We believe that the market increment of the security industry still exists and will accelerate to the head. On the basis of the increasingly stable main industry, the head manufacturers have successfully opened the aiot market in the form of innovative subsidiaries, thus obtaining the second growth curve.
(1) the trend of intelligent video security, customer diffusion and industry concentration is the main line of development.
The security industry market is intelligent and there is still room for increment in developing countries. According to CCID Consulting and prospective industry research institute, the market scale of the security industry will stabilize in 2023 due to the decline of the epidemic, the expansion of demand in developing regions and the trend of security intelligence, and usher in an inflection point in 2023. It is expected that the global security market will reach US $303.3 billion in 2025.
The security industry has gradually expanded in depth and breadth, and gradually introduced long tail customers and more diverse scenarios.
We believe that the security industry will continue to move closer to the industry leader, and the concentration will gradually increase. The barrier of the security industry lies in the cost barrier caused by the difficulty of large-scale production. According to a & S, in the global market scale of the security industry in 2020, the top two Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) together account for about 44.4%. Because China has the advantage of supply chain, we think the market will be further concentrated in the future.
(2) the development of smart home and machine vision market in aiot is beneficial to Internet of things manufacturers with AI background such as fluorite network and Haikang Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and so on.
Home has entered the era of smart space. According to the prospectus of fluorite network, the global market scale will reach US $47.119 billion in 2024. It is expected that the global market scale of home security products is expected to reach more than US $10 billion by 2024.
With Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) the advantages of industrial chain and technological innovation, fluorite network is at the head of the smart home and Internet of things cloud platform industry. According to the statistics of iResearch consulting, in 2020, the shipments of fluorite network smart home cameras accounted for about 14.39% of the global market share; The number of access devices of fluorite IOT cloud platform accounts for about 9% of similar IOT cloud platforms in China, and the number of video devices accounts for more than 30% of similar IOT cloud platforms in China.
We believe that the domestic brands represented by Haikang Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) are expected to gradually become high-end and replace foreign brands in the future. In terms of policy support, in recent years, the government has continuously issued various policies to support the intellectualization of manufacturing industry, providing a more friendly policy environment for the machine vision industry; In terms of market share, the market share of domestic brands has increased from 45% in 2017 to 55% in 2021. We believe that with the continuous progress of technology, the process of domestic substitution is expected to continue.
Investment strategy:
We are optimistic about Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) ( Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) . SZ), which takes video security as the root, vigorously develops aiot business and successfully incubates two enterprises to be listed, and suggest paying attention to Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) ( Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) . SZ), which focuses on the largest equity incentive since listing (covering 1 / 4 employees), pays attention to income and profits and introduces strategic investors.
Market review:
The performance of the computer industry decreased slightly last week, by 5.23%.
The top ten gainers in the computer sector are mainly information innovation, cloud services and intelligent manufacturing.
Risk tips: International turbulence and foreign interest rate increase risk, market sentiment risk, risk of policy implementation falling short of expectations, risk of repeated epidemic, technology implementation falling short of expectations, actual hardware construction falling short of expectations, downstream demand risk, insufficient supply of chips and other components, other risks, etc.
