Key investment points:
Market review of this week: SW light industry manufacturing industry lost 300 in Shanghai and Shenzhen this week. From April 11 to April 15, 2022, 29.03% of shenwanyi industry recorded positive earnings; SW light manufacturing industry index fell 1.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by about 0.52 percentage points in the same period. Only SW entertainment products recorded positive earnings, with a weekly increase of 0.48%; The remaining secondary sub industries recorded negative returns, all of which were lower than the CSI 300 index. SW household products, SW papermaking and SW packaging and printing fell by 1.48%, 1.83% and 2.04% respectively. About 10% of the stocks in the industry recorded positive returns.
Key industry news: (1) the people's Bank of China said at the press conference on financial statistics in the first quarter of 2022 on April 14 that the recent reduction of housing loan interest rate mainly occurred at the bank level. Since March, due to the weakening of market demand, banks in more than 100 cities have independently lowered mortgage interest rates according to market changes and their own business conditions, with an average range of 20 to 60 basis points. (2) Since 2022, the warm wind of multi land real estate policy has been blowing frequently. According to incomplete statistics, more than 60 cities have issued real estate related policies more than 100 times this year, mainly involving targeted relaxation of purchase restriction policies, reduction of down payment ratio, issuance of house purchase subsidies, reduction of mortgage interest rate, cancellation of sales restrictions, provision of financial support for real estate enterprises, etc. (3) The base paper of domestic paper production enterprises in East China with self-produced pulp as raw material was basically the same as that in February, and the finished product price of some enterprises was increased by 300 ~ 500 yuan / T. Among them, in March 2022, due to the increase of raw materials, transportation and other costs, the price of paper in various places generally increased by more than 20%. Among them, the price of base paper in North China increased by about 100 ~ 200 yuan / T, and the price of finished products also increased by about 200 yuan / T. Base paper of some enterprises in Central China increased by about -100 ~ 500 yuan /t. The price of base paper of some enterprises in South China increased by 250 ~ 300 yuan / T, and the price of some finished paper increased by about 300 yuan / T. The price of self-produced bamboo pulp of some enterprises in Southwest China increased by 400 ~ 600 yuan / T, and the price of bamboo pulp base paper increased by about 400 yuan / T.
Maintain the recommended rating of the industry. In terms of household goods, driven by the favorable real estate policy, it is expected to usher in the valuation repair market. Since 2022, the warm wind of real estate policy has been blowing frequently in many places. The central bank said on April 15 that since March this year, more than 100 cities across the country have reduced mortgage interest rates, and the real estate sector has continued to strengthen. As the downstream of the real estate industry, the home sector is currently in the expected improvement stage under the background of steady growth. The valuation of the sector is at the low level in recent years and shows a slight shock trend. The valuation of some leading home companies has fallen back to the bottom area. It is suggested to pay attention to the overall valuation and repair opportunities of the household industry, and continue to pay attention to the high-quality household leaders: Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ( Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ( Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ( Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ), etc.
Risk tips: the prosperity of real estate is less than expected, the covid-19 epidemic continues to repeat, Sino US trade friction, intensified market competition, raw material price fluctuations, macroeconomic policy risks, intensified exchange rate fluctuations and other risks.
