Zhou’s view: reducing the reserve requirement is good for securities companies, and the new regulations on life insurance sales are better than expected
After the end of the policy on March 15, the brokerage sector has been in the loose logic of trading policy, with China stock market news and Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) rising significantly ahead. At present, the valuation of leading targets of securities companies is still low. The landing of RRR reduction will boost confidence in steady growth, and the overweight of subsequent steady growth policies is expected to continue to benefit securities companies. The new regulations on life insurance sales are more relaxed than the first version, which is better than expected.
Securities companies: lowering the reserve requirement is good for securities companies, focusing on the track of big wealth management and undervalued securities companies with outstanding comprehensive advantages
(1) the people’s Bank of China decided to comprehensively reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25. For urban commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and agricultural commercial banks with deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, an additional 0.25 percentage point will be reduced, releasing a total of about 530 billion long-term funds. RRR reduction is conducive to boosting confidence in steady growth, and loose liquidity is good for securities companies.
(2) looking forward to the first quarter report of securities companies, the equity investment income suppresses the industry performance, while the revenue growth of wealth management and public fund-raising management business lines in the first quarter may reach 20% due to the year-on-year growth of retention scale. At the same time, the customer demand capital business represented by neutral strategies such as derivatives is expected to maintain growth year-on-year. Overall, the profits of big wealth line leaders and head securities companies with strong comprehensive advantages are expected to be better than the industry average. (3) After the end of the policy on March 15, the securities business sector has reflected excess returns. At present, the valuation of the sector is still at a low level. The overweight of the follow-up stable growth policy is expected to continue to benefit the undervalued securities trademarks. The first line of wealth management is the undervalued objects, and the revaluation space is still large. China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares) are recommended.
Insurance: solicit opinions on the new regulations on life insurance sales, and the policy standard is better than expected
(1) on April 15, the Securities Times reported that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the measures for the management of life insurance sales (Draft for comments) to all insurance enterprises. According to the information reported by the media, the draft for comments has been greatly adjusted compared with the draft at the beginning of November 2021, and the margin is significantly better than expected. Compared with the first edition, the draft has deleted “the initial handling fee shall not be higher than 80% of the initial premium” and “the initial Commission shall not be higher than 40% of the direct commission of the insurance policy”. The draft stipulates that “the proportion of commission in the total premium is limited by the additional fee rate when pricing the products sold” is basically consistent with the current principle; The classification of salespeople and the marginal of product classification are relaxed, and the sales types of new products are not clearly limited. Some provisions are consistent with the first edition, including the prohibition of compulsory matching sales of health and elderly care services with life insurance products, and the prohibition of self insurance parts and mutual insurance parts from participating in performance assessment. We believe that this adjustment is more practical and has limited impact on insurance sales in the short term; In the long run, product classification and personnel classification will effectively reduce the misleading sales on the liability side. Sales based on customer needs and payment ability are expected to guide the industry to return to the source of guarantee and benefit the long-term and healthy development of the industry. (2) According to the premium data, the new life insurance policies continued to be under pressure in the first quarter. The auto insurance premium of PICC Property Insurance in March was + 4.6% year-on-year. It is expected that the local epidemic will bring some suppression to the sales of new cars. Throughout the year, the recovery of the prosperity of property insurance is still worthy of attention, and the subject of benefit is China property insurance; At present, life insurance is at the bottom of valuation, and the pessimistic expectations on the liability side and asset side have responded fully. However, the impact of the epidemic, the macroeconomic prosperity and the growth rate of NBV in the process of transformation are still uncertain. Recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which has a large space for asset side repair, recommend China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , which is leading in transformation, and benefit the target China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) .
Combination of beneficial objects
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares);
Insurance: China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) ;
Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
