Weekly gathering of scientific and technological views (Communication)
Event: at 9:56 on April 16, the return module of Shenzhou 13 manned spacecraft successfully landed at the Dongfeng landing site. The Shenzhou 13 manned mission was a complete success, setting off another Aerospace boom. The market attention is expected to focus on China's aerospace infrastructure construction again.
Satellite navigation system is one of the most important national information infrastructure. At present, the global satellite navigation systems include GPS led by the United States, grinas of Russia, Galileo of the European Union and Beidou of China. Beidou navigation system is divided into three parts: space segment, user segment and ground segment. It provides seven services in two categories: navigation and positioning and communication data transmission. Facing the military field, Beidou products are used in sea, land, air, war support and rocket forces. Beidou handheld, vehicle mounted, shipborne, airborne, missile borne and other products provide navigation, positioning, timing or communication functions, and provide services for geographic mapping, aircraft attitude determination, missile guidance, ship navigation and so on.
The core of Beidou navigation system is the accuracy of time service and inter satellite link technology. Beidou user machine provides one-way time service and two-way time service. The accuracy of one-way time service is 100ns and that of two-way time service is 20ns. Atomic clock determines the position accuracy, speed and time function of aircraft, and is the core of accurate time service. At the same time, multiple satellites can be interconnected by using the inter satellite link to establish an intelligent satellite network completely independent of the ground system, so as to expand the communication capacity of the system and improve the survivability, autonomy, mobility and flexibility of the system. Inter satellite link technology is an important basis for building space-based information transmission network.
Beisan military terminal market has a scale of 10 billion, and vehicle mounted and individual soldiers have become the largest incremental market. Beidou terminals or modules, as transitional equipment, were mainly used in airborne and missile borne fields to realize positioning, navigation and timing functions during the second Beidou period. They were not installed on a large scale at the vehicle mounted and individual soldier levels. Beidou-3 has greatly enhanced the short message communication capability, and compared with traditional tactical radio, satellite communication has the natural advantages of unlimited communication distance and unified communication system, which makes it possible for Beidou terminal to be installed on a large scale at the vehicle and individual level. In terms of scenarios, the vehicle mounted field is mainly used for communication command vehicles and armored vehicles of ground forces. The vehicle mounted terminals are divided into ordinary type and command type. The command type terminal is slightly expensive, which is estimated as 100% full allocation; In the airborne and missile borne fields, it is still mainly to realize the functions of high-precision positioning, navigation and time service, or to survive in the form of board and antenna. The estimated unit price is between 5 Shenzhen Ecobeauty Co.Ltd(000010) 0000 yuan, which is estimated as 100% full allocation; In the field of individual soldiers, combat units are mainly arranged in the form of handheld terminals, which are divided into ordinary type and command type. The estimated unit price is 1 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 yuan and more than 50000 yuan respectively, which is estimated according to the assembly rate of 20%. To sum up, the stock market space of Beisan terminal or module is about 8 billion yuan. If we consider the one year assembly of new one and the sea one belt, one road, the market will reach 10 billion.
Investment advice
The Beidou industry has a scale of 100 billion. Among them, the application of Beisan in the military field deserves attention. On the one hand, there is an urgent demand for domestic substitution of high-precision positioning and guidance. On the other hand, the strengthening of short message communication capability makes it possible for Beidou terminal to be installed in vehicle and individual level. The market space is considerable, and it is expected to enter batch production in the second half of the year. In terms of target, it is recommended to focus on Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated Company(002465) , which has excellent performance in chip, antenna, board and terminal, and Piesat Information Technology Co.Ltd(688066) , which is the only civilian military enterprise to win the bid for Beidou terminal / command aircraft software (APP).
Affected by the repeated epidemic and the Fed's interest rate hike, investors' risk appetite is low. We believe that the valuation of the communication sector has a good allocation value, but in the short term, there are many uncertain factors such as macroeconomic and epidemic, and the sector may continue to fluctuate under the influence of market sentiment. In the short term, it is recommended to adopt the absolute return allocation strategy, and continue to pay attention to the targets with optimistic performance expectations this year but suppressed by emotions. In April, we still suggested to focus on the three main lines of operators, exports and 0-1 emerging tracks.
1) 5g and Gigabit broadband dividends continue to penetrate, the operator's C-end ARPU stabilizes and the upward trend remains unchanged, and the fixed network broadband ARPU value continues to improve under the Gigabit broadband and Zhijia strategy. Digital economy has become the main theme of industrial Internet this year, and the b-end aicde business of operators is expected to benefit fully. Among them, the share of mobile and telecom cloud computing continued to increase, and the proportion of b-end performance contribution continued to increase. Operators dominate the construction of computing power network, the attribute of science and innovation is gradually highlighted, and the valuation center is expected to rise. It is suggested to focus on China Mobile and China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) .
2) the wireless and broadband capital expenditure of North American telecom operators is expected to reach double-digit growth this year, driving the year-on-year high growth of China Ericsson Nokia supply chain and broadband equipment industry; North American top cloud manufacturers will further invest in several major cloud infrastructure, and the global data communication optical module market is expected to achieve a high growth rate of 25%; The global module industry continues to grow at a high rate. China's leading manufacturers have achieved comprehensive transcendence, with strong industry beta + leading alpha, and high investment certainty in the Internet of things sector. It's recommended to focus on the , Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) etc.
3) from 0 to 1, the high boom and high growth sub industries are expected to contribute excess returns in the medium and long term, such as communication + automotive intelligence, communication + new energy, communication + laser sensing, etc. at the same time, the historical burden of relevant companies is small & business adjustment is light, and the high growth rate of molecular end performance is expected to hedge the negative impact of denominator end risk preference. It is suggested to pay attention to Dongguan Dingtong Precision Metal Co.Ltd(688668) , Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.Ltd(300731) , Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) , Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , torch technology, Changguang Huaxin, etc.
Risk tips
The volume of Beisan terminal was lower than expected.
