In March, the auto market was stable and upward, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 24.7%
Affected by the epidemic factors in Shanghai, Jilin and other places, the year-on-year growth rate of the automobile market in March was under short-term pressure. However, due to the recovery of chip supply compared with February, the automobile market in March showed an upward trend compared with February. Automobile sales volume in March was 2.234 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.7% / month on month increase of + 28.4%. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in March was 484000, with a year-on-year increase of + 114.1% / month on month increase of + 43.9%. The penetration rate of 2022m3 new energy passenger vehicles reached 24.7%, with a month on month ratio of + 3.1pct.
Electrification boosted independent sales by 25.7% year-on-year
In terms of price, the market below 50000 yuan recovered in March, the market trend of 15 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 passenger cars continued to improve, and the penetration rate of new energy in the market above 200000 yuan increased significantly. By department, the sales volume of 2022m3 German and American Series decreased year-on-year, and the overall sales volume increased with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.7%, contributing to the sales volume of 913000 vehicles. The product strength and competitive willingness of independent car enterprises represented by Chang’an, Geely, great wall and Byd Company Limited(002594) continued to improve. The market share of 2022m3 independent passenger cars reached 49%, contributing to the steady growth of the market.
The epidemic restricts the release of independent leading production and marketing, and the resumption of production and work is progressing steadily, which is expected to alleviate the pressure of production and marketing
The epidemic blocked the supply chain and put short-term pressure on the production and sales of passenger cars. In March, the wholesale sales volume was – 0.6% year-on-year, down 10% from the 9.4% expected at the beginning of the year. In terms of factorial decomposition, the lack of core and the epidemic contributed – 5.4% and – 4.6% respectively. The resumption of production and work in Shanghai and Jilin has been gradually promoted. At present, Jilin has been fully socialized, FAW has fully started to resume work, and the resumption of supply chain production and work has been steadily promoted; Shanghai auto enterprises are steadily promoting the resumption plan. The pent up demand during the epidemic will be released one after another after returning to work, and the recovery of a new round of automobile cycle in 2022h2 will be more certain.
Market performance this week: this week, the A-share auto sector (shenwanyi industry) – 2.73%, weaker than CSI 300 (- 0.99%). The top five gainers of the auto sector this week were Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) (+ 9.80%), China Railway Materials Company Limited(000927) (+ 9.35%), Zhejiang Yueling Co.Ltd(002725) (+ 9.04%), Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) (+ 8.10%), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (+ 7.68%); The top five declines were Harbin Viti Electronics Corp(603023) (- 14.14%), Hunan Tyen Machinery Co.Ltd(600698) (- 15.01%), Rayhoo Motor Dies Co.Ltd(002997) (- 17.78%), Senci Electric Machinery Co.Ltd(603109) (- 18.95%) and ST lion (- 19.94%).
Investment suggestion: we believe that the depression of the current epidemic on the demand for passenger cars is expected to be delayed in 2022h2, which will accelerate the clock from “autumn and winter” to “spring”. Under neutral and optimistic assumptions, the auto industry is expected to enter a new round of recovery in 2022h2. In the recovery period, it is recommended to configure the passenger car sector with early cycle attribute. Based on the perspective of zugra cycle, the parts sector is expected to open a ten year old bull: it is expected that the industry will open a new round of zugra cycle in 2022, and the reconstruction and upgrading of parts will be the main driving force. At present, the parts sector continues to have low allocation. Under optimistic and neutral assumptions, the 2022h2 parts sector is expected to usher in a ten year old bull. Passenger car sector: it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities for systematic configuration of passenger car sector before and after the recovery period. Recommend Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , and Geely Automobile. Parts section: the parts section recommends leading companies of chassis by wire Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) . It is suggested to pay attention to companies related to the industrial chain Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) and Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) .
Risk tip: the rise of raw material cost is higher than expected, the chip supply is lower than expected, and the market recovery is lower than expected
