Review of retail market:
In the past two weeks (eight trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by – 1.25% and – 2.60% respectively, and the retail trade (CITIC) index rose by – 0.37%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (67 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 11.77% and – 21.60% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 4.82%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
Over the past two weeks, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 0.37%, ranking ninth among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past two weeks, six of the 29 CITIC primary industries rose. The top three industries were coal, steel and food and beverage, with increases of 5.99%, 3.36% and 2.84% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 4.82%, ranking seventh among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, three of the 29 CITIC primary industries have risen. The top three industries are coal, real estate and banking, with an increase of 29.80%, 10.36% and 4.48% respectively.
In the past two weeks, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were supermarkets, department stores and 3C chains of household appliances, with an increase of 10.38%, 4.22% and 1.15% respectively. Since 2022, the top three sub industries in the retail sector are supermarkets, professional markets and department stores, with an increase of 4.25%, – 0.99% and – 3.95% respectively.
In the past two weeks, 53 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) rose, one was flat and 39 fell. In the past two weeks, the top three companies in terms of growth were Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) , Fujian Dongbai (Group) Co.Ltd(600693) and Nanjing Central Emporium (Group) Stocks Co.Ltd(600280) , with growth rates of 68.33%, 45.93% and 29.04% respectively. Since 2022, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 52 companies have increased, one company has remained unchanged and 40 companies have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Gome communications and Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) , with an increase of 93.87%, 74.08% and 48.83% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
Looking forward to the future, due to the impact of the epidemic, we expect that the growth rate of social consumption and the operation of Listed Companies in March 2022 may be unsatisfactory. However, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in the future, the optional products will gradually recover. In particular, some department store stocks with low price to book ratio will have certain flexibility. In view of the overall consumption capacity of first tier cities is better than that of second and third tier cities, we first promote the Department Store Leader of first tier cities. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the sales data of gold jewelry sector in March 2022 may perform poorly, but from the perspective of the whole year of 2022, gold jewelry is still a relatively optimistic sub sector. Suggestions for next week: Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) .
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
