Piglet prices rose 8% on a weekly basis, and the growth rate of listed pig enterprises continued to differentiate in March.
① pig prices rose by 3.9% on a weekly basis. On Saturday, the national pig price was 12.87 yuan / kg, up 3.9% on a weekly basis; The average wholesale price of pork in China was 18.3 yuan / kg, up 0.4% on a weekly basis; This week, the loss of self breeding pigs was 531.7 yuan / head, and the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding was 314.03 yuan / head. ② The proportion of low weight pigs kept low, and the price of piglets increased by 8% on a weekly basis. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (4.8-4.14): the proportion of domestic pigs in 90kg nationwide accounted for 5.79%, which was flat on a weekly basis, the lowest level since the non plague; This week, the market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm was 444 yuan / head, with a week on month increase of 8.0%, a rise of 188% compared with 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1611 yuan / head, with a week on month decrease of 0.7% and a rise of 30% compared with 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ In March, the growth rate of listed pig enterprises continued to differentiate. In March 2022 in March 2022, the number of listings (thousands of heads) in the march of 2022, from high to low, in order from high to low, from high to low, in the order from high to low: the Lingnan Eco&Culture-Tourism Co.Ltd(002717) 14 33.62, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 198, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) 170, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) 131, Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) 49, Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) 15; The year-on-year growth rate from high to low is in the order from high to low. The year-on-year growth rate from high to low, followed by the year-on-year growth rate from high to low in the order from high to low: that is, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) \ 32.6%, Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) 7.2%, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 1.1%, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) -6.8%, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) -11.6%. ④ The pig price is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023. The valuation of mainstream companies is in the bottom area, so time can change space. The turning point of production capacity of China’s pig breeding industry appeared in June last year: according to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the number of fertile sows in China will increase from 45.64 million at the end of June last year to 42.68 million at the end of February this year, a cumulative decrease of 6.5%; According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.5% month on month in February this year, which is still in the decline channel; Pig prices continued to be depressed in March, and we expect the number of fertile sows in March to continue to decline. Recently, the price of piglets has soared, and the enthusiasm of free range farmers bran has rebounded. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic, the industry will experience the bottom grinding stage this year, and the pig price is expected to enter the upward cycle in 2023. We’re counting the market value of each pig’s head with the expected roll out in 2022, and we’re counting the market value of each pig’s head by the expected volume of the year that will be expected in 2022. We’re counting the market value of each pig’s head, which is the market value of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) in the expected roll out in 2022. We’re counting the market value of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) \ , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) .
In March, the renewal of white feather ancestors increased by 54.5% year-on-year, and the price of yellow feather chicken fell week on week.
① in March, the renewal of Baiyu ancestors increased by 54.5% year-on-year. In the 14th week of 2022 (4.4-4.10), the price of parental chicken seedlings was 16.45 yuan / set, with a decrease of 16.6% on a weekly basis; The sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings was 888600 sets, up 13.5% month on month; On Friday, the price of white feather chicken products was 10150 yuan / ton, up 2.2% week on week. China Poultry Industry Association released the March report: 296900 sets of white feather ancestors were updated in 2022q1, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%, of which 135500 sets were updated in March, an increase of 54.5%; In 2022q1, the sales volume of parental chicken seedlings was 135111 million sets, a year-on-year decrease of 8.03%. We maintain our previous judgment that the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million units in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; In 2021, the national ancestral renewal volume increased by 24.3% year-on-year, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices fell week on week. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 is second only to that in 2013 impacted by the “human infection h7n9 epidemic”, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 21, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. As of April 15, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast chicken was 6.07 yuan / kg, down 4.4% month on week and 0.8% year-on-year; The average price of medium speed chicken was 6.69 yuan / kg, down 2.2% month on week and 9.4% year-on-year; The average price of native chicken was 7.72 yuan / kg, down 3.6% in the week and 2.9% year-on-year; Black bone chicken was 8.45 yuan / kg, down 4.2% month on week and up 12.1% year-on-year.
The commercialization of genetically modified organisms is gradually approaching, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price is expected to remain high.
① the commercialization of genetically modified crops is gradually approaching, and it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of seed industry Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) have obtained biosafety certificate for genetically modified maize traits Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) has high-quality maize germplasm resources, and the quality of germplasm resources is very important to the quality of transgenic varieties; As a global agricultural technology giant and China’s seed industry national team, Syngenta ranks third in seed business and first in plant protection business in the world. It is one of the companies with the richest seed product portfolio in the world. Syngenta has developed more than 6000 seed products with independent intellectual property rights, established more than 100 breeding and germplasm improvement centers in the world’s main seed markets, and the annual R & D cost is nearly 10 billion yuan. We judge that Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Syngenta are expected to stand out in the commercialization process of China’s genetically modified seed industry, and the seed industry sector is expected to fluctuate upward. ② Corn prices may remain relatively high in 2022. USDA’s supply and demand report in April predicted that the global corn stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.5%, the lowest since 16 / 17. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in April: the national corn balance in 2021 / 22 is 4.83 million tons, which is the same as that in March and 3.24 million tons lower than that in 2020 / 21. In the year of 21 / 22, China’s corn supply and demand is in a tight balance. We expect that the corn price may remain relatively high in 2022. On Friday, the spot price of corn was 283875 yuan / ton, down 0.06% on a week-on-week basis and 0.74% on a year-on-year basis; ③ Wheat prices may remain relatively high in 2022.
The supply and demand report of USDA in April predicted that the global wheat stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 35.2%, down 1.9 percentage points compared with that in 20 / 21 and 0.6 percentage points compared with the predicted value in March, still at the lowest level since 16 / 17; ④ Soybean and soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The USDA’s supply and demand report in April predicted that the global soybean stock consumption ratio was 24.8% and the global soybean meal stock consumption ratio was 5.4% in 2021 / 22, the lowest level since 11 / 12. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in April: the national soybean balance in 2021 / 22 is 170000 tons, which is the same as that in March, a decrease of 5.89 million tons compared with that in 20 / 21. We expect soybean and soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022. On Friday, the spot price of soybean was 568895 yuan / ton, up 3.4% on a weekly basis and 12.1% on a year-on-year basis; The spot price of soybean meal was 4540 yuan / ton, up 0.8% on a weekly basis and 29.5% on a year-on-year basis.
China’s pet market has great potential, and the epidemic has dragged down the gradual end.
From 2010 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China’s pet consumption market was as high as 30.9%; In 2020, the scale growth of China’s pet consumption market slowed down to 2% and maintained single digit growth in 2021. We believe that the main reason for the slowdown in 20202021 is that the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic has significantly increased the downward pressure on the economy and delayed the entry of potential PET consumers into the market. However, from the medium and long-term perspective, the penetration rate of pets in China is 17%, while that in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and Japan is as high as 68%, 62%, 45% and 38% respectively; The annual consumption expenditure of pet dogs and cats in China is US $869 and US $679 respectively, which are lower than that of major pet breeding countries. China’s pet consumption market has great growth potential. From the perspective of the company, Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) is affected by the exchange and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) is affected by the shutdown of the factory in Vietnam. We continue to recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) .
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
