I. core view
Rating and Strategy: Recently, the price of white chicken products has continued to rise, and all links of the industrial chain have turned losses into profits. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the configuration opportunities at the bottom of the broiler sector. The pig industry has continued to suffer losses since the middle of 21 years, the logic of capacity de industrialization is firm, and the probability of turning the head upward of pig price q2-q3 is high. It maintains the “optimistic” rating, and focuses on recommending four golden pigs that are obviously underestimated. High grain prices outside China are conducive to the rise of the profit center of the planting industry and maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry.
1. Aquaculture industry chain
1) white chicken industry: the price of white chicken series products is rising, and it is strongly recommended to pay attention to the bottom configuration opportunity. Last week, the average price of chicken seedlings in the main production area was 2.32 yuan / feather, with a monthly increase of 103%; The average price of wool chicken was 4.47 yuan / kg, with a monthly increase of 15%. The price of chicken products has risen above the cost line. In terms of production capacity, at the end of March, the inventory of parents’ generation in production decreased by 4.7% and 11.7%, lower than the annual average of 8.8%. The reduction in the production and inventory of parents’ generation will lag two months, which is reflected in the marketing of commercial wool chicken and chicken supply. The supply side supports the continuous rise of white chicken prices in the short term. In addition, the recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in European and American countries may inhibit the introduction of Chinese ancestors, suspension of introduction and medium-term rise in prices, or high probability events. The stock prices of relevant stocks are currently at historic lows, and it is strongly recommended to pay attention to the bottom allocation opportunities of the broiler sector. Individual stocks focus on Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002234) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) and Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) .
2) pig industry: maintain the “optimistic” rating, and currently focus on recommending four golden pigs that are obviously underestimated. Last week, the average price of pigs in Jiangxi Province was 12.87 yuan / kg, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; Binary sows were 32.69 yuan / kg, up 0.01 yuan per week. The average head loss of the self breeding and autotrophic model is estimated to be 531 yuan, thanks to 20 yuan compared with last week. Pig prices are currently at the bottom of the cycle and there is limited room for decline in the future. At the bottom of this cycle, the range and duration of industry losses exceeded those in the past. Maintain the judgment on the acceleration of capacity removal Q2 and the bottom reversal of pig price Q3. The market value of most individual stocks is below a reasonable level, and the investment has a good safety margin, maintaining the “optimistic” rating of the sector. Four gold pigs that have been significantly underestimated are highly recommended, and four golden pigs that have been significantly underestimated, with the Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) \ .
2) yellow chicken industry: maintain the “optimistic” rating and recommend Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) . In March, the price of Lihua yellow chicken was 12.81 yuan / kg, down 1.35 yuan / kg per month; Wen’s yellow chicken costs 13.44 yuan / kg, down 1.19 yuan / kg per month. At the end of March, the production and stock of parent breeders in China decreased by 0.8% and 4.7% respectively, 1.1% lower than the annual average level. Since 21 / Q4, the chicken price has always been running above the cost line. The correction in March is mainly affected by the off-season demand. It is expected that in the middle and later stage of Q2, the chicken price will return to the shock rising channel with the end of the off-season. In the medium and long term, environmental protection constraints and the transformation of live birds to fresh ice will raise the industry threshold, promote the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity and optimize the competition pattern. Maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry, mainly recommend Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , and pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) .
3) dynamic insurance: give a good rating, with emphasis on Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) . On the eve of the reversal of the pig cycle, the vaccine boom was under short-term pressure. In the medium and long term, the improvement of large-scale breeding level, the upgrading of vaccine technology and the listing of new products will drive the expansion of the animal protection market. At the same time, the new GMP certificate certification, feed prohibition and breeding restriction, as well as the improvement of the biological security level of the breeding industry will promote the reform of the animal protection industry and optimize the competition pattern. PE stocks are currently at the bottom of history, with a high margin of safety in valuation, and are given a positive rating. Stocks with reasonable valuation and R & D advantages are recommended Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) .
2. Planting industry chain
1) planting: maintain the “optimistic” rating, and highlight Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Under the background of continuous international geographical conflicts, the status of China’s planting industry has increased. The recent high consolidation of grain prices outside China is expected to continue during the year. Maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry and recommend Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) .
2) seed industry: maintain the “optimistic” rating, focusing on Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) and Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) . The commercialization of genetically modified products of staple grain seeds is the general trend. Once landed, it will open the development space of seed industry and optimize the competition pattern. The leading enterprises that have advanced the research and development of genetically modified seeds are expected to gain more market share by virtue of their first mover advantage. Maintain the long-term “optimistic” rating of the industry, focusing on the investment opportunities of corn seed industry. In terms of individual stocks, focus on Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) .
II. Market Review
Agricultural performance is better than that of big cities. 1. Last week, the Shenwan agricultural index rose 1.14%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.24%, and the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.59%. The agricultural performance was significantly better than that of the big market; 2. As for the fine molecule industry, except for the adjustment of animal protection and breeding, other sub industries increased, with feed and planting leading the increase; 3. The top 10 gainers are mainly concentrated in the planting sector, and the top 10 losers are concentrated in the breeding sector. The top three stocks in terms of growth were Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) , Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) and Xinjiang Talimu Agriculture Development Co.Ltd(600359) .
III. industry data
Pigs: in the 15th week, the average ex factory price of pigs in Jiangxi Province was 12.87 yuan / kg, unchanged on a weekly basis; The self breeding heads in the main pig producing areas in China lost 531 yuan, 20 yuan more than last week. By the end of February 2022, the number of fertile sows in China was 42.68 million, a month on month decrease of 0.5%;
Broiler: in the 15th week, the average price of chicken seedlings in Yantai, Shandong Province was 2.32 yuan / feather, with a weekly increase of 0.42 yuan; The average price of white feather chicken in front of the shed was 4.47 yuan / kg, up 0.2 yuan per week; In the 15th week, the single feather profit of broiler breeding was 2.31 yuan, 1.02 yuan more than that of the previous week;
Feed: in the 15th week, the average price of broiler feed was 3.98 yuan / kg, down 0.04 yuan per week; The price of fattening pig feed was 3.82 yuan / kg, unchanged on a weekly basis;
Aquatic products: in the 15th week, the price of sea cucumber / scallop / prawn / Abalone in Shandong Weihai wholesale market was 180 / 10 / 310 / 100 yuan / kg, unchanged on a weekly basis;
Grain and others: in the 15th week, the spot price of Nanning white sugar was 5902 yuan / ton, up 56 yuan per week; The price of Chinese cotton fell by 3273 yuan / week; The average purchase price of corn in China was 2763 yuan / ton, down 8 yuan per week; The average spot price of Chinese soybean meal was 4557 yuan / ton, up 76 yuan a week; In the 15th week, the average spot price of Chinese wheat was 3100 yuan / ton, up 16 yuan per week; The average price of Japonica Rice in China was 2758 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis;
IV. risk warning
The price changes of raw materials such as sudden epidemic diseases, livestock and poultry, aquatic products and corn are less than expected
