Commercial health insurance is expected to become the next growth engine of the industry. (1) Under the background of "healthy China" strategy, the development of commercial health insurance has been paid more and more attention. (2) With the upgrading of health demand and the increase of financial burden, commercial health insurance has the soil for development. With the deepening of China's aging, health risks will gradually increase. With the improvement of the living standards of urban residents + the rigidity of medical and health care expenditure under the epidemic, the demand for health insurance will accelerate in the future. However, China's financial burden continues to increase. According to the who, the proportion of out of pocket health expenditure of Chinese residents (35.2%) in 2019 far exceeds that of the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. It is in urgent need of commercial health insurance supplement. (3) Although the growth rate of health insurance income slows down, there is still much room for development in the future. In 2020, the compensation expenditure of China's commercial health insurance accounted for less than 5% of the total health expenses, while that of the United States reached 31.5% in 2019. At the same time, compared with overseas countries, the depth and density of China's health insurance are far lower than those of the United States, Australia, Germany and France, and there is still much room for development in the future. Product innovation and market segmentation help to release demand. (1) Critical illness insurance: Although the redefinition of critical illness has put pressure on the sales of new products, it is also conducive to the determination of rate. The dilemma mainly comes from the supply side, and the main underwriting responsibilities of critical illness insurance products of various companies are not different. In the future, if we can strengthen the innovation of serious illness insurance products, through regional customization, crowd segmentation and setting a number of optional responsibilities to improve the product cost performance and expand the audience, with the recruitment and cultivation of high-quality agents, serious illness insurance will still be the main product in the future. (2) Medical insurance: as the positioning of Huimin insurance becomes clear, it is not related to the growth and decline of millions of medical insurance, and the squeeze is only temporary. If medical insurance can expand the coverage outside the medical insurance catalogue, optimize the rate adjustment mechanism, develop long-term medical insurance and expand the middle-end medical insurance market in the future, it still has great development potential.
Compared with overseas countries, China can learn from the experience of the United States. (1) Compared with Britain and the United States, China's health care system is more similar to Germany. There are three typical medical insurance models in the world: one is the universal free medical insurance model, which represents the UK; Second, the degree of government participation is low, which is mainly borne by commercial health insurance companies, representing the United States; Third, legal social medical insurance is the main, supplemented by private medical insurance, and the representative country is Germany. (2) China's health care system is now similar to that of Germany, and we need to learn from the experience of the United States in the future. Although we cannot completely copy the American model, the experience of the mature and prosperous commercial health insurance market in the United States under financial pressure is still worth learning from. Therefore, we take united health as an example and learn from its business model. Through the synergy of health insurance and services, United health promotes performance growth, compacts costs for the payment side (i.e. insurance business) from three aspects: loss ratio, expense ratio and drug purchase cost, and releases profits. Its share price has increased nearly 10 times in recent 10 years. Insurance + service, the premium of China's commercial health insurance is expected to reach 5.8 trillion in 2031. (1) With the advent of the era of "insurance + service", China's health management services are developing in a standardized and orderly manner. Differentiated health management services will enable the development of different health insurance products in different market segments. (2) Industrial chain: China is subject to the medical institution system dominated by public hospitals, and the medicine has not been "separated" under the current policy. Commercial health insurance can only passively receive compensation and payment bills and can not grasp the initiative of bargaining. The future development path can only partially learn from the United States and walk out of the model with Chinese characteristics. China can indirectly realize the efficiency of paying end control fees through the synergy of "insurance and medical administration". Ping An empowers the main business of the group through the medical ecosystem, bringing synergy value, which is most similar to United health. (3) According to the goal of the cbcirc, if the premium growth rate of China's commercial health insurance reaches 24.0% per year, it can achieve a premium income of 2 trillion yuan in 2025; According to the goal of the State Council, the premium income of China's commercial health insurance can reach 5.8 trillion yuan in 2031, and under this calculation scenario, the premium income in 2025 is close to the goal of the CBRC.
Investment suggestion: it is recommended that the dividend yield is high and the valuation is low, the transformation of life insurance is deepening, and the Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) ( Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) . SH / 2318. HK) of "insurance + health + pension" industry and Zhong'an online (6060. HK) of online access to health insurance and back-end services are actively arranged.
Risk analysis: the premium income is less than expected; The epidemic situation repeats on a large scale; The impact of the epidemic on Residents' insurance and health awareness is less than expected; The interest rate is lower than expected; Policy changes of regulatory authorities; Changes in the management of insurance enterprises.
