Industry tracking (2022.4.9-2022.4.15)
This round of policy relaxation path: Loan restriction has become the main focus
In the “substance is greater than form – Comments on Zhengzhou New Deal” (March 2, 2022), we proposed that “instead of waiting for the signal of top-down systematic relaxation, it is better to pay attention to local practical actions; instead of entanglement with the form of policy relaxation, it is better to rethink the ultimate goal that the policy wants to achieve”. Different from the small cycle of marginal easing in 18-19 years and 20 years (mainly purchase restriction and talent policies), the second and third tier cities represented by Zhengzhou in 22 years have independently broken through the four restriction policies (purchase restriction, loan restriction and price restriction), especially the intensive adjustment of loan restriction policies (the reduction of housing and loan recognition standards and down payment ratio), which represents that this round of urban implementation has officially entered the era of local comprehensive easing.
According to our incomplete statistics, since October 21, Xi’an, Wenzhou and other 27 cities have issued four limit relaxation policies, and many cities have reduced the first / second set of loan interest rates. By summarizing the data of new house sales area, amount, average price and inventory, we found that the year-on-year decline of new house sales area in 15 relaxed cities with data statistics expanded from – 22% of Q4 peak in 21 years to – 45% in January of 22 years. Both the year-on-year decline and the expansion range of decline were significantly higher than those in second tier cities (- 12% to – 30%) and the national average (- 17% to – 35%) in the same period.
Due to the effect of urban policy implementation: marginal improvement in the growth rate of sales price
Since the local government intensively relaxed the four restrictions policy in February, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of new house sales area in 15 relaxed cities has narrowed from – 45% in January to – 32% in March. In the same period, the second tier cities have expanded from – 30% to – 33% and the whole country from – 35% to – 39%. The overall improvement rate is better than that of other cities.
Although the overall fundamentals of the sample cities are still weak, the marginal improvement of the growth rate of the sales price index of new houses shows that the local urban policies still have a certain supporting effect, which is the same as our “passive response on the demand side?” (March 21, 2022) the conclusions of the report are basically the same. However, with reference to the phased weak improvement of 21q4 and the superimposed impact of the current epidemic and income expectation on demand, we believe that the policy effect needs to be continuously observed. The current policy strength may be difficult to establish the improvement trend, and it needs more intensive urban implementation signals, looser policy scales and the driving effect of hot cities to jointly boost market confidence.
Affected by the epidemic, the decline in transactions in new houses, second-hand houses and land markets continued to expand this week
The new housing market traded 3.35 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 54.90%, down 11.63 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory was 155.38 million square meters, the first-line and second-line de urbanization accelerated, and the third-line and below de urbanization slowed down. The second-hand housing market traded 1.41 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 41.18%, down 5.29 PCT compared with the previous month. The land market traded 7.63 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 36.29%; The total turnover was 7.3 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 54.83%; The national average premium rate is + 0.25%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -14.11pct.
This week, the Shenwan real estate index was – 2.90%, down 4.54 PCT from last week, ranking 17 / 31 higher, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.91 PCT. In terms of H shares, this week’s wind Hong Kong real estate index was – 1.01%, down 6.72 PCT from last week, ranking 6 / 11 higher, leading the Hang Seng Index by 0.61 PCT; The kroney leading index of real estate stocks was – 1.81%, down 12.46pct from last week.
Grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
Investment suggestion: the future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service. It is suggested to pay attention to: Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) , Yuexiu real estate, China Construction Development International and other local state-owned enterprises.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The decline of industry sales exceeded expectations; Because the implementation of urban policies is less than expected
