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Consumer service weekly: the epidemic spread index in Shanghai has decreased, and the recovery market is expected to continue

The guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation in the resumption of work and production of industrial enterprises in Shanghai (First Edition) was released, and Shanghai’s economy ushered in a period of recovery

On April 16, the Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises returning to work and production in Shanghai (First Edition). The guidelines specify that district governments, Street towns and parks should actively support enterprises to resume work and production, guide enterprises to “one enterprise, one policy” and effectively do a good job in epidemic prevention and control. The release of the “guidelines” aims to effectively, orderly and effectively promote the resumption of industrial enterprises and ensure the normal operation of Shanghai’s industrial chain on the premise of ensuring that the epidemic risk is controllable, which is conducive to the stability of Shanghai’s economy during the critical period of the epidemic and the rapid recovery after the end of the epidemic.

The epidemic transmission index in Shanghai has decreased, and the number of medium and high-risk areas in China has decreased. Phased results have been achieved in tackling the epidemic

On April 16, sun Chunlan, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, said that phased results had been achieved in the fight against the epidemic in Shanghai, and the epidemic transmission index in Shanghai had dropped from 2.27 to 1.23 now; On the same day, the number of medium and high-risk areas was 191, a decrease of 70% compared with two weeks ago, with an average reduction of 30 medium and high-risk areas per day. 1. The production and living order in Shanghai is expected to be restored. As one of the hub cities, the recovery of Shanghai’s transportation capacity will enhance the convenience of personnel flow among provinces across the country, and the tourism, hotel and catering industry is also expected to usher in the dawn. 2. At present, the biggest problem facing the tourism industry is the “fuse” of inter provincial tourism business in most provinces of the country. With the gradual reduction of medium and high-risk areas in the country, the number of provinces that can pass through each other will gradually increase, the travel enthusiasm of provincial residents restrained in this round of epidemic will be released, and the tourism and hotel industry of the whole country will usher in a rapid recovery.

Jilin has achieved social clearance, and Xi’an has implemented temporary control measures

According to the news of the press conference on epidemic prevention and control in Jilin Province, through the comprehensive study and judgment of the latest round of nucleic acid test results in Changchun, it is determined that Changchun will achieve the goal of social clearance on April 13; Xi’an epidemic prevention and control headquarters decided to implement temporary control measures from 0:00 on April 16 to 24:00 on April 19 to further reduce personnel mobility and prevent cross infection on the premise of not affecting the normal production and living order of the society.

Investment advice

Phased achievements have been made in tackling the epidemic, cross-border tourism in all provinces is expected to resume, and the social service industry will usher in a recovery period. We suggest paying attention to four main lines of recovery logic: 1) Recommend Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group, which are at the bottom of the cycle / with stable long-term growth logic; 2). Recommend Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , targets of high-quality scenic spots benefiting from the increased penetration of leisure tourism and peripheral tourism, and pay attention to China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) , Fosun tourism culture opened up by Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) tourism business and Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) , which benefit from the increased attention of ice and snow tourism; 3). Recommend Helen’s and jiumaojiu, which are expected to be repaired in the same store after the epidemic, have strong growth fundamentals, and are incubating new brands & new business forms. It is suggested to pay attention to Haidilao, Xiabu and Xiabu, the leading restaurant; 4). It is recommended to recommend the tax-free sector benefiting from consumption return and consumption upgrading and the human services sector with obvious anti cyclical attribute. It is recommended to recommend China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) .

Risk tips

Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Repeated outbreaks exceed the expected risk; The risk of intensified industry competition; The landing of new projects / products is less than the expected risk; Food safety risks; Risk of major teaching accidents.

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