Breeding sector: 1) live pigs: the ratio of pig to grain continues to be low, the slight recovery of pig prices does not change the current situation of deep losses, and the trend of capacity removal in the industry is still determined. On April 10, 2022, the price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.5 yuan / kg, with a weekly increase of 2.46% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.41%; By February 2022, China had 42.68 million fertile sows in stock, with a month on month decrease of 0.5%, and the production capacity continued to be reduced. As of April 8, 2022, the profit loss of outsourcing piglet breeding is 314.03 yuan / head, and the loss of self breeding is 531.70 yuan / head. As of April 15, the price of binary sows was 32.69 yuan / kg, which was basically the same month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 58.22%. As of April 8, the price of piglets in 22 provinces and cities fell to 24.25 yuan / kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 74.52%. Affected by the recent covid-19 epidemic and intensive collection and storage, pig prices rose slightly, but the impact of food prices on feed costs lags behind, and the pig food ratio is still at the warning level of 5:1. Under the influence of transportation obstruction and passive fence pressing, the slaughter volume of pigs may fluctuate in April. The short-term supply and demand pattern of pig price forms a certain support for pig price, but the oversupply state of the industry has not changed. It is difficult to judge the short-term trend of pig price, but it is still under the pressure of slaughter in the medium term. At the same time, affected by cost fluctuations, the deep losses of the industry continue, and some regions are optimistic that the market piglet price will pick up in the second half of the year, The price of binary sows is still running at a low level, which reflects limited confidence in the market in the second half of next year. On the whole, the willingness of the industry to make up the hurdles is still weak, and the trend of multiplication and elimination remains unchanged. We continue to be optimistic about the layout opportunities on the left. Considering multiple factors such as the flexibility and certainty of hurdles, capital status and the space for full cost reduction, the live pig sector is mainly recommended: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , and it is suggested to pay attention to: Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) 。 2) Poultry: the price of white chicken continues to rise, while the price of yellow chicken has increased
Fall back. Affected by factors such as rising transportation costs, the prices of wool chicken and chicken seedlings were boosted. Covid-19 epidemic inhibited the consumption of catering and medium and high-end poultry in families, and the yellow chicken fell somewhat month on month. As of April 15, the average price of fast big chicken, medium speed chicken, native chicken and black bone chicken was 6.07/6.69/7.72/8.45 yuan / 500g, with a change of – 4.41% / – 2.19% / – 3.62% / – 4.20% week on week, and a year-on-year change of – 0.82% / – 9.35% / – 2.89% / + 12.07%. The supply of yellow chicken industry is tight. It is expected that the boom will continue in the medium term. We will wait for the demand to warm up after the loose control of covid-19 epidemic. We are optimistic about the industry leader with good cost control ability and growth. Key recommendations: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , suggestions: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) . 3) Beef cattle breeding: in September 2020, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the high-quality development of animal husbandry, which put forward the goal of “maintaining the annual self-sufficiency rate of beef and mutton at about 85%. There is a large gap between supply and demand in the industry. Pay attention to the opportunities of large-scale beef cattle breeding. It is suggested to pay attention to: Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) .
Animal protection sector: the deadline for the new version of GMP is approaching, and the leader of R & D + production + market advantage will benefit. 1) In the field of veterinary biological products, under the background of the effective promotion of the “fight first and then supplement” policy and the gradual elimination of the policy of political seedling collection in 2025, veterinary biological products will usher in market-oriented development; 2) Veterinary chemical drugs: since July 2020, the feed has been completely “banned”, the demand for therapeutic veterinary chemical drugs has ushered in rapid growth, and the development opportunities of new veterinary drugs are considerable; The new version of GMP standard was released on April 21, 2020 and will be implemented from June 1, 2020. As of May 31, 2022, the new standard has not been reached, the backward industry production capacity has not been eliminated, the industry access threshold has been raised, and the competition pattern is expected to be optimized rapidly. It is expected to focus on the leading capacity and high-end market of R & D Institutes: .
Seed industry sector: the importance of food security continues to increase, and attention is paid to the long-term layout opportunities of seed industry. The issue of Document No. 1 in 2022 and the government work report of the two sessions on March 5 once again emphasize the theme of food security and seed industry revitalization, and seed industry security is the basis of food security. In recent years, the industry has actively guided the continuous introduction of policies to encourage R & D innovation and standardized development of the industry: the action plan for the revitalization of seed industry was adopted in July 2021; In November 2021, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the decision of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas on amending some seed industry regulations (Draft for comments), adding relevant rules on the approval of genetically modified crop varieties, and the commercialization can be expected; The revision of the seed law was completed in 2021 and officially implemented on March 1, 2022. The threshold of corn and other varieties approval standards was raised, and the trend of industrial intellectual property protection and leading concentration is expected to appear. We are optimistic about the industry leaders with variety advantages and R & D advantages. We suggest to pay attention to: Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) .
Risk tips: sudden epidemics or natural disasters, repeated covid-19 epidemics, and the implementation progress of industrial policies is less than expected.
