Talk every Monday: the relaxation of local policies and the implementation of comprehensive RRR reduction
This week, Suzhou, Nanjing, Lishui and Liuhe District, Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) made different relaxation of the “four limits” policy, and “implementing policies for cities” gradually transferred to high-energy cities; On April 15, the central bank announced the reduction of reserve requirement, and the financing environment was further improved; There is still room to release the “policy implementation due to the city”, and the signal of monetary policy easing has been further clarified.
The “four limits” policy of high-energy cities is loose, and there is still room for “implementing policies for cities”
This week, Suzhou, Nanjing, Lishui, Liuhe District and Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) new district respectively relaxed the regulation and control of the “four limits” policy in different ranges. Suzhou’s second-hand housing sales limit is adjusted from 5 years to 3 years. The registered residence of non registered household in urban areas, Kunshan and Taicang has been adjusted from 3 to 2 years of social security to 2 years of social security. Nanjing relaxed purchase restrictions in Lishui district and Liuhe District Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) new area reduces the conditions for talents from key supporting units to purchase houses from working in Lingang district for more than one year to 3 or 6 months;
Looking back on the policy path of “implementing policies according to the city”, it can be clearly observed that the policy space is gradually opening: (1) on February 17, the down payment ratio of commercial loans in Heze, Shandong Province decreased; (2) On March 1, Zhengzhou launched 19 policies, becoming the first provincial capital city to launch a series of official policies for the care of the real estate market; (3) On March 30, Fuzhou became the first strong provincial capital city to relax sales restrictions; (4) On April 11, Suzhou relaxed the sales and purchase restrictions, becoming the first strong second tier city to relax the “four restrictions”;
There is still room for further relaxation in the “implementation of policies due to the city”, which can be expected both in the scope of the city and the subsequent policy relaxation of the city that has been followed up; Among them, we can focus on the policy space of strong second tier cities.
The easing level was lower than that in previous cycles
On April 15, the central bank announced that it would cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points, and cut another 0.25 percentage points for urban commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and agricultural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%;
For the real estate industry, the RRR reduction will reduce the financing cost of real estate enterprises and reduce the liquidity risk at the company level; On the other hand, the loose capital environment is also conducive to the recovery of the scene of the commercial housing market;
In addition, we sorted out the cumulative range of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts in the previous cycles of 20082009, 20112012 and the first half of 20142016 and the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area in a single month. On the whole, there is a certain gap between the easing level of this round of monetary policy and the previous cycles;
Looking back on history, during the period of loose monetary policy, the sales of commercial housing market recovered and warmed up. During the loose monetary policy period, the market financing cost will decrease, which will accelerate the social and economic development, and then promote the recovery of consumption in the commercial housing market. Since the current round of the industry entered the downward cycle, the monetary environment has been less relaxed than the previous rounds of downward periods, which has objectively led to a slower recovery of fundamentals than in the past;
At the level of “implementing policies for cities”, the policy strength is strengthening and the scope is spreading to high-energy cities. In the future, we can further expect the policy of high-energy cities to be further relaxed; At the level of monetary policy, although the easing rate is lower than in the past, the policy direction has been further clarified, and more attention should be paid to the signals in the policy direction.
Data tracking (April 3-April 10):
New housing market: the transaction area of 30 cities is – 62pct and – 36pct in one week and cumulative year-on-year respectively, first tier cities – 70pct, – 32pct, second tier cities – 79pct, – 69pct, third tier cities – 23pct and + 12pct.
Second hand housing market: the transaction area of second-hand housing in 13 cities was – 49pct year-on-year in a single week and – 30pct year-on-year in total.
Land market: the cumulative construction area of land supply in 100 cities is + 8pct year-on-year, the cumulative construction area of transaction is – 12pct year-on-year, the cumulative transaction amount is – 50pct year-on-year, and the land transaction premium rate is 0.25%.
City market month on month: Beijing (- 47pct), Shanghai (- 75pct), Shenzhen (- 42pct), Nanjing (- 17pct), Hangzhou (- 40pct), Wuhan (- 56pct)
Investment strategy: it is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group with stable operation and good credit background. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Greentown China, etc. under the product-oriented logic. With the further confirmation at the bottom of the policy, attention can be paid to the repair opportunities of high-quality private enterprises, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , etc.
Risk tip: the sales market is down, and some real estate enterprises have a storm of debt default.
