This week (2022.4.112022.4.15), the building materials sector (SW) rose - 2.67%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.39%, and the excess return was - 4.06%. This week, the net capital inflow of the building materials sector (SW) was -3.873 billion yuan.
[Zhou viewpoint]
At present, the overall demand is still weak, and the policy space is expected to be further strengthened under the pressure of steady economic growth. It is expected that the power of infrastructure investment is still an important starting point. Previously, the national standing committee also continued to express the signal of steady growth. This week, the central bank announced that it would reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points from April 25, and the subsequent supporting policies for steady growth are expected to be intensively introduced. At the same time, in the case of great pressure shown by real estate data, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Quzhou and other places have relaxed policies on real estate purchase and loan restrictions since March. Under the expectation of stable real estate, the marginal relaxation of policies can still be expected. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of demand margin and the catalysis of macro policies, and recommend cement sector and consumer building materials sector.
1. Cement sector: the short-term epidemic affects the demand performance, and the expectation of wide credit and stable growth continues to increase, which is expected to benefit. In the short term, due to the impact of epidemic control on the recovery of demand, the cement price fluctuated, and the inventory pressure increased; In the medium term, the stable growth of credit is expected to rise, the issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated, and the rising momentum of infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from the market integration in Northeast and North China and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with great business elasticity.
2. Glass sector: the short-term price fluctuates and the inventory pressure increases. The subsequent demand and downstream orders still need to be observed. At present, the demand for glass has been affected by factors such as the real estate capital chain and the epidemic, and the recovery is slow, and the price has fallen. The subsequent price performance needs to be promoted by the factors of terminal demand or supply side. Medium and long-term environmental protection will reshape the industry cost curve. The increase in the fuel cost of the original coal-fired production line in the north from coal to gas is good for the price center of the southern market. Resources are the main source of long-term excess profits, and large enterprises and high-quality production capacity benefit. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (deep processing, electronics, medicine, photovoltaic glass and other industrial chain extension is quite bright, and the dividend rate is high), CSG a (photovoltaic glass is vigorously expanded, and electronic glass ushers in a breakthrough), and pay attention to Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
3. In terms of consumption of building materials, from the sales and land acquisition data of the top 100 real estate enterprises, the demand pressure on the short-term real estate side is still large. Some cities have begun to introduce policies to relax loan and purchase restrictions, and the policy margin has been relaxed, paying attention to the valuation and repair opportunities of the sector; From the perspective of fundamentals, it is expected that the pressure on the demand side will still be reflected in the first half of the year. On the profit side, the high price pressure on the upstream raw materials is still on, which still tests the profitability, but the price transmission and product structure adjustment are expected to hedge some of the impact; At the valuation level, most consumer building materials targets are already in the lower limit of the historical valuation range, and the valuation repair needs to continuously track the marginal changes of policies; It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the leaders of engineering building materials with growth, especially the companies that have established the small b customer development and multi category sales system of sinking market. Core recommendations Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; It is also recommended to pay attention to the subdivided leading enterprises with strong growth flexibility and whose valuation has been at the lower limit of the historical range, and recommend Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ; It is recommended that Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) .
[weekly data of subdivided industries]
1. Cement: the price of the national cement market fluctuated upward this week, with a month on month increase of 0.3%. The price rising areas mainly include Tianjin, Henan, Guangxi and Yunnan, with a range of 20-50 yuan / ton; The falling areas are Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei and Ningxia, with a range of 10-30 yuan / ton. In mid April, the demand of China's cement market was affected by the epidemic control, the overall performance was still poor, and the average shipment rate of enterprises fell by 25 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of price, as judged in the early stage, in the areas where staggered peak production has been implemented, the enterprises are under the pressure of rising costs, and the cement price is pushed up simultaneously; In the areas significantly affected by the epidemic, the market oversupply was serious, and the price fell slightly.
This week, the average price of cement market in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 568 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of + 8 yuan / ton and a year-on-year ratio of + 123 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 536 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis, with a year-on-year increase of + 8 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the Yangtze River Basin is 510 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of - 4 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 4 yuan / ton; The average price of cement market in Guangdong and Guangxi is 500 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of + 15 yuan / ton and a year-on-year ratio of - 30 yuan / ton.
The cement inventory in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 57.2%, with a week on week ratio of + 0.6%; Cement inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 75%, with a week on week ratio of + 3.1%; The inventory in the Yangtze River Basin was 73.8%, with a week on week ratio of + 2%; The inventory of Guangdong and Guangdong regions was 71.5%, with a week-on-week ratio of - 2.5%.
2. Glass: the average price of float glass in China this week was 204648 yuan / ton, slightly up 0.72 yuan / ton or 0.62% from the average price last week (204576 yuan / ton). This week, China's float glass market adjusted sporadically, with general trading and regional differences. Recently, shipments in some regions have been limited, and prices in some regions have increased slightly due to favorable conditions. On the whole, the high inventory of the float factory still creates pressure, the mainstream transaction is still flexible, the transaction in some areas is limited, and the power of short-term price adjustment is still weak. Continue to pay attention to the future logistics and transaction changes. The original film inventory of sample enterprises in 13 provinces across the country was 59.58 million boxes, with a week-on-week increase of + 2.45 million boxes and a year-on-year increase of + 33.66 million boxes.
3. Glass fiber: Taishan Glass Fiber Co., Ltd. mainly produces alkali free roving of various specifications. At present, 17 tank kiln production lines are in production, with an annual production capacity of 1065000 tons. Recently, the market demand is weak. Recently, the manufacturer's overall shipment is general, and the transportation in most regions is still limited. The quotation of glass fiber yarn of each product is temporarily stable. The manufacturer's external ex factory prices in the northern market are as follows: 2400tex jet yarn at 9800 yuan / ton, 2400texsmc yarn at 8600 yuan / ton, 2400tex winding yarn at 64006500 yuan / ton, thermoplastic direct yarn at 71007200 yuan / ton, 2400tex felt yarn / sheet yarn at 9000 yuan / ton. Electronic yarn: Taishan glass fiber Zoucheng Co., Ltd. mainly produces tank kiln electronic yarn. There are two electronic level tank kiln lines in normal production, with an annual output of about 110000 tons. The main products are G75, G37, G150, e225, D450 and other models. G37 is basically used by itself. Recently, the manufacturer's electronic yarn G75 quotation has been temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream quotation is 85009000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of class a products, including tax, is slightly different from that of different customers. The actual transaction is according to the contract, but at present, the manufacturer has few sources of goods for export and has a large amount of self consumption. Wooden pallet packaging and plastic pipe recycling, with a time limit of 3 months. The main delivery areas are Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang. At present, the production and sales of China's electronic cloth (7628 cloth) are generally in the market. At present, the quotation is about 3.4 yuan / meter, and the actual transaction is according to the contract.
Risk tip: repeated macro policies and sharp depreciation of exchange rate.
