Recently, the premium income of insurance companies has been released from January to February 2023. The cumulative premium income and year-on-year growth from January to March 2022 in the first three months of the 2022 years of the 2022 years from January to march in the 2022 years from January to 2022, with the cumulative premiums and year-on- rmb315 billion (yoy-2.7%).
Comments:
I. the differentiation of life insurance premium income is obvious, and NBV growth may still be under pressure
The year-on-year growth rate of life insurance premium income of Chinese Listed Companies in a single month in March is: CPIC life (+ 10.1%) China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (+ 5.6%) PICC Life (+ 1.8%) New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (- 4.1%) Ping An Life (- 4.2%). The life insurance premium income of all companies continued to be significantly differentiated: China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) the monthly premium growth rate changed from negative to positive, with a month on month improvement of 8.7pct; The growth rate of Ping An Life was basically the same as that in February, and continued to be under pressure; The growth rate of CPIC, PICC and Xinhua decreased to varying degrees. Among them, CPIC life still maintained a year-on-year high growth, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) growth rate changed from positive to negative, with a month on month ratio of -15.3pct.
In 2022q1, the new single premium of Ping An Life Insurance was – 15.7% year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the high base caused by the switching between the old and new definitions of serious diseases in the same period last year. The first year premium of PICC Life Insurance in March was + 37.5% year-on-year, of which the first year single premium of long-term insurance was + 31.9% year-on-year, a sharp decline compared with January and February, and the long-term premium of health insurance was – 36.6% year-on-year and – 12.6pct month on month. Under the pressure of personal insurance sales channels, we believe that the rapid growth of premiums of some companies is mainly driven by bancassurance channels. From the perspective of the industry as a whole, the monthly premium income of the above five listed life insurance companies in March was + 1.1% year-on-year, with a growth rate of -0.1pct month on month compared with that in February. We believe that it is mainly due to the continuous deepening of the reform of the life insurance industry and the low manpower scale. The superposition of the epidemic situation in many places in China in March repeatedly affected the offline development of agents. It is expected that the growth of Q1 new orders and NBV of various insurance companies will be under pressure, and the subsequent improvement of the production capacity of the life insurance industry and the easing of the epidemic are expected to be improved with the reform.
II. The epidemic has restricted the continuous high increase of auto insurance premiums, and the non auto premiums of China’s property insurance have increased steadily
The year-on-year growth rate of property insurance premium income of Chinese Listed Companies in March was: Zhong’an online (+ 14.4%) CPIC property insurance (+ 10.9%) China Property Insurance (+ 10.2%) Ping An Property Insurance (+ 9.2%). In addition to Zhong’an, the growth rate of monthly premium income of all property insurance enterprises slowed down to varying degrees. Overall, the monthly premium income of listed property insurance companies in March was + 10.1% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 5.6pct month on month compared with February. It is expected that it is mainly due to the drag of the epidemic on new car sales. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail and wholesale sales of narrow passenger cars in March were – 10.5% / – 1.6% year-on-year respectively, which had a great negative impact on new car premiums. In March, the monthly premium income of China property insurance was 22.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.6%. The growth rate fell for the first time since October 2021, but the cumulative year-on-year growth rate in 2022q1 remained at a relatively high level of 10.9%. We believe that as the pressure of comprehensive reform of auto insurance slows down, the average auto premium increases, and the comprehensive cost rate continues to improve, the overall good trend of auto insurance business remains unchanged after the phased relief of the epidemic. In terms of non auto insurance, the growth rate of China’s property insurance premium income rebounded slightly, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.7% in March, a month on month increase of + 1.5pct compared with February. Among them, agricultural insurance grew the fastest, with a year-on-year increase of + 45.9%, and Italian health insurance accounted for the highest proportion, 54.7%. Under the background of the policy support of “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” and the new demand for health insurance brought by the continuous epidemic, the scale and proportion of non vehicle premiums are expected to continue to increase.
Investment suggestion: the pressure on the liability side of life insurance may continue, and the long-term good trend of property insurance will remain unchanged. Under the background of continuous reform of the life insurance industry, all listed life insurance companies in 2022q1 have launched protection products represented by increased life insurance to provide targeted and high-quality services guided by customers. After the painful period of transformation, new orders and NBV are expected to rebound. Affected by the epidemic situation, the growth rate of auto insurance premiums in the property insurance industry has slowed down periodically, and the development of non auto premiums has made steady progress. If the epidemic situation is effectively controlled, we believe that the long-term fundamentals of property insurance based on cost advantage remain unchanged. As of April 15, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds was 2.76%, down 2.77bps from the beginning of the year, still at a historical low, and it is expected that the asset side margin will improve. It is suggested to pay attention to the multi line layout of the health and elderly care industry, and transform Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (a + H) and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (a + H), which are at the forefront of the industry, as well as China property insurance, which has a stable growth in auto insurance premium income, a continuous optimization of non auto business structure and outstanding scale advantages.
Risk tip: the long-term interest rate goes down; The epidemic situation repeats on a large scale; Premium growth was less than expected
