Investment suggestion: the profitability of coal enterprises is strong, and the strong performance of the sector continues. With the advent of the off-season, the impact of policies and epidemic situation is superimposed, the demand rhythm is disrupted, and the coal price is seasonally adjusted. However, this does not change the current situation of tight coal supply and demand and the high outlook of the industry. Coal enterprises have successively published annual reports and forecasts of the first quarter report. The performance growth rate is generally fast, and most of them exceed the expected performance; Leading companies paid a high proportion of dividends, boosted market sentiment and continued to be optimistic about the future market. It is suggested to focus on the target: power coal company Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Coking coal company Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) .
Core logic: driven by the production capacity cycle, the high outlook of the coal industry continues. The supply side reform launched in 2016 resolved excess capacity, exceeded the target, and the supply capacity decreased more than expected. The national development and Reform Commission calls for accelerating the development and expansion of new driving forces, cultivating and developing high-quality and advanced production capacity, but it is far from being thirsty. Judging from the construction period of 3-5 years, the overall scale of coal production capacity that can be truly released in the future is relatively limited. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, with the growth of the national economy, the energy demand of the whole society is expected to maintain a growth trend, the bottom-up guarantee role of coal in the energy system may be more prominent, the absolute consumption of coal will increase steadily, and the coal industry is still in a high boom development stage.
Points beyond expectations: 1) difficulty in increasing production and ensuring supply exceeds expectations: the space for capacity re combing and re mining in 2022 is limited, and it is difficult to increase another 300 million tons of capacity. On March 18, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on establishing a special class to promote the work related to increasing coal production and ensuring supply, indicating that the urgency and difficulty of increasing production and ensuring supply may be more severe than expected. 2) Demand growth toughness exceeded expectations: the downstream data of coal from January to February 2022 seemed to perform poorly, but considering the high growth in the same period last year, the actual performance this year was acceptable, and the demand growth toughness was still very strong. With the continuous development of the national “steady growth” measures, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased steadily, which is expected to drive the higher than expected growth of downstream coal demand. 3) When large factories raise the price of purchased coal, the price limit space is opened, which is higher than expected: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) 2022 from January 15 to February 11, the price of purchased 5500 kcal of coal is not less than 900 yuan, indicating that “the pit mouth is not more than 700 yuan / ton and the port is not more than 900 yuan / ton”. The impact of the price limit order is weakened, and the space for the rise of spot price is opened. Under the situation of tight supply and demand, it is expected that the coal price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. 4) The Russian Ukrainian crisis catalyzed the global energy crisis, and overseas coal prices soared higher than expected: the spot price index of the three major international power coal rose sharply, superimposed with the uncertain prospect of the liberalization of imported coal from Australia and the export obstruction caused by the need for Indonesian coal mines to fulfill DMO, the supplementary effect of imported coal on the supply of China’s market was limited, and the coal import situation was tight. High overseas coal prices and the transfer of imports to domestic trade may exacerbate the tension in coastal coal supply.
Coal price: the port price of thermal coal rebounded slightly, and coking coal and coke continued to be strong.
In terms of thermal coal, pit mouth and port continued to decline this week. On the supply side, under the influence of policies and regional traffic control of the epidemic, the transportation capacity is limited, the shipment of coal mines is general, and some coal mines have top warehouses; In consideration of the overhaul of Daqin line in May, the quotation of the port rose. On the demand side, the traditional off-season superimposes the impact of the epidemic, the demand is weak, and the daily consumption of the power plant remains low. We will continue to pay attention to policy changes and the impact of the epidemic in the follow-up.
In terms of coking coal and coke, supply and demand continued to be tight and prices continued to be strong. On the supply side, the recent epidemic in Shanxi has been serious, the shipment has been blocked, and the number of coke enterprises with limited production has increased; As for the import of Mongolian coal, on the 4th of this week, Ganqi Maodu port cleared 216 vehicles per day, with an increase of 7 vehicles per week, and the short-term freight and coal prices continued to rise; On the demand side, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is high, but it is difficult to arrive under the influence of the epidemic. The coking coal in the plant is passively lowered to the warehouse. At the same time, the outward transportation of coke is not smooth, and the accumulated coke warehouse is increasing. The downstream steel mills have resumed production in an orderly manner, and some coke inventories have been in urgent need, and even the phenomenon of furnace stewing has occurred, resulting in a strong demand for replenishment. The fifth round of increase of coke enterprises has been implemented. Considering the need to release space, most of them are bullish in the future.
High frequency data tracking
The port price of thermal coal fell; Coking coal port and pit mouth were flat. As of April 13, the comprehensive average price index: Bohai Rim thermal coal (q5500k) closed at 736.0 yuan / ton, down 1.0 yuan / ton (- 0.1%) on a weekly basis; As of April 15, the comprehensive trading price: cctd Qinhuangdao thermal coal (q5500) closed at 786.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; As of April 15, the closing price of Shanxi production of Qinhuangdao port power end coal (q5500) was 1135.0 yuan / ton, down 135.0 yuan / ton (- 10.6%) on a weekly basis; As of April 15, Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Indonesian coal (q5500) warehouse raised the price by 1226.0 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 63.0 yuan / ton (- 4.9%) on a weekly basis Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Australian coal (q5500) warehouse raised the price by 1231.0 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 63.0 yuan / ton (- 4.9%) on a weekly basis. In terms of coking coal, as of April 15, the price (including tax) of the main coking coal warehouse produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port increased by 3350.0 yuan / ton, which was flat on a weekly basis Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) Shanxi’s main coking coal closing price (tax included) was 3789.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; As of April 14, the average price of Shanxi main coking coal was 2713.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; As of April 15, the sector price of 1 / 3 coking coal truck in Luliang, Shanxi was 2550.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis.
Power coal port inventory fell and terminal inventory rose, while coking coal port inventory rose and terminal inventory fell. As of April 14, the total storage of power coal in the eight coastal provinces was 28.755 million tons, with a week on month increase of 661000 tons (+ 2.4%). As of April 15, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.8 million tons, down 230000 tons (- 4.6%) on a weekly basis. In terms of coking coal, as of April 15, the coking coal storage of the six major ports had 2.04 million tons, up 20000 tons (+ 1.0%) on a weekly basis; As of April 11, the total inventory of coking coal in China’s coking plants was 3.164 million tons, down 89000 tons (- 2.7%) on a weekly basis.
The railway arrival volume of Qinhuangdao Port decreased and the port throughput increased; Coal shipping costs fell. As of April 15, the arrival volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 3675.0 vehicles, with a decrease of 2515.0 vehicles (- 40.6%) on a weekly basis; The port throughput of Qinhuangdao port was 549000 tons, up 59000 tons (+ 12.0%) on a weekly basis. As of July, the freight price of coal in Qindao was RMB 24.0-5 million / DW, down from that of Shanghai Huangdao (- 4.5%); Qinhuangdao Guangzhou (5 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 000 DWT) Maritime coal freight rate index ocfi38 0 yuan / ton, down 14.1 yuan / ton (- 27.1%) on a weekly basis.
Downstream performance: the price of coke rises, the price of steel falls, the operating rate of blast furnace rises, the price of methanol falls and the price of cement falls. As of April 15, the closing price of Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) quasi primary metallurgical coke (including tax) was 3810.0 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 200.0 yuan / ton (+ 5.5%). Shanghai rebar price (hrb40020mm) was 5080.0 yuan / ton, down 10.0 yuan / ton (- 0.2%) on a weekly basis; The national blast furnace operating rate (247) was 80.1%, with a weekly increase of 0.8% (+ 1.1%); Methanol price index was 2820.0, down 25.0 (- 0.9%) on a weekly basis; As of April 15, the national cement price index was 171.5, down 0.21 (- 0.1%) on a weekly basis.
Risk warning: policy price limit risk; Coal import volume; The macro economy has fallen sharply.
