86/oz, up 4.63% from last week; The spot silver price in London was US $25.66/ounce, down 5.23%. The Fed expects to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May, superimposed on the strong U.S. economic data last week, driving the continued strength of the dollar and the rise of treasury bond yields, and the price of gold is under pressure. However, the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to ferment, and the price of gold still has the power of action against the background of high global inflation. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) .
Risk tips
The demand is less than expected; The geopolitical war between Russia and Ukraine continued to ferment; The risk of Fed policy changes; The epidemic in Shanghai is out of control.
