Market review: affected by the epidemic in China, the auto sector continued to adjust this week. This week (4.11-4.15), the overall SW automobile sector was – 2.73%, ranking 15 / 31. SW passenger cars – 2.96%, SW commercial vehicles – 1.91%, SW auto parts – 2.74%, SW Auto Services – 3.23%, SW motorcycles and others – 5.61%. From the perspective of valuation level, the overall PE of SW auto sector was adjusted back to 33.56 times, which was 55.5% in the past five years, and the PE of SW auto parts sub sector was 32.78 times, which was 36.4% in the past five years.
Recent situation of the industry: from April 1 to 10, the wholesale of passenger cars was 242000, with a year-on-year increase of 39%, a month-on-week decrease of 72% and a month-on-month decrease of 45%; Retail sales volume was 246000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32%, a month on week decrease of 67% and a month on month decrease of 39%. Steel, aluminum, copper and other raw materials and freight prices are still high.
The epidemic affected production and waited for the orderly resumption of work. Since March, the epidemic situation in Jilin, Shanghai and Guangdong has been complex, resulting in the shutdown or reduction of production of many local vehicle factories and parts suppliers, with a great impact on the supply chain. The automobile industry chain is complex and involves a wide range. The shutdown in key areas extends to the overall industry chain. The limited supply and high-cost and low-efficiency logistics also have a certain impact on the automobile enterprises in non strict prevention and control areas, and the insurance data are poor. Positive factors: the progress of epidemic control in Jilin is good. FAW started to resume work on April 11. At the same time, the first batch of 47 parts enterprises are returning to work in an orderly manner. Shanghai released the epidemic prevention and control index for resumption of work and production, waiting for the orderly resumption of work in the next step.
Investment suggestion: Although the market is affected by short-term factors, automobile electrification and intellectualization are still the general trend of the industry. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to three main lines: electrification & lightweight: the boom of new energy demand is determined, and the penetration rate continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , etc; Intellectualization: intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving are accelerated, and the intelligent configuration of new cars is continuously improved. It is suggested to pay attention to: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc; Improvement of core shortage: traditional automobile enterprises are greatly impacted by core shortage. With the improvement of supply, enterprise operation is expected to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely motor. At the current time point, the market sentiment is partial to Di Department, waiting for the orderly resumption of work. It is suggested to pay attention to: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) .
Risk tip: the industry’s terminal sales are less than expected, the manufacturer’s R & D or new car release progress is less than expected, the upstream raw material supply is insufficient or the price rise leads to the decline of industry profits, etc.
