Sector market review
This week (04 / 11-04 / 15), the transportation index rose 0.9%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.0%, outperforming the market by 1.9%, ranking 6 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the express sector increased the most (5.4%), and the public transport sector decreased the most (- 4.2%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: the impact of the epidemic has gradually stabilized, and the recovery of express service can be expected. Since early March, the epidemic has been repeated in many places across the country, some transit centers and outlets have been shut down, express delivery has been interrupted in many places, and delivery delays and suspension have also occurred on some e-commerce platforms, which has a great impact on express service, and the express business volume is expected to decline. The State Post Office expects that the volume of express business in March is expected to decline by 2.5% year-on-year, and the revenue of express business is expected to decline by 4.4% year-on-year. The truck logistics intensity picked up month on month this week, and the recovery of express service is expected. The industry entered the off-season in March, and the price side remained stable. The performance of express delivery enterprises has entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the main business data from January to February 2022, with the completion of express business of 2.297 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; The operating revenue was about 7.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.36% S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) business strategy adjustment pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of capacity cycle gradually subsides, actively optimizes product structure and customer structure, lean cost control, Kerry Logistics promotes international business development, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development; With strong certainty in performance restoration, 21q4 made a profit of 2.471 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.01%, deducting non net profit of 1.501 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.07%. SF intends to repurchase some of the company’s shares for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive, and the number of shares repurchased accounts for 0.50% of the company’s current total share capital.
Logistics: the performance growth of chemical logistics is determined, and the demand of Tob supply chain is broad. There is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After the accidents such as Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and so on, the supervision becomes stricter, which limits the supply of the industry, the demand side still increases every year, and the performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) released the 2021 annual report and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 432 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50%. It is expected to maintain a high growth in the next two years. The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Airports: pilot prevention and control measures are optimized in some areas, and the specific effect needs to be tracked and observed. The epidemic is still spreading in many places this week, inhibiting the recovery of aviation demand. The flight rate of airlines’ passenger aircraft is less than 20%, resulting in high unit rigid cost. In April 2022, the ex factory price of China Aviation Kerosene (including tax) was 7499 yuan / ton, an increase of 52% over 2019. Since April 5, the fuel surcharge of air tickets on Chinese routes has been raised to 50 yuan or 100 yuan. The demand has not yet recovered, or it is difficult to effectively transmit the pressure of oil prices. According to Liaoning Daily, eight cities in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Dalian, Suzhou, Ningbo, Xiamen and Qingdao, as pilot areas for optimizing covid-19 epidemic prevention and control measures, will start a four-week pilot from April 11, including: (1) isolation and control measures for inbound personnel and close contacts will be reduced from “14 days of centralized isolation + 7 days of home monitoring” to “10 days of centralized isolation + 7 days of home monitoring”; (2) The unsealing standard of the sealed and controlled area was lowered from “negative for 14 consecutive days” to “negative for 10 consecutive days”. We believe that the optimization of epidemic prevention measures is still a pilot of precise prevention and control. Shortening the isolation time of entry / close contact personnel and relaxing the unsealing standards will reduce the pressure on the use of centralized isolation resources and help the rapid recovery of production and life. If the pilot effect is good, or it is expected to be popularized to the whole country, the specific effect needs to be tracked and observed. Major listed airlines and airports released the data of menstrual camp in March 2022. Affected by the epidemic situation in China, the decline expanded month on month. In the short term, the epidemic situation in China is still continuing, and the aviation department will reproduce large losses in the first quarter; At the same time, vaccines and covid-19 oral drugs will strengthen the covid-19 prevention and control system and help production and life return to normal. After the impact of the epidemic is eliminated, the airport operation of AVIC will be significantly improved and the investment value of the sector will be highlighted. Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
