Industry views and investment suggestions
This week, A-Shares continued to fluctuate downward, and the trend of social service industry was slightly stronger than the market. The trend of sub sectors of the industry was divided, and fine-grained industries such as hotels, duty-free and catering rebounded, while scenic spots and travel agencies fell.
The overall trend of China’s epidemic situation is improving, and the industry welcomes the good opportunity of layout. Since March, the number of confirmed cases in China has increased significantly. Recently, the number of infections is still high, but there are signs of improvement. On the one hand, on April 13, Jilin Province announced that it had achieved social clearance, and the number of daily infections has continued to decline recently. On the other hand, there was no obvious peak trend in the number of infections in Shanghai, but medical and material support continued to arrive. The “three districts” division policy was launched on April 12, and the first batch of super stores have also resumed operation, making the epidemic prevention policy more accurate and flexible. Over the past two years, the social service sector has experienced many ups and downs. Each peak of the epidemic data is a signal of the improvement of market sentiment. This time, China’s epidemic rebounded sharply, the decline of the sector is large, and it is expected to be more flexible in the recovery period. It is suggested to bargain hunting layout.
In the first quarter, the amount of duty-free shopping on Hainan outlying islands was 14.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%. According to the data of Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce, from January to February, the total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan were 12.873 billion yuan, with daily sales of 210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and the market continued to be hot. Due to the epidemic, a large number of duty-free flights in and out of Sanya were closed in early March, and a large number of duty-free flights left the island in early May. In April, Sanya duty-free city was closed for 9 days, and hailv duty-free city was closed for nearly half a month. The recent epidemic control has improved, and duty-free shops have resumed business, but sales are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term. In the medium and long term, the tax-free growth of outlying islands will not change.
Investment suggestion: continue to be optimistic about the development space of China’s tax-free industry and continue to recommend China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) . In addition, focus on recommending the leaders of fine molecule industry Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) ..
Plate Market
In the current period (April 11 to April 15), the leisure service industry index fell by 0.62%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.99% over the same period. The leisure service industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.37pct, ranking ninth among the 28 shenwanyi industries.
Risk tips: systemic risk, epidemic risk, policy promotion, lower than expected business conditions and other risks.
