The essence of Electronics still depends on demand, which comes from two aspects - scientific and Technological Innovation & domestic substitution:
1. Technological innovation: 1) information technology reform: opportunities for electric and intelligent vehicles; VR reaches the inflection point of permeability. 2) Energy technology transformation: in the era of parity, energy technology transformation is accelerated, and photovoltaic power generation and energy storage help switch between old and new energy sources.
2. Domestic substitution: the shortage tide in 21 years has accelerated domestic substitution, and high-quality companies have accelerated their share
Recent market concerns are more from the disturbance of short-term epidemic:
1. Downstream demand fluctuation: new energy vehicle shutdown, photovoltaic overseas fluctuation, mobile phone sales and wearable sales are worried;
2. Unstable supply chain: the epidemic has affected logistics and production, and the supply chain is unstable.
Our judgment:
1. Downstream demand and other epidemic inflection points, and the delay is a short-term disturbance;
2. The instability of the supply chain and other epidemic situations may lead to the phenomenon of hoarding goods, which will prolong the bearing cycle of the industrial chain;
3. Domestic substitution is still strong α， More attention should be paid to it.
Strong domestic substitution α： Continue to be optimistic about power semiconductors, MCU, simulation, materials and equipment
1) IGBT: the space brought by photovoltaic and new energy vehicles for a long time is large, and the domestic substitution is accelerated. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) , etc.
2) analog and MCU: the market space is large, the domestic substitution is accelerated, and the high-quality company is now available. It is suggested to pay attention to Sg Micro Corp(300661) , 3Peak Incorporated(688536) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) , etc.
3) semiconductor materials: silicon wafers, carrier sectors or core materials with large market space. It is suggested to pay attention to: National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Konfoong Materials International Co.Ltd(300666) , Shennan Circuits Co.Ltd(002916) , Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) , Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) , etc.
4) semiconductor equipment: domestic substitution accelerates, resulting in performance release. It is suggested to pay attention to: Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) , etc.
After the inflection point of the epidemic, the automotive industry has many catalysts and great consumer electronics elasticity:
Automotive electronics: the short-term damage is due to the shutdown pressure. After the short-term pressure is released, the intelligent direction continues to be optimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to: Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Shunyu optics, Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) , Changguang Huaxin, etc.
Consumer electronics: the epidemic has delayed the recovery of the industry. It is judged that the second quarter has bottomed out. It is suggested to pay attention to: Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Goertek Inc(002241) , Avary Holding (Shenzhen) Co.Limited(002938) , Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co.Ltd(002384) , etc.
Risk tips:
The stability of the economic environment at home and abroad will have a continuous impact on the downstream demand and production of the electronic industry; Increased competition has an impact on the profitability of the industry; The company's lack of competitiveness has an impact on the judgment of profit forecast; The industry scale calculation in the report is based on certain assumptions, and there are risks that are less than expected.
