In March, the aviation recovery was impacted by the epidemic, and the passenger turnover and seating rate decreased significantly: in March, the total RPK of the three major airlines was – 66.6% (January February was + 23.5%) year-on-year, and the total ask was – 60.0% (January February was + 21.9%) year-on-year; Compared with 2019, the three major airlines rpk-77.2% and ask-69.5% in March. In March, the total seating rate of the three major airlines was 61.5%, down 1.4pct from 62.9% from January to February, and there is still a large gap from 82.2% in March 2019. In March, the epidemic situation in Guangdong and Jilin continued to repeat, the epidemic situation in Shanghai gradually developed, and China’s travel demand was significantly impacted; At the same time, due to the gradual liberalization of overseas, the epidemic in Omicron has been repeated, the number of international flights has increased, and the traffic volume of international lines has continued to decline.
The epidemic has spread in many places, and the performance of each airline company is basically the same. The passenger occupancy rate of China Southern Airlines is the leader in the spring and Autumn period. Among the three airlines, the passenger occupancy rate of China Southern Airlines is the leader: in March, the RPK of China Southern Airlines was – 71.43% compared with that in 2019, with a decrease significantly lower than that of Air China (- 81.91%) and China Eastern Airlines (- 79.49%). We believe that the main reason is that the current round of epidemic has seriously impacted first tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, the number of aircraft of China Southern Airlines is large, and the proportion of second and third tier airport routes is greater than that of Air China and China; Meanwhile, China Eastern Airlines was impacted by the air crash, and the number of flights decreased significantly in late March. In terms of passenger seat rate, spring and autumn led the industry with 67.53%. Among the three major airlines, China Southern Airlines had a passenger seat rate of 64.13%, leading Air China and China Eastern Airlines.
Since April, the epidemic situation has continued to develop, and the number of flights has reached a new low after the epidemic. Pay attention to the inflection point of this round of epidemic situation: the epidemic situation in Shanghai has continued to develop since April. The number of newly diagnosed + asymptomatic infections has exceeded 20000 since April 7, up to 23519 as of April 15, which is still at a high level. Under the influence of the epidemic, the number of flights continued to decline in April. The average daily number of flights from April 1 to April 15 was 2662, a year-on-year increase of – 80.09%, compared with – 81.32% in 2019. At present, the aviation operation is close to the freezing point. According to the ticket sales of Ctrip on April 16, the supply side will gradually recover, and the number of flights between Shanghai and Beijing will rise to 60 classes / day on April 29. At present, the sealing, control and isolation policy is still strict. It is expected that it will take time for the passenger occupancy and ticket price to rise. Pay attention to the inflection point of the epidemic and the subsequent recovery of demand.
The overseas aviation industry continues to recover. After the epidemic subsides, China’s demand is expected to rise rapidly. It is optimistic about the marginal relaxation of international flight policies: as of April 2022, the number of flights and passenger throughput in the United States have recovered to 85% and 93% respectively before the epidemic; The number of flights in Europe recovered to more than 80% in the same period of 19 years. Based on the recovery data of the United States and Europe, the flight volume and passenger volume will continue to recover after the epidemic, and the passenger seat rate and ticket price will continue to return to the level before the epidemic. After the current round of epidemic subsides, China’s airline demand is expected to rise rapidly. Pay attention to the release of demand during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and summer transportation. In terms of international routes, under the background of continuous liberalization overseas, it is expected that China will gradually relax the isolation and control requirements through pilot, and resume international flights. It is optimistic that international flights will gradually enter the recovery stage.
Investment suggestion: on the demand side, the short-term impact of the epidemic is expected to approach the inflection point, and the suppressed travel demand will gradually recover. On the supply side, the introduction of airlines’ transport capacity is slow, and it will take time for Boeing and Airbus to accumulate orders and restore production capacity. After years of sinking market development, China’s airspace resources are close to the bottleneck, and the low-speed growth of supply in the medium term has high certainty. In addition, the market-oriented reform of civil aviation ticket prices has opened up the space for price elasticity. The inflection point of supply and demand certainty is superimposed on the upward ticket price, and aviation is expected to usher in a round of growth cycle. Focus on recommending Air China Limited(601111) (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); Low cost of aviation; China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , with high proportion of Chinese lines and high performance flexibility; China Eastern Airlines with obvious location advantages; Pay attention to regional airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Risk tip: the macroeconomic downturn has led to the reduction of residents’ tourism consumption and public and business travel; China’s epidemic continues to repeat, and the international epidemic control time exceeds expectations, resulting in the recovery progress of air passenger flow lower than expected; Geopolitical risks lead to a sharp rise in international oil prices; The risk of substantial depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
