Key investment points
Grasp the opportunity of hoarding goods and home consumption, and pay attention to the month on month improvement. We believe that the consumption of household consumption has become the main axis of the two quarter of the year. Now, the government has consulted Shanghai residents on the guidelines for hoarding consumption. We believe that consumer goods are expected to maintain a good growth in the predominant dishes, pickled mustard tubers, frozen, dairy, high-end Baijiu and snack foods. The catering industry chain and related industries are expected to improve month on month.
Baijiu week tracking: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : according to today’s wine price data, the Flying Box / bottle is 28302640 yuan, and the ring week is basically unchanged. Maotai 1935 price fell 10 yuan to 1410. The wholesale prices of products above Feitian have declined, treasures have declined by 30 yuan to 4750 yuan, and the year of the tiger Zodiac has declined by 80 yuan to 3720 yuan, mainly due to the obvious increase in the supply of its own e-commerce platforms and dealer channels. This week, the prices of Feitian and Maotai 1935 products continued to be stable, while the prices of treasures and other products above Feitian continued to decline. According to the information of the wine industry, chairman Ding said at the 12th Party committee meeting of Maotai Group in 2022 this week that he focused on “ensuring more than half the time and more than half the task, and making further progress in tackling tough problems in reform” . In this round of price hikes, the inventory is not high, and it is about one month nationwide. At present, the demand and pricing in Guangdong have recovered after the recovery of the epidemic. We look forward to the valuation and repair opportunities brought by the upward pricing from May to June after the epidemic in East China Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the price of 1573 high-grade national cellar is maintained at 920 yuan around the week, and the price of low-grade national cellar is also stable at 640 yuan. It is expected that the payment will be made at the new cost in April, but the large-scale payment collection has not been started yet, and the channel feedback channel fees have been tightened.
Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : the annual growth rate is bright, and the target for 22 years is positive. The company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the revenue was 6.41 billion yuan, with an increase of 25.12%, and the deduction of non net profit was 2.03 billion yuan, with an increase of 30.50%; Among them, Q4 revenue / deduction of non net profit was 1.07/330 billion, with an increase of 15.84% / 29.45%; Previously, it was also announced that 22q1 achieved a revenue of about 3 billion, an increase of 25% and a net profit of about 1 billion, an increase of 24%. 1) The annual profit index is bright, and it is expected to go further in 22 years. Benefiting from the increase in the proportion of Guoyuan series and the upgrading of product structure brought by the large volume of V series, the annual gross profit margin increased by 4pct at 74.61%, the sales expense rate decreased by 2pct at 15.1%, and the management expense rate decreased by 0.44pct at 4.03%; In the 21st year, the net cash flow from operating activities was 3.024 billion, with an increase of 170.3% and contract liabilities of 2.07 billion, a significant increase of 970 million year-on-year, 88.59% year-on-year and 140.11% month on month compared with 2021q3, mainly due to the strong willingness of dealers to pay. The company has set a revenue target of 7.5 billion in 2022, striving for 8 billion, with an increase of 17-25%; The net profit target is 2.25 billion yuan, striving for 2.35 billion yuan, with an increase of 11% – 16%. 2) The structure continues to improve, and the V series may have more room to play. In terms of products, the growth rate of TA + products on the revenue side is ahead of the whole. The annual growth rate of TA + revenue is 35.71% and that of Q4 is 22%, far exceeding the overall growth rate of the company in the same period; In 2021, Guoyuan accounted for 80% +, and the past four open led the growth. Since the Spring Festival this year, the speed of other single products such as folio has increased significantly; We expect that there will be more room for the development of V series products in the future. The company has sorted out the prices of V series products, and the ex factory price of V3 may be increased. In the future, it will undertake upgrading. V9 group purchase is the main atmosphere. At the same time, the alliance continues to improve and upgrade. At present, the channel profit is relatively sufficient. 3) The new year’s goals are clear, and the five-year goals may be achieved at an accelerated pace. The company has set a revenue target of 7.5 billion in 2022, striving for 8 billion, an increase of 17-25% at the same time; The net profit target is 2.25 billion, striving for 2.35 billion, an increase of 11% – 16% at the same time. Since March, Jiangsu Province has been affected by the epidemic, and the pace of consumption has slowed down slightly, but the channel feedback has not been affected at present. The epidemic control has improved in recent days, which is expected to have no significant impact on the annual performance; In the past 21 years, the mature market in the province has grown steadily. The revenue of Huai’an / Nanjing region has increased by 18.03% / 19.80% year-on-year respectively, and that of areas outside the province has increased by 36.05% year-on-year, accounting for less than 7%. There is a broad space for development in the future; President Gu, the new chairman, took root in the market, made clear the advantages and disadvantages of the company’s business, and made clear the determination to expand outside the province. In the medium and long term, the company plans to achieve a revenue of 10 billion yuan in 2025 and strive for 15 billion yuan. It is optimistic that the five-year goal of the 14th five year plan will be completed in three years.
Yihai International: the plight of the sales side reversed and the leading share accelerated. Compound condiment is a scarce high growth track in food and beverage, and Yihai international is a big bull in food and beverage in 20172020. However, since 2020h2, the performance of the leading compound condiment has been lower than expected, and the stock price has been deeply adjusted. We believe that the high outlook of the industry has attracted a large number of new entrants in the short term, resulting in the intensification of the short-term competition pattern. Referring to the experience of pre mixed cocktails and other consumer goods, we believe that the industry will accelerate the clearing in the off-season of 2022q2, and the leader will win in the end. Yihai international has strong brand and channel advantages, and actively adjusts the brand, channel and R & D mechanism. The market share is expected to accelerate, and gradually form barriers with low cost and high efficiency. It is expected that the company will take off again. (1) Difficulties of the company: stalled growth, double killing of performance and valuation. The company’s revenue growth slowed down for two consecutive years. The outbreak in 2020 was dragged down by related parties, and the third-party growth was weak in 2021. Meanwhile, the gross profit margin of related parties began to decline in 2020, and the rising cost in 2021 eroded profitability. Since the performance of 2020h2 was lower than expected, the company’s share price has entered a deep adjustment. (2) Changes in the industry: the shuffle is coming to an end, and the leading share will accelerate. First, the polyphonic C-end remained prosperous and was not afraid of the downward economic growth. The sales volume of the 20202021 year Chai chafing hot pot bottom was 5.5%, which was only 3.4 PCT slower than 20182019 years. The main business was the traffic flow of the super canal people, while the slower the liquid milk, nuts, roasted goods, Baijiu, cooking oil, rice, soy sauce, puffed food, beer and quick-frozen food were slowed down by a smaller margin than the 20182019 year. In 2021, the channel will continue to destock, and the industry will resume healthy development in 2022. Referring to Japan, the GDP growth center moved downward from 1980s to 1990s, but the compound seasoning with higher added value continued to replace the basic seasoning. Second, the polyphonic track is extremely crowded in 2021, and the industry will speed up the liquidation when the off-season comes in 2022. 2020h2 Haitian launched composite condiment products, and other basic condiment enterprises in 2021h1 followed suit. At the same time, regional polyphonic companies began to expand nationwide, and short-term industry competition intensified.
The basic condiment leader is limited by the lack of product power and brand awareness. Due to the low input-output ratio, regional brands shrink back to the base market, the competition in 2021h2 industry slows down, and the marginal contraction of the sales cost rate of the compound leader. After the off-season of 2022q2 comes, the industry is expected to accelerate the liquidation. Third, referring to the development history of pre mixed cocktails, the national polyphonic leader has the first mover advantage, strong product power and rich matrix, and has established strong brand and channel barriers. After this round of reshuffle, it has increased its competitive advantage over other enterprises, and the long-term market share is expected to continue to increase. (3) Leading barrier: the advantages of brand and channel are stable, and actively adjust to meet the second take-off. First, Haidilao brand still has advantages. Chopsticks and kitchens guide the development of Chinese polyphony. Relying on the brand power of Haidilao, Yihai occupied the minds of consumers in the subdivided hot pot seasoning track, obtained the brand premium and realized the rapid growth of C-end. The company extended the product price band downward to accelerate the acquisition of market share, and the brand advantage of Haidilao shifted from high differentiation to high penetration. At the same time, the company has created a multi brand matrix to promote chopsticks and hand kitchens in Chinese compound seasonings, so as to reduce the risk of single brand. Second, the channel continues to be intensively cultivated and driven by high incentives. 2021h2 company has basically completed channel segmentation. On the one hand, it separates the dealers of seasoning and convenience food, on the other hand, it distinguishes NKA, Eka and distribution channels, and the overall operation efficiency continues to improve. Third, outstanding R & D capability and continuous optimization of mechanism. 2021h2 company has set up an “Innovation Committee” to coordinate the R & D team from top to bottom, pay attention to the long-term planning of category products and improve the success rate of products on the market. Fourth, the medium and long-term core competitiveness comes from cost leadership. This round of industry reshuffle will give Yihai international a window period to quickly increase its market share, and the scale gap with its competitors in the back echelon will be further widened, gradually forming a low-cost and efficient core competitiveness.
Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) : the price increase was fulfilled in 21 years and the flowers were waiting for 22 years. The company issued the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 5.985 billion yuan, yoy + 13.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 929 million yuan, yoy + 15.35%; Deduct 799 million yuan of non parent net profit, yoy + 15.95%. In Q4 alone, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 2.103 billion yuan, yoy + 28.39%; Net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 334 million, yoy + 21.46%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 308 million yuan, yoy + 31.57%. The company’s revenue of 21q1-q4 was 1.379 billion yuan, 1.001 billion yuan, 1.502 billion yuan and 2.103 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 20.22%, – 12.70%, + 10.71% and + 28.33% respectively. We expect that the acceleration of Q4 revenue is mainly due to the pre Spring Festival, the increase of price, the improvement of channel enthusiasm and the expansion of nut group purchase channel. In terms of products, the revenue of Guokui in 21 years was 3.943 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.86%, and the growth rate in the first and second half of the year was – 4.29% / 14.26%. Among them, the upgrading of red bag raw materials, the improvement of weak markets, the intensive cultivation of third and fourth tier and county and township markets, the expansion of overseas markets, the continuous breakthrough of blue bag flavor, the continuous enrichment of product matrix, channel expansion, brand joint branding, product customization, etc. all achieved sustained growth. The annual income of nuts in the 21st year was 1.366 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43.82%. The growth rate in the first and second half of the year was 50.52% / 40.63%, of which the sales of small yellow bags were nearly 1 billion, and the sales of small blue bags and daily nut oatmeal exceeded 100 million. In terms of channels, in 2021, the channel intensive cultivation strategy achieved initial results. The channel digital platform controlled nearly 120000 terminal outlets. At the same time, it continued to expand new channels, and made positive breakthroughs in new scenes and new channels such as to-b group purchase business, catering channel cooperation and nutritional catering business. The overall gross profit margin of the whole year was + 0.06pct year-on-year, which is expected to be mainly reflected in the upgrading of product structure, scale effect and price increase. In the 21st year, the company’s sales expense ratio was 10.10%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.33pct, and the annual expense investment was relatively stable. Overall, the net interest rate in the 21st year was 15.52%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.29pct. Looking forward to the future, products and channels continue to fission, and long-term development has support. Products: create the first high-end brand of “Kui Zhen”, and launch new flavors such as rattan pepper melon seeds, sea melon seeds and orange peel melon seeds in blue bag. Nuts take daily nuts as the strategic focus, create a nut gift product matrix, and incubate new high-end nuts and flavor nuts. In terms of channels: continue to promote the intensive cultivation of channels, build millions of terminals, differentiate products and marketing schemes, promote the promotion of vulnerable markets and the penetration of county and township channels, promote new channels such as 2B, catering and community group purchase, clarify the positioning of e-commerce channels, and focus on the Southeast Asian market overseas.
Sirio Pharma Co.Ltd(300791) : the fundamentals hit the bottom, and pay attention to the month on month improvement. The company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 22 years. In 21 years, the company realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company of 2.369 billion yuan / 232 million yuan / 210 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.62% / – 9.92% / – 5.61%. 21q4 realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company 621 million yuan / 315 million yuan / 246 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.22% / – 55.90% / – 59.71%; 22q1 realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company 421 million yuan / 232 million yuan / 210 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 17.01% / – 74.48% / – 91.80%. 1) The implementation of medical insurance policies and the impact of the epidemic on offline channels are expected to improve month on month. The income of 21q4 and 22q1 was mainly due to the implementation of the health food and medical insurance policy in some regions since the second half of last year, which superimposed the impact of the epidemic, resulting in the weak willingness of drugstores to purchase goods. Therefore, the growth rate of China’s business declined in the second half of the year 21 and January February of the year 22, of which the traditional dosage forms were more affected. At present, channel tracking shows that most of the country has implemented the new medical insurance policy, and the purchase intention of pharmacies and other channels has been picking up after destocking. In terms of overseas business, the decline in Europe has narrowed quarter by quarter, and a team for key customers in Europe is being established; The United States still maintains high-speed growth and is expected to promote product upgrading through new soft capsule technology; Other new markets are also expected to achieve rapid development through the agent model. From the base point of view, the epidemic situation in China in 21 years has gradually affected xianle drugstores and direct sales channels since the third quarter, and the base is relatively low in the second half of the year. The unlocking goal of equity incentive companies is to increase revenue by 70% in 22 years compared with 19 years, that is, by about 13% compared with 21 years. According to the current situation in the first quarter, it is necessary to achieve revenue of 2.264 billion in the next three quarters, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of about 22%. In conclusion, we believe that the revenue in the last three quarters of this year is expected to improve quarter on quarter. 2) The growth was driven by new dosage forms, and the new production capacity of soft candy began trial production in the second quarter. The growth rate of 21h2 dosage forms of the company is more balanced. Except for the double-digit decline of powder, the growth rate of other dosage forms is high single digits. After calculation, we believe that the decline in the growth rate of 21h2 new dosage forms is mainly due to the base fluctuation caused by the impact of epidemic situation and production capacity release in 20 years. Therefore, the annual growth rate is more directional. In the 21st year, the revenue of traditional dosage form soft capsules / tablets increased by 2% / 10% and that of new dosage form soft candy / functional drinks increased by 44% / 37%. We expect that the main driving force of future growth will still be the new dosage form. At the same time, the traditional dosage form will achieve single digit growth with the expansion of the industry and the increase of the leading market share
