Weekly News Express
Industry news: 1) bureau of Statistics: in 2021, the per capita consumption expenditure of food, tobacco and alcohol of national residents was 7178 yuan (+ 12.2%), accounting for 29.8% of the per capita consumption expenditure. In March, the national consumer price increased by 1.5% year-on-year, and the price of food, tobacco and alcohol decreased by 0.3% year-on-year; 2) Jinsha County: plans to invest in Baijiu industrial project 14, 16 billion 620 million yuan. 2022Q1 regulations on Baijiu enterprise, it is estimated that the output of finished wine will reach 4 kiloton, and the output value is expected to be 1 billion 90 million yuan (+72.2%).
Company news: 1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : I Maotai launched Tencent wechat platform and Sina Weibo. Health wine industry plans to transfer 40% equity of platinum wine; 2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the first phase of the high-quality multiplication project was started on September 9, with a total investment of 20 billion and a planned land area of 3250 mu; 3) Suggested retail price: RMB 6008 per set; 4) Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : the first phase of Chongqing campaign is well developed, and the second phase is mainly deployed.
Key information feedback this week
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : I Maotai is running well. 1) The total amount of the four products put in every day is stable between 25000 and 26000 bottles, showing a decreasing trend in the near future. March 31 is the first day of I Maotai’s trial operation, with the largest amount of 26328 bottles. The amount of products put in two days after the Qingming holiday is at a low value, 25065 bottles and 25007 bottles respectively. 2) On the first day of I Maotai trial operation, 3526 bottles of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (treasures), 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (year of renyin tiger) and 375ml 2 (year of renyin tiger) were put into operation respectively. Maotai 1935, the only Maotai flavor series liquor, has the largest amount of 13492 bottles, exceeding the sum of the first three products. 3) From April 1 to 2, the dosage of 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of the tiger) was 13468 bottles and 14715 bottles respectively; From March 31 to April 12, the total quantity of 149196 bottles was put in, ranking first among the four products.
Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : the company’s revenue in 2021 was 6.406 billion yuan, an increase of 25.12% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.029 billion yuan, an increase of 29.50% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of RMB 2.033 billion, an increase of 30.50% at the same time. 2022 plan: the revenue target of 2022 is 7.5 billion yuan to 8 billion yuan, that is, the revenue growth rate is 17% – 25%; The net profit target is 2.25 billion yuan – 2.35 billion yuan, that is, the net profit growth rate is 11% – 16%. Baijiu liquor revenue 6 billion 369 million yuan (same increase 25%), sales volume of 32 thousand tons (same increase 1%), corresponding ton price of 199 thousand yuan / ton (with 24% increase), price contribution greater than quantity. The company has completed the repurchase on November 26, 2021, and the equity incentive plan is expected to accelerate the implementation in the first half of 2022. Three highlights of the company in the future: first, the 10 billion target of V Series in the next decade, and the price band of 600700 yuan for V3 and competitive M6 + advance card; Second, the 14th five year plan for Southern Jiangsu is expected to be nearly 4 billion, with large growth space in the future; Third, the proportion outside the province in the 14th five year plan accounts for more than 20%, and the expansion outside the province is a must for the company to open the ceiling.
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : the company’s revenue in 2021 was 19.971 billion yuan (+ 42.75%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.314 billion yuan (+ 72.56%). In 2022q1, the total operating revenue was about 10.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 43% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 3.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 70% at the same time, and the net interest rate is 35.2% (an increase of 5.4pct at the same time). The first quarter started well as scheduled. There are mainly the following reasons: 1) the company actively carries out work around “Four Focuses” and “four insistences”. 2) In the first quarter, the company flexibly adjusted its marketing policies and took multiple measures at the same time. Medium and high-end products such as Qinghua Fenjiu series achieved a significant growth, We believe that the company’s revenue growth rate of Qinghua 30 and above products exceeds 40%, and we will continue to optimize the product structure. We believe that the company’s five highlights in the future are: 1) build a 2 + 2 brand, the core of Fenjiu and Zhuyeqing drives the development of the company, and Xinghuacun brand and series of brands are beneficial supplements. 2) a large health industry platform with Zhuyeqing as the core. 3) “grasp both ends and strengthen the waist” Under the product strategy, blue and white series continue to enhance the brand strength of the company. 4) Regional expansion implemented the “1357” nationwide layout, and gradually built the marketing organization structure of 31 provinces and regions + 10 directly under the management area. 5) With the gradual completion of the company’s layout, the optimization of product structure and the deepening of national layout, the company’s net interest rate under the scale effect is expected to increase from more than 20% at present to more than 30% in the future.
Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) : the epidemic continued to occur frequently in many places in 2022. The company took the following measures to reduce the epidemic and other external effects: 1) catering channel sales are facing pressure and challenges. At present, the loss of catering sales is made up by accelerating the expansion of residential channels and the breakthrough of online and special channels. Haitian will accelerate sales transformation and strive to achieve double-digit growth target. 2) Reduce the impact of community group buying by expanding the new retail team, accelerating the layout of professional network channels, and strengthening cooperation with meituan and other platforms. The categories will expand orderly, and vinegar and cooking wine will be the fourth and fifth categories of the company. After the “Three Five Year Plan”, cooking wine will strive to be the first in the industry, and vinegar will enter the top three in the industry. The company will increase product innovation, continuously launch new products and occupy the market. For new products, the company has adjusted its organizational structure and established a special organization for integration. The annual sales expense rate is expected to remain stable, and we expect it to remain at 5% – 6%. Considering the impact of the epidemic this year, we believe that the company’s annual revenue and profit growth target of 12% is expected to be achieved.
Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) : in 2021, the revenue was 5.985 billion yuan (with an increase of 13%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 929 million yuan (with an increase of 15%), and the non net profit deducted was 799 million yuan (with an increase of 16%). Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 2.103 billion yuan (with an increase of 28%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 334 million yuan (with an increase of 21%). Brand side: the company continues to strengthen the publicity and popularization of nuts and melon seeds nutrition and health, position nuts as daily nutritional necessities, increase the advantage publicity of “quality manufacturing” and build the brand awareness of nut experts. Product side: the headquarters, business units and business units (BU) continue to focus on nut snack food and main channel categories around the strategic objectives and business plans, follow the principle of “one of the best” and occupy a leading position in the market; Create the first high-end brand of “kuizhen” sunflower seeds and seize the market share; Create classic red bag and blue bag series of new products, continuously extend the flavor, and launch new flavors such as rattan pepper melon seeds, sea melon seeds and orange peel melon seeds, so as to strengthen the core competitiveness of national sunflower products. Channel side: the company accelerated the intensive cultivation of channels, expanded online channels and new channels simultaneously, and realized the development of all channels.
Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) : the overall sales of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) products were normal in the first quarter. 1) The transformation and upgrading launched by the company in 2021 has realized the focus on core categories, the transformation to all channels, the intensive cultivation of central and South China, and the key expansion of southwest and East China Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) cooperatively promote new products and popular products, which is an important channel for the company’s brand promotion. 2) The company alleviated the impact of the epidemic by strengthening R & D, focusing on intelligent production, actively carrying out automation transformation, and seeking long-term strategic cooperation with suppliers.
3) The company focuses on five categories: deep-sea snacks, spicy brine snacks, leisure baked snacks, potato chips and dried fruits, covering all channels. 4) The overall comprehensive capacity of the supply chain has been greatly improved, and the product power and cost performance have been improved, which is conducive to the sinking of the company’s channels and regional expansion. At present, there is no price adjustment plan. 5) The promotion of quantitative packaging focuses on the channel market and gives priority to the channel brand of quantitative packaging; Small BC stores and chain convenience stores concentrated in 16 provinces have not fully entered the site yet.
Sirio Pharma Co.Ltd(300791) : the performance in 2022 will increase by 70% on the basis of 2019, and the target of 2.7 billion is expected to be achieved. The shortage of orders from January to February led to the rise of fixed costs, the performance rebounded in March, and the overall trend in the second quarter was good. The company’s medium-term goal is to establish the leading position in the core market. Through “one strategic closed loop and four strategic pillars”, namely global insight, product innovation, global supply chain and international market. 1) The marketing strategy is to focus on the main business, expand new areas and extend downstream; The supply chain strategy is to establish an “excellent supply chain”; R & D innovation is to ensure the achievement of medium-term goals with the help of Chinese engineer dividends and global 3D R & D layout; organizational change is to establish a “customer-oriented” self driven organization. 2) In 2022, focus on 3 + 1 core dosage forms (3 dosage forms as competitive advantages, 1 is probiotics) to consolidate the key customer strategy; China: recruit Internet BD Director to expand e-commerce and cutting-edge customers; America: promote product upgrading based on the advantages of vegetable gum 2.0; Europe: establish a European key account team to achieve regional breakthrough.
Investment view
We believe that the dynamic clearing of this round of epidemic is expected to accelerate, and consumption is expected to accelerate the recovery, mainly for the following reasons: 1) on April 13 this week, the State Council held a national standing committee meeting, at which policies and measures to promote consumption were clearly deployed to help stabilize the economic fundamentals and ensure the improvement of people’s lives. Among them, it is clearly stated that we should pay close attention to the implementation of the relief policies for special hardship industries such as catering, retail, tourism, civil aviation, highway, waterway and railway transportation, and encourage local governments to increase assistance and stabilize more subjects of the consumer service market. Ensure the supply and price of basic consumer goods and ensure smooth logistics. We believe that the government is ready for the May Day golden week. 2) Since April, 15 cities in Dalian, Lanzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing and Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) region have loosened the house purchase policy, involving purchase restriction, loan restriction, sale restriction, provident fund loan, house loan interest rate, etc. We believe that the deregulation of the house purchase policy is conducive to promoting consumption, ensuring the improvement of people’s livelihood and accelerating the recovery of consumption. 3) Since April 7, there have been more than 20000 new asymptomatic infections in Shanghai. From April 15 to 16, the number of new asymptomatic infections in Shanghai was less than 20000; The RO value of Shanghai epidemic spread index decreased from the initial 2.7 to 1.23 on April 16. We believe that this round of Shanghai epidemic is very close to being controlled, and the inflection point is expected to accelerate.
Considering the post epidemic era and the recovery of consumption, we believe that the food and beverage sector recommends the following four main lines:
1) the current epidemic situation in the Shanghai area is the worst hit area. We recommend relatively small stocks with larger early impact and Shanghai area influence. The Baijiu sector recommended Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) and Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) . Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) etc.
2) the early stage of the larger share of the stock and the damaged stocks. We recommend Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) for Baijiu sector, and recommend Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) and Three Squirrels Inc(300783) that the stores are expected to gradually restore. Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , and Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , and the potential recovery of the products, such as Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , and the products that are affected by the epidemic, will be gradually restored. Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) etc.
3) the stocks with a large early decline and two quarter results have certain certainty. We recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) for Baijiu sector. The public products recommend Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , etc.
4) the stocks with a larger early fall and 51 may benefit from the Baijiu sector. We recommend Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) . The public products recommend Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , “Dan”, “Huarun” and “beer”.
On the whole, we maintain the “overweight” rating of the food and beverage industry.
Risk tips
Risk of epidemic fluctuation; Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Recommend the risk that the company’s performance is less than expected; Industry competition risk; Food safety risks; Risk of changes in industrial policies; Consumption tax or production risk; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
