External environment: the chain is better, and the market expectation is gradually changing. Overseas conflicts, expectations of interest rate hikes in the international market and repeated epidemics are the main concerns of institutional investors. The first two problems are the concerns that have been existing since this year, and the recurrence of the epidemic has a new impact at present. For example, compared with 2020, the epidemic has a more thorough impact on the supply chain and the expectation of people’s consumption ability, so that the market will worry that the epidemic will last for a long time and seriously affect consumption ability, and the market’s expectation of compensatory consumption and overall consumption is very low, Overall, it has led to a significant reduction in consumer confidence. From the current situation, with the decline of stocks, this concern has been gradually reflected in the stock price. External concerns will eventually be replaced by the growth value of the enterprise itself, the epidemic will always be overcome, and the economy will eventually develop for the better. At the same time, it will be gradually reversed after the strengthening of prevention and control and the gradual implementation of economic stimulus policies.
Prosperity index: the mismatch between supply and demand leads to the short-term pressure on Maotai’s wholesale price, and the time point may be in the middle and late April. In our earlier view, we also discussed that the current Maotai rating has reflected the actual supply and demand, and it will be more effective to take Maotai rating as an indicator of industry prosperity. The market relies too much on the correlation between the rating and the macro. Historically, there is a degree of fit, but it is similar and different every time. At the same time, the difficulty of macro analysis and prediction is much stronger than that of the industry itself. Instead of guessing how the macroeconomic trend is, it is better to analyze the supply and demand practically. More supply and weak demand are the reality. The next period of time is still the stage of supply and demand race. If the increment (new plan) and stock (shortage of goods caused by logistics) are released intensively and the demand has not recovered significantly, the wholesale price will still be under pressure. At the same time, the structural change will also affect the price of general aviation. In the first half of the year, general aviation is less and non-standard is more, and general aviation will increase the shipment later. After the short-term mismatch between supply and demand, the demand will pick up, the supply will be normal, and the wholesale price will stabilize or even rise. We expect the time point to be from mid and late April to early May. At that time, there will be much less concern about the boom, and the logical independence of the industry will be enhanced.
Plate boom rhythm: first deeply adjust the recovery logic after the repair of the target, which is ultimately driven by the wealth effect. We believe that the industry will advance according to the logic of first scenario recovery to drive rigid demand consumption, and then wealth effect to stimulate optional consumption. Industry investment can be divided into three stages: in-depth adjustment of target repair opportunities, recovery logic to drive the recovery of rigid demand, and wealth effect to stimulate the accelerated upgrading of high-end products or a new business cycle. There are still twists and turns in the industry boom in the near future, and the market game psychology is still very heavy. We believe that the bottom of the sector is established, but the process may be tortuous and upward. In the early stage of industry adjustment, the target of deep callback has repair opportunities. At present, there are still targets that belong to deep callback and continue to be recommended.
Investment strategy: with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the improvement of economic expectations, it is still the stage of deep correction and recovery. Such targets are subject to more callback in market adjustment due to their own special reasons, such as (1) event driven, such as slow implementation of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) incentive and unclear adjustment of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) sales; (2) During the fluctuation, the market is worried about the change of prosperity. For example, the beer scene is greatly damaged, but the prosperity is not affected. The secondary high-end has a strong beta effect, and the market is worried about its expansion logic; (3) The upward cost pressure worries about the long-term competitive advantage. In case of panic, it is more necessary to look forward to the long-term space and focus on finding the subject of deep correction of valuation with strong performance certainty in the general decline. Focus on recommending Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , and other core targets.
Risk warning: the impact of epidemic situation may be repeated; Demand recovery is not strong enough; Food safety issues; The scenario recovery did not meet expectations, resulting in more adjustment of the performance of the sector, and the increase in Maotai supply led to low expectations of the rated price, etc
