Liquidity: in March, the growth rate difference of m1m2 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to – 5 percentage points month on month. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in February 2022 was 51.44, a month on month increase of + 6.57%. The high probability of phased high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Stock Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 5.0 percentage points in March 2022 and – 0.50 percentage points month on month; (3) SPDR gold ETF position this week was 109949 tons, up + 1.12%, a 12-month high.
The output of key chain steel enterprises in the first ten days of the month increased by 96.4% compared with that in the first ten days of the month. (1) Price changes this week: thread – 0.20%, cement price index – 0.12%, rubber – 0.39%, coke + 0.00%, coking coal + 0.26%, iron ore – 1.19%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were + 1.47pct, + 3.91pct, + 1.80pct and + 7.28pct respectively; (3) In early April 2022, the average daily output of crude steel of key enterprises was 2.224 million tons, a month on month increase of + 2.96%.
Real estate completion chain: the profits of titanium dioxide and flat glass are at a low level in the same period of three years. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and + 0.00% month on month respectively this week; (2) The profit of titanium dioxide this week was 692 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 2.59%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 201 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of + 0.00%.
Industrial product chain: the average daily sales volume of passenger car wholesale and retail is at a high level in the same period of 5 years. (1) Price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by + 0.00%, + 2.15%, – 0.28% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by + 11.17%, + 1.95%, – 1.95%; (2) In March 2022, the national PMI new order index was 48.80%, with a chain comparison of – 1.9 percentage points; (3) As of the week of April 10, 2022, the four week rolling value of the average daily sales volume of wholesale and retail passenger cars was 114000, with a month on month ratio of – 9.54%.
Subdivided varieties: copper price reached a new high since June 2021, and molybdenum concentrate continued to reach a new high since 2012. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 25500 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 425745 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 5.48%; (2) Nickel: the price this week is 236200 yuan / ton, up + 6.16% from last week; (3) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 7100 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.00%; (4) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21730 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of -0.28%, and the estimated profit is 3565.7 yuan / ton (excluding tax), with a chain comparison of -1.95%; (5) This week, the Platts price index was 159.85 US dollars / ton, and the comprehensive gross profit of the steel industry was 288 yuan / ton, up + 1.57% from last week; (6) The price of molybdenum concentrate is 2850 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 1.79%; (7) The price of electrolytic copper this week was 75470 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.15%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread fell back to 130 yuan / ton. (1) The price ratio of screw thread to iron ore was 5.12 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar on Friday is 130 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 580 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month ratio of + 10 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.09; (5) The price difference between coil screw (mainly used in real estate) and rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) reached 190 yuan / ton on Friday, up + 0.00% from last week; (6) The price difference of rebar between Xinjiang and Shanghai was 10 yuan / ton on Friday.
Export chain: the CCFI index fell sharply to the level of September 2021 for two consecutive months. 1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index this week was 311775 points, a month on month -2.72%; (2) In March 2022, the value of new orders of global PMI was 51.40%, with a chain comparison of – 2.10 percentage points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was – 0.99%. Coal mining (+ 5.20%) was the best performing sector in the cycle. The quantile of Pb ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) were 44.13% and 88.44% respectively; The ratio of Pb in Pu steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.56, and the highest value since 2013 is 0.82 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: under the policy of “steady growth”, the marginal improvement of demand in the steel industry is expected to increase, and the reduction of crude steel production is expected to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , 60019; The price of prebaked anode is at the highest level since 2017. It is recommended to pay attention to Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
