Important changes in the industry this week
1. Price: the price of lithium carbonate decreased this week, and the prices in other links were relatively stable; 2. Terminal: China sold 455000 electric vehicles in March; 3. Event: Shanghai Automobile Co., Ltd. gradually resumed production. (see the text for details)
This week's core view
The epidemic has led to the neck of logistics and production, affecting the whole automobile industry chain. The main engine plants with production capacity in Shanghai mainly include Tesla, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM and SAIC passenger cars. Their production capacity in Shanghai reaches 800000 / 50 / 55 / 500000 vehicles respectively, accounting for 10.5% of the total production capacity in China. Affected by the epidemic, the sales volume of Tesla and Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) last week (April 4-10) of local car companies in Shanghai decreased by more than 90% on a weekly basis. During the closure and control of the epidemic in Shanghai, some enterprises closed-loop production (such as Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness Co.Ltd(605333) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Bosch, anbofu, etc.), but the closure and control in Shanghai cut off the logistics system of the whole industrial chain, and the raw materials and finished products could not be effectively transported. The automobile production of the whole industry was affected through the industrial chain. Last week, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles decreased by 45% compared with the first week of March.
Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) etc. began to prepare for resumption of work and production. China Securities Journal learned from Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) on April 15 that Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) has begun to prepare for resumption of work and production Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) requires that Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) submit the white list of enterprises applying for early resumption of work and production for subordinate enterprises before the full unsealing of Shanghai. Subordinate enterprises propose the resumption of work demand to suppliers in advance. On the premise of implementing relevant epidemic prevention responsibilities, strive to open up the cross provincial green channel as soon as possible. All production enterprises start the resumption of work and production pressure test on Monday, April 18, according to the scheduling situation.
Referring to Jilin Province, the automobile industry chain is the first batch of enterprises to resume production, and the recovery is fast. On April 11, Sun Jian, director of Jilin Provincial Department of industry and information technology, said that FAW had fully started to resume work today, and the first batch of 47 parts enterprises were returning to work in an orderly manner. On April 15, 160 sets of Hongqi brand were successfully offline in a single day, marking that all aspects of supply chain support, logistics access and quality control have been in place. Previously, on March 13, China's FAW decided to shut down all five vehicle factories in Changchun, including FAW Toyota and FAW Volkswagen.
Shanghai resumed work at a faster pace than expected, and the epidemic is gradually emerging at the end. Since mid March, affected by the epidemic and other factors, the share prices of some auto parts companies have fallen by more than 20%. Previously, the market expected that the impact of the epidemic on supply and demand would reach two months. The Shanghai auto industry began to gradually resume production in April, exceeding market expectations. Continue to stick to the main line of electric vehicles, "there is lithium, there is a car" is our core view of the terminal, "light total amount, heavy structure" is our core stock selection strategy. On the margin, it is suggested to focus on the targets with high production capacity and income in Shanghai: Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness Co.Ltd(605333) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Important industry events this week:
The Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) released the financial report of the first quarter of 2022 and Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) released the financial report of 2021.
Recommended combination of sub industries: see the text on the next page for details.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected.
