One week resumption:
This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) fell 6.53%, 5.54 percentage points behind the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.99%, and the gem index fell 4.26%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment fell by 5.88%, wind power fell by 6.67% and photovoltaic fell by 5.70%.
Photovoltaic:
In January and April, the supply of silicon material is still relatively short, and 2022q2 pays attention to the changes of overseas demand. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, under the background of accelerating the progress of new release capacity of silicon wafers, the situation of short supply of silicon materials continues. The price of silicon materials has increased for 13 consecutive weeks, and the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding has increased by 0.32% to 251500 yuan / ton month on month. It is expected that the tight supply and demand situation of silicon materials in April will continue and the price will remain high; On the other hand, Longji / Tongwei has successively raised the price of its silicon / battery chip. The price increase intention of component manufacturers is still strong, and the price of some orders has increased. At the current time, overseas demand is still the main force of the order demand of component manufacturers. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the demand in Europe (rising continuously) and the impact of the anti circumvention case of the United States on the demand in the United States.
2. In 2022q1, China's Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery export increased by 100.8%. The short-term disturbance of European and American policies will not change the long-term good trend of China's photovoltaic industry. On April 13, Li Kuiwen of the General Administration of Customs introduced that China's 2022q1 Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery export increased by 100.8%. China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry still has obvious advantages in terms of cost, scale and technological progress. In the short term, it may be difficult for other regions to achieve decoupling from China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry while vigorously developing the photovoltaic installation scale, Moreover, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the urgent need of the EU to accelerate energy transformation will continue to promote the rapid increase of its new energy installed capacity.
3. In terms of investment: (1) the demand boom in 2022q1 is improving, pushing up the prices of products in all links. With the release of upstream capacity in Q2, the prices of the industrial chain are expected to decline, and the end of the interest rate increase cycle in the first stage is superimposed. At the same time, China accelerates the construction of new infrastructure (photovoltaic, etc.), the photovoltaic industrial chain ushers in better allocation opportunities. It is recommended to focus on the leading Jingke energy, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) . (2) The price of some auxiliary materials may rise due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, structural supply and demand shortage and other factors. It is recommended to focus on Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , and pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) Under the background of industrial chain game, the supply and demand situation of large-scale products is relatively good. 210 product leaders are recommended from bottom to top. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in a high-speed development Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . (4) Overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first in the process of module price decline, with emphasis on Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power:
1. Shandong Province has made it clear that it will subsidize offshore wind power projects, and the development of China's offshore wind projects is expected to speed up. On April 1, the deputy director of Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau said that he would subsidize the "14th five year plan" offshore wind power projects completed and connected to the grid in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2024, which is the second province after Guangdong Province to explicitly subsidize the offshore wind projects; With the continuous decline of the bidding price of offshore wind turbines, the process of sea wind parity is expected to accelerate under the background of large-scale and domestic substitution; In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of offshore wind power in China is expected to exceed expectations during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
2. In terms of investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations and under the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the logic of profit recovery: focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk tips:
The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of the State Grid are lower than expected, resulting in the risk of blocking the installation and landing.
