The central bank lowered the reserve requirement by 25bp, released 530 billion funds, and relaxed the purchase restriction of Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) Nanjing Liuhe. On April 15, the central bank announced that it decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio). For urban commercial banks without inter provincial operation and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, on the basis of reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, an additional 0.25 percentage points will be reduced to increase support for small and micro enterprises and “agriculture, rural areas and farmers”. The total amount of long-term funds released this time is about 530 billion yuan. According to historical data, after many times of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, combined with the relaxation of real estate policies, it usually ushers in the recovery of commercial housing sales data. This week, the “four restrictions” policy was relaxed in more cities. It is worth noting that the purchase restrictions in some suburbs of Nanjing and Shanghai were relaxed. In addition, the loan and sales restrictions in Yichang were relaxed, and the proportion of down payment decreased.
Market review: the increase ranks in the middle and rear of various industries, 1.92 percentage points behind the market. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was – 2.9%, 1.92 percentage points behind the market, ranking 16th among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 19 stocks rose this week, 49 less than last week, and 121 fell. (unless otherwise specified, this week in the report refers to the week of 4.9-4.15).
Transaction of new houses: the transaction area of new houses in 32 cities this week was 2.146 million square meters, an increase of 15.2% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 61.3%. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in the sample first tier cities was 293000 square meters, 22.4% month on month and – 65.1% year-on-year; The sample of second tier cities was 1.384 million m3, with a month on month ratio of 15.7% and a year-on-year ratio of – 57.8%; The sample third tier cities were 468000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 10.0% and a year-on-year ratio of – 67.2%.
Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 1.148 million square meters, an increase of 43.2% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 37.6%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 362000 square meters, 43.2% month on month; The sample of second tier cities is 639000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 46.8%; The third tier cities in the sample are 147000 square meters, 29.3% month on month. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 13.927 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of – 37.3%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 4.212 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 41.2%; The sample of second tier cities was 7.894 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 33.4%; The third tier cities in the sample were 1.821 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 33.4%.
Domestic credit bonds of key companies: according to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, 9 credit bonds of real estate enterprises were issued this week (4.11-4.17), up 7 month on month; The total issuance scale is 6.9 billion yuan, the total repayment amount is 7.686 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is -786 million yuan. The bond interest rates of Suzhou hi tech (- 17bp), changgaoxin (- 16bp), Guangming real estate (- 44bp) and Beijing Beijing Electronic Zone High-Tech Group Co.Ltd(600658) (- 61bp) are lower than those of comparable bonds of the same type and period previously issued by the company.
Investment suggestions: local policies continue to relax, and more cities are expected to follow up in the future to maintain the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. We believe that this year is a large-scale policy easing cycle, which is a beta market. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to: A shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang. Property management: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane, green city service, poly property, Yongsheng life service, Jinke service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Risk tip: the speed of policy introduction and implementation are lower than expected, and the fundamentals continue to decline, causing a chain reaction. The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
