Domestic household sector:
The valuation of the home furnishing sector is at the bottom of history. With the marginal improvement of real estate policy, there is room for recovery. Since the beginning of the year, some third, fourth and second tier cities have gradually relaxed their real estate regulation policies. Due to the gradual promotion of urban implementation policies, the regulation intensity has gradually increased, and the real estate policies have continued to exceed expectations. At present, the valuation of the home sector is at the historical bottom range. We believe that the reasonable PE range of the home subject is 20-30x. The real estate is expected to be repaired upward, the real estate chain will continue to benefit, and the valuation has room for recovery.
Home furnishing is the most potential track in the post cycle subdivision of real estate, and the share of leading cities still has great room for improvement. According to our calculation, in 2020, the market share of retail European style kitchen cabinets and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) wardrobe was only 6% and 5%. In 2020, the market share of gujia and Minhua domestic sofa was 5% and 6% respectively, and the market share of Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) and mousse domestic mattress was 4% and 7% respectively. Firmly optimistic about the leader, gradually build channels and product barriers, lead the integration of industry resources and improve the market share. We believe that the current leading enterprises have entered the stage of giving full play to their scale advantages and crowding out local brands: ① channel side: the investment of leading resources is sufficient, the layout of all channels, fine management and dealer empowerment are far better than their peers. Household products focus on offline experience, and the high-quality stores in Ka stores have become scarce resources. We believe that under the background of the decline in the natural passenger flow of household properties, the increase in the number / area of stores in the properties of leading enterprises, the continuous empowerment of dealers and the increase in marketing expenses are conducive to the continuous increase of leading traffic and the accelerated increase of share; ② Product side: the industry is moving from single product competition to multi category and integrated competition, and the advantages of supply chain and large-scale centralized procurement of leading enterprises are gradually highlighted. The head enterprises have successively launched promotional packages including customization, software, home appliances and other diversified categories. The strong combination of home appliance brands not only meets the needs of consumers for brands under the trend of consumption upgrading, but also reflects the advantages of large-scale centralized purchase of head enterprises and the ability to integrate the supply chain.
At present, it is the home sector valuation and performance double bottom, and continues to be optimistic about the home leader dominated by “domestic demand + 2C”! According to the recent grassroots research feedback of the industrial chain and the recent grassroots research feedback of the industrial chain, the order receiving of Q1 household enterprises is still stable. Home leading supply chain has strong advantages, product integration ability is prominent, and the unit price of end customers has increased significantly. Recommend [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ], software sector [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ].
Home export sector:
After the epidemic, the demand as a whole or tends to be stable, and there is structural differentiation in sub categories. The export sector is still under pressure in the short term due to the impact of shipping, raw materials and exchange rate. It is optimistic that the supply side concentration will be improved and the leading competitive advantage will be further strengthened in the long term. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern: (1) supply side: in the first half of the year, the income of listed export enterprises increased significantly and the profit was under pressure. In the second half of the year, they were still limited by the shortage of shipping capacity, the pressure of raw materials and the pressure of RMB appreciation. The growth rate of subdivided industries in the export sector gradually decreased. Under the long-term high pressure of the industry, it is not ruled out that some small and medium-sized production capacity may be cleared, and the industry concentration may be further improved; (2) Demand side: the global epidemic broke out in 20 years, and the demand for overseas durable consumer goods continued to increase. Since the second half of 21 years, with the improvement of the epidemic and other effects, overseas production capacity has gradually recovered, and the demand may tend to grow steadily. In the long run, (1) industry level: China has a stable position in the global supply chain and complete supporting facilities for relevant industries, (2) company level: Home export leaders have strong anti risk ability, take the lead in the layout of overseas production capacity, have strong stability of production and supply, and further strengthen the competitive advantage in overseas markets. It is suggested to pay attention to the household leaders [Minhua holdings], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], the sub track leaders [ Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) ], and the [ Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) ] [ Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) ], [ Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) ], [ Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) ].
Aluminum plastic film sector:
On the whole, the aluminum-plastic film industry is in short supply. At present, the core driving force of the demand for aluminum-plastic film is the rapid growth of soft pack battery shipments, and the future increment may come from two wheeled electric vehicles, energy storage batteries, solid-state batteries and other fields. According to the data of evtank and Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) prospectus, the proportion of global soft pack battery shipments increased from 23.93% in 2012 to 55.83% in 2020, and the shipments in 2020 were 107.7gwh, yoy + 28.1%; From the perspective of competition pattern, the global aluminum-plastic film is mainly monopolized by Japanese enterprises, of which greater Japan printing (DNP) occupies 50% of the global market share and Showa electric occupies 20% of the market share. At present, China’s aluminum plastic film technology has made progress, product performance and reliability have been improved, and the supply system has been gradually improved, forming a virtuous cycle feedback from upstream and downstream, which is on the eve of domestic substitution. [ Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) ] is recommended. The core logic is domestic substitution. The essential reason is technological progress and the gradual improvement of upstream and downstream supply system. The average price in 21 years is 16.4 yuan / Ping, with an increase of 0.9 yuan / Ping; Among them, the income of 21h2 aluminum plastic film was 197 million yuan, an increase of 18.0% month on month; The sales volume was 117119 million square meters, an increase of 12.0% month on month; The average price was 16.9 yuan / square, an increase of 0.9 yuan / square month on month; The net interest rate of aluminum plastic film business was 18.9%, with a month on month increase of 1.6pcts. At the beginning of the 21st century, Zijiang new materials entered the supply chain of Byd Company Limited(002594) DMI blade batteries and opened the application of Chinese soft pack lithium battery materials in square lithium batteries. 21h2 introduced ATL and Byd Company Limited(002594) as strategic investors of Zijiang new materials. At present, the company’s design capacity of aluminum-plastic film is 36.6 million square meters / year, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.9% in 21 years. It has established stable cooperative relations with well-known manufacturers such as ATL, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) and continued to recommend.
New tobacco sector:
On April 15, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued five detailed rules on the management of e-cigarette products traceability, the implementation rules of e-cigarette products technical review, the guidance on the layout of e-cigarette wholesale enterprises, the guidance on the issuance of tobacco monopoly production enterprise licenses to e-cigarette related production enterprises, and the guidance on the layout and license management of e-cigarette retail outlets, further refining the supervision of e-cigarettes. We believe that: (1) from the perspective of supervision, the overall supervision of e-cigarettes is basically consistent with that of cigarettes. All links need permission and approval, and adopt unified centralized purchase platform sales; (2) The existing competition pattern of e-cigarettes will be broken, and e-cigarettes will enter the monopoly era. On the product side, the coincidence rules and quality are beneficial to manufacturers with high production standards, high-tech reserves and high capital reserves; The national, provincial and municipal representatives of e-cigarettes on the channel side will face a reshuffle.
Forestry carbon sequestration:
China is expected to become the world’s largest carbon trading market, and forestry carbon sequestration is the “gold” in CCER project.
The global carbon market covers 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, 54% of global GDP and nearly one third of the population. It is estimated that the total quota of the global carbon market will exceed 7.5 billion tons in 2021; In 2019, China’s carbon dioxide emissions will account for 28.8% of the world, and it is expected to become the world’s largest carbon trading market! As a “negative carbon” approach in the process of “carbon neutralization”, forestry carbon sequestration has the characteristics of large carbon sequestration, low cost and high ecological added value. It is the “gold” in CCER project. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) ].
Paper sector:
The cost side drive superimposed the replenishment of inventory after the holiday, and the price of paper enterprises rose moderately in March. Recently, affected by the closure of UPM factory and the shortage of logistics in Canada, the supply of raw materials of pulp and paper industry continued to be tight, and the prices of coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp continued to rise. Downstream Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) , app, Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Huatai Paper, Jianghe paper, Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) and many other paper mills issued price increase letters in March, raising the price by about 300 yuan / ton. In terms of waste paper, in April 2022, the shutdown letters of Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) were released again. Among them, four paper machines in Chongqing Jiulong were shut down for 12-16 days from April 8 to April 27; Fujian Shanying’s Pm32 will be shut down for 10 days from April 1 to April 10; In addition, Shanying paper announced on March 25 that all paper types produced by various bases will be raised by 100 yuan / ton again on April 7. Dongguan Nine Dragons will increase corrugated paper, whiteboard and other paper types by 50-150 yuan / ton from April 7. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ], [ Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) ], [ Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) ], [ Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) ].
Risk warning: real estate sales and completion are not as expected; Upward risk of raw material price; Industry competition intensifies; The risk of Sino US trade friction.
