Key investment points
[Key words of this week]: Shanghai will vigorously and orderly promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises, and the demand is expected to be repaired; In March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year; Pilbara expects to auction lithium concentrate again in the last week of April; The total output of REO in Lynas in the first quarter increased by 17% month on month; Flood disaster broke out in South Africa, and the import of cobalt intermediate products was not smooth
Market review: the game between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain has intensified significantly, and the increase of commodities has slowed down: 1) the procurement of lithium and downstream material plants has slowed down, the output of the supply side has gradually increased, and the lithium price has weakened. This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate in China fell by 5.7%, and the price of lithium concentrate rose by 4.9%; 2) Rare earth: downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory, and the purchase demand weakened. The quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China fell by 9.4% to 820000 yuan / ton; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotation of dysprosium oxide decreased by 5.8%, and the quotation of terbium oxide decreased by 3.1%; 3) The quotations of cobalt, MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.8% and 1.0% month on month respectively; 4) Nickel: under the short-term capital game, nickel price fluctuation increased, and LME nickel decreased by 0.67% month on month. 5) Stock market: the overall performance of the nonferrous metal index this week was relatively weak. The Shenwan nonferrous metal index fell by 2.94%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.94%. In terms of specific segments, the lithium sector fell by 7.1%, and the rare earth permanent magnet sector fell by 7.27%.
New energy vehicle industry chain: Shanghai plans to promote the resumption of work and production, and the demand side is expected to be repaired. 1) Since March, due to the epidemic, Weilai’s supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have continued to stop production. On April 16, the Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of resumption of work and production. The Ministry of industry and information technology set up a “white list” of key enterprises to ensure operation and transfer. The first batch of resumption of work and production includes 666 key enterprises such as automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, integrated circuit, operation support and economic support; New energy chains will be gradually repaired across the country or across multiple regions; 2) According to the data of China Automobile Association, in March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 465 / 484000 respectively, with an average year-on-year increase of 1.1 times, the growth rate increased by 25.4% and 43.9% respectively, and the market penetration of new energy vehicles reached 21.7%.
Lithium: lithium carbonate prices weakened. 1) On the price side, the game between upstream and downstream enterprises intensified. This week, China’s battery grade lithium carbonate decreased by 7.2% to 480400 yuan / ton, the quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide increased by 3% to 50.9 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium concentrate increased by 4.9%. It is expected that the price of lithium concentrate will accelerate. 2) On the inventory side, the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.45% month on month from 4920 to 4942 tons; Lithium hydroxide inventory increased by 26.40% month on month from 118 to 1489 tons. 3) Overseas lithium resources: mtcatlin produced 48700 tons of lithium concentrate in the first quarter, shipped 66000 tons, and sold at an average price of US $2178 / ton. It is expected to sell 50000 tons in Q2, with a price of US $5000 / ton; Olarz Salt Lake Q1 produces 2972 tons of LCE, with an average selling price of US $27236 / ton, and the selling price of Q2 is expected to reach US $35000 / ton; Pilbara expects another lithium concentrate auction in the last week of April.
Rare earth permanent magnet: the industry pattern is reshaped, and the price is expected to stop falling and stabilize. 1) On the spot side, magnetic material enterprises further reduced inventories, and the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China fell 9.4% to 820000 yuan / ton; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotation of dysprosium oxide decreased by 5.8% and terbium oxide decreased by 3.1%. With the resumption of work and production in the downstream, the price is expected to stop falling and stabilize next week. 2) On the supply side, Myanmar is still closed, and the consumption inventory of medium and heavy rare earths is dominated. The operating rate of praseodymium and neodymium oxide enterprises has not changed significantly, and the weekly output is basically the same. 3) On the demand side, the output of Nd-Fe-B in March was 19810 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.20% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.30%; 4) On the inventory side, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased from 3550 to 3650 tons, up 3.40% month on month. 5) Overseas resources: Lynas announced the production in the first quarter of 22 years. The total REO output of Q1 company was 4945 tons, up 17% month on month and 11% year on year; The total output of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 1687 tons, up 8% month on month and 24% year-on-year.
Cobalt: both supply and demand are weak, and the price continues to rise. This week, the quotation of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.8% and 1.0% month on month respectively. Affected by the high price, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream market of electrolytic cobalt. The high fluctuation of nickel price also has an impact on the demand for ternary materials, and the downstream is dominated by rigid demand procurement; On the supply side, the transportation in South Africa was blocked by the flood, the epidemic in Shanghai further exacerbated the shortage of intermediate goods supply, and the cobalt inventory remained at a very low level, showing a weak situation of both supply and demand.
Nickel: in the short term, under the capital game, the nickel price fluctuates greatly; In the long run, nickel prices return to fundamentals. Affected by the epidemic, the spot consumption of nickel is blocked, and the market transaction may stagnate in the short term. LME nickel closed at US $33200 / ton this week, down 0.67% month on month.
Copper foil: affected by downstream demand this week, the processing fee of 8 micron lithium battery copper foil was reduced by about 500 yuan.
Investment suggestion: maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry. The upstream raw materials of new energy, such as rare earth magnetic materials, lithium cobalt copper foil and aluminum foil, have a weak supply and demand situation in a short time due to epidemic, logistics and other factors. Shanghai plans to orderly promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises, and the landscape of the industrial chain may be gradually repaired. The general direction of the medium and long-term three-year boom upward cycle will not change, and the direction of the industrial boom is the most clear. The core standard of the core standard is the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: 002 ” ;, Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , etc.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation, industrial policy change risk, epidemic aggravation risk, new energy vehicle sales less than expected risk, and the premise assumption of supply and demand calculation less than expected risk.
