Key investment points
Market review: last week, the electrical equipment sector closed at 997706, down - 6.53%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 321124, down - 1.25%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 1164857, down - 2.6%; The CSI 300 index closed at 418875, down - 0.99%; The gem index closed at 246036, down - 4.26%.
In terms of sub sectors, the photovoltaic equipment sector fell - 6.11%; Wind power equipment sector fell - 7.91%; The battery sector fell - 9.17%, with the largest decline; The power grid equipment sector fell - 5.07%, with the smallest decline; Motor sector fell - 5.3%; Other power equipment sectors fell - 5.83%.
Investment suggestion: last week, the electrical equipment sector continued to adjust by a large margin, and the main sub sectors fell by a large margin. We believe that the fundamental logic of all sectors of Dianxin has not changed, and the main reason for the decline is the impact of short-term factors. After recent continuous adjustment, the valuation has returned to reasonable, the space for decline in the future is limited, and the rebound is imminent. At present, the photovoltaic sector is still strongly recommended. The performance probability in the first quarter is higher than expected. The growth certainty of the sector in the future is the highest, and the demand for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) alternative fossil energy is increasing. It is strongly recommended to actively layout the photovoltaic sector; Affected by the supply chain problems, the new energy vehicle sector has fallen in the short term, and the valuation has reached a stage low. We expect that the sales volume data in April will still have significant month on month growth, and the impact of short-term logistics will soon recover. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of high nickel ternary and undervalued copper foil.
New energy: at present, photovoltaic raw materials are relatively less affected by the epidemic, and the main production capacity is close to full production. Prices in all links of the industrial chain still rose slightly. The strong upward certainty of terminal demand and industry prosperity is mainly due to a. the continuation of distributed high growth trend, B. the release of silicon production capacity, and C. The high growth of installed demand in Europe. We believe that in the short term, the probability of photovoltaic data in the first quarter is higher than expected. With the continuous release of new silicon production capacity, the supply side is gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand. In the long run, the global PV installed capacity is expected to exceed 200GW in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. At present, there are investment opportunities in the whole PV sector. The order of segment segmentation is silicon battery silicon wafer module. It is recommended to actively layout companies with alpha.
Wind power: in the global environment of carbon emission reduction, the long-term trend is good, but the short-term performance is affected by the price rise of upstream raw materials and the price reduction of downstream main engines, so it is difficult to achieve high growth. At present, the valuation is at a reasonable level. It is suggested to pay attention to the catalysis brought to the sector by the future bidding situation of the industry and the price trend of raw materials.
New energy vehicles: according to the sales data released in March this week, the sales volume of fuel vehicles is weak, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 28%. In the short term, the production of some vehicle enterprises is affected by the epidemic, but we expect the sales data in April will still exceed expectations, forming a catalytic factor of stock price. In the long run, due to the impact of lithium supply, the growth rate of global sales may be lower than expected, and the possibility of sector opportunities is low. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of technology replacement and capacity tension. It is recommended that the domestic aluminum-plastic film sector may replace the accelerated aluminum-plastic film sector this year.
Power equipment: last week, the international commodity prices remained stable as a whole, and the prices of copper, aluminum and steel were adjusted at a high level. It is still difficult to predict the subsequent price change trend and continue to follow up.
The combination of this week will combine the combination of the combination of the week: Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) ;, Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) .
Risk warning: the risk that the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; Risk of policy uncertainty; The risk of price decline due to fierce market competition.
